People living in the northern parts of the US could experience a warmer, drier winter – while southern states could see more rain and snow as forecasters continue to track El Niño and its effects in the coming months.
El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has a major impact on world temperatures and weather patterns thanks to a band of warm water in the Pacific Ocean.
The El Niño phenomenon – which occurs in 2023-24 – can significantly affect the weather in different geographical regions of the US – and its effects usually peak in December.
It brings warmer water and causes the Pacific jet stream to move southward from its neutral position.
This shift typically results in the northern US being drier and warmer than usual – while the Gulf Coast and southeastern US are experiencing wetter than usual periods and increased flooding.
People walk on a frozen lake in Central Park in New York City on January 30, 2022. The El Niño phenomenon can significantly impact the weather in the United States – and its effects typically peak in December
Buffalo, New York, was hit by more than 120 inches of snow last winter. Forecasters say there will be a 70 percent change. El Niño will be “strong” this year – causing the northern US to be drier and warmer than usual – and at the same time the Gulf Coast and southeastern US will experience wetter periods than usual and more flooding
El Niño is one of three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has a major impact on world temperatures and weather patterns thanks to a band of warm water in the Pacific Ocean
And this wet weather can be crucial for states in the South like Texas and Mississippi, which often have rain-free months throughout the year. However, falling temperatures can cause this precipitation to turn into snow.
Forecasters say there is a 70 percent chance that El Niño will be “strong” this year.
The latest forecast update from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows there will be a typical El Niño weather pattern this winter – but there will be a belt of low pressure anomalies to the south.
Across North America, the ECMWF forecast – considered one of the most reliable – shows above-average temperatures for most of Canada.
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the northwestern United States and throughout the Upper Midwest between December and February.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, winter weather across the U.S. will average about three degrees above normal.
Matt Rosencrans, the climate center’s senior hurricane forecaster, said: “There are small signs that El Niño is starting to impact circulation over the Atlantic.”
In addition to temperatures, precipitation over the United States this winter will also be influenced by the Pacific weather system.
A skid steer loader plows snow in front of the Ohio Statehouse in Columbus, Ohio, as a severe winter storm brought freezing temperatures to the state in December 2022
Snow on the ground at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport in Texas in February 2021
Drier conditions will occur over the northwestern United States, around the Great Lakes and southwestern Canada, following an El Niño pattern.
The strong subtropical jet stream associated with El Niño will bring more rain and snow to the southern and eastern parts of the United States and the Plains.
In particular, increased snowfall will occur in portions of the lower Ohio River Valley.
But parts of the western U.S. and Midwest will see much less snowfall than usual, according to ECMWF modeling.
This is due to below average rainfall in these areas in the coming winter.
While the forecast considers a three-month average from December to February, different trends may occur towards the end of winter.
Icy conditions in Seattle in December 2022
Colder anomalies in the weather front become more visible in the southeast during January to March.
According to the modeling, this means there is more cold potential in the US during the middle and later parts of the 2023 to 2024 winter.
The winter of 2009 to 2010 was the last to see an El Niño of the same predicted strength as this year – so meteorologists are looking back to see how that period might play out.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2009 saw cold weather in the south-central United States and very wet weather on the East Coast.
There have been several snowstorms in the Northeast this winter.
Due to its location near the Atlantic Ocean, the area is sometimes subject to coastal storms other than El Niño.