The approach that Andrés Manuel López Obrador is now taking in relation to the succession not only clears the panorama and clears dark clouds, but also lays the foundation for what the Obradorismo will look like in its second season. And besides, it confirms that the phenomenon that has been the tabasco in political affairs is not just the product of circumstance or luck, but of a unique talent. Let’s see why.
What is the culmination of these presidential directives and what are the consequences? Briefly summarized, the new criteria are: Pre-candidates must relinquish their current responsibilities (before June 15) in order to participate in the pre-campaign; there will be a single poll and the criteria and definition of the polling station will have to be agreed between the four main contenders; The winner of the poll will be Morena’s presidential candidate, second place will be the coordinator of senators from 2024, the third will be the coordinator of deputies and the fourth will be part of the cabinet of the next government; The survey will take place in August and the results will be available in early September at the latest.
The implications of this approach change many things:
1.- It greatly reduces the risk of splitting the movement by laying the foundations for a much more even floor. By demanding the resignation of all those involved so that they can compete outside the institutions, he fulfills one of the demands made by Marcelo Ebrard; By requiring that the definition of polling stations (and probably questions) be decided by consensus among participants, the key objections and suspicions of the inevitable losers are allayed.
2.- Converts the succession not in handing over the post to a person but to a team. So far, the fight for Morena’s official candidacy has been understood as a “winner take all” fight, as is customary in gubernatorial competitions. But now the survey would not only define the head of the executive branch, but also that of the legislature. In doing so, López Obrador achieves several things at the same time: he enforces the idea that what follows is not a question of individuals but of a political and ideological current; It must not be forgotten that the coordinators of the legislature have traditionally emerged from a decision of the new president; On this occasion, however, they will have been rivals of that President (or President), and they would have been there with the intent of the movement’s founder. Incidentally, that would be an argument for the hypothetical event that Morena’s successor in the National Palace turns out to be a fiasco due to incompetence or disloyalty; In such circumstances, obradorismo from the legislature could partially qualify or neutralize the executive (not forgetting that the possibility of revoking the mandate midway through the six-year term would be in effect).
3.- While the role of the next president will be reduced, at least initially, in favor of the group, this will at the same time strengthen the new government’s ability to provide continuity to the Fourth Transformation. Because? One of the main concerns about the continuity of the 4T has always been the weakness of Obradorism when López Obrador is not at the helm. To put it quickly, whoever replaces López Obrador will not have the same charisma, popularity, power over the tribes on the left, or superiority over other real powers (military, governors, businessmen, union leaders, etc. ) have. Claudia Sheinbaum or Marcelo Ebrard lag behind in different ways, and I don’t say that to their detriment, but rather in recognition of the unique characteristics of López Obrador’s leadership. But together the deficit is smaller. If Sheinbaum remains in the presidency, Ebrard would be an exceptional political player among lawmakers and interest groups; and conversely, if Ebrard were the successor in the Palace, Sheinbaum would give him legitimacy among the Chambers’ workers.
Three weeks ago, I detailed here the merits of considering Ebrard’s scenario as Senators’ coordinator, assuming trends in Claudia’s favor persist. “The possibility of a position in his current rival’s cabinet seems unlikely to me, a position of subordination that would be uncomfortable for both. A more meaningful task might be to coordinate the Senate, as Ricardo Monreal has done during this six-year term. Sheinbaum would no doubt be a less powerful leader than López Obrador, and she will need a department of tremendous skill in the legislature to implement the next government’s budgets and initiatives. Ebrard’s professional skills, experience and connections with the opposition would make him the best candidate in the 4T for the job. And even better for him: They would put him on the platform for the 2030 competition. It’s not a natural scenario either, because the differences that have arisen between Claudia and Marcelo would have to be smoothed out, but it’s an option for López Obrador could judge favorably. He knows that no matter who wins, the next president will not have his strengths and therefore the momentum for transformation and governance could be weakened. A dumbbell Claudia and Marcelo, Executive and Legislative, could represent an interesting formula to face the many challenges and continue the change project of the 4T.” I don’t know if the President has read my column or not, but I am happy about it Coincidence. López Obrador is thinking of a much more important and ambitious project.
4.- By making a commitment for next September and forcing the four candidates to resign from their current posts, the President in practice manages to unite the four in the campaign team for another year. Not only that. He will have a long period of twelve months to mentor them and prepare them for the succession. I insist that this is how he ensures he is passing the baton to a team and not just one person (that he ultimately succeeds is something else: the roots of presidentialism are not insignificant).
5.- By offering more equal terms and designing a system where the winner doesn’t get everything, the President opens the way for the succession itself. Much more important than ensuring that a “loyal” gets the baton, it is that the movement stays together. In a way, this means the game is more open than just going all-in on a favorite. Though Sheinbaum leads polls of voting intent, Ebrard should see this redefinition of the rules as a real opportunity to compete with better odds. The competition will be good; There will be something for everyone, the question is what everyone takes with them.
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