Although everything will change in college football starting in 2024, the size and composition of the college football playoff selection committee will remain the same. So this is a plea to the 13 men and women tasked with picking and seeding the teams in the first season of the 12-team playoffs: don’t fuck up.
The selection committee gets a second chance at a first impression as the CFP expands from four to twelve teams. This is a real opportunity for a fresh start, a reassessment of values and a chance to prioritize certain criteria. In short, it’s time for the selection committee to comment on the strength of the schedule.
Reward the teams that stick to tighter schedules outside of the conference than their peers. Reward teams in leagues that play nine league games versus teams in conferences that have chosen to stay with eight.
Make. One point.
At the start of the four-team CFP era, the strength of the game plan was supposed to play a role, but it soon faded. And the easiest way for any Power 5 team to reach the CFP was to go undefeated. It didn’t matter who a team played or not, or how many conference games were scheduled. That also made it easy for the selection committee.
No team has ever made it into the foursome with two losses, not even the good teams who have tested themselves against Power 5 opponents in non-conference games away from home. There was no respect whatsoever for the attempt, and the selection committee made no effort to single out those teams that actually challenged themselves, while others played against FCS opponents and direction schools. We’ve all gotten too used to having single-loss unbeaten teams treated as the only true playoff contenders…because they were.
Make it clear now. If Georgia plays and loses in Oregon, don’t punish the Dawgs for playing a game most of their teammates wouldn’t dare. If Penn State has a nine-game conference schedule and Auburn has eight games and their resumes are otherwise similar, the Nittany Lions will outperform the Tigers.
College football needs a complete overhaul of its planning philosophy, and the quickest and most effective way to do that requires a selection committee willing to snub teams and explain it. That time is now.
Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny made his arguments to The Athletic as the conference released the 2024 and 2025 game schedules on Thursday.
“It’s very evident that the Big Ten — which was already a tough nine-game league — is going to become a nine-game gauntlet with the addition of USC and UCLA,” Kenny said. “We’re confident that the (new scheduling) model and nine games will send a strong message to the selection committee as they consider what their parameters will be in terms of a 12-team expanded playoff. That means playing meaningful games, playing more games against strong opponents, and playing like teams with quality and depth. This will really position us to be at the forefront of having eligible teams in the next CFP era.”
Hope Kenny is right. I’ve long advocated that the committee reward teams that play more challenging game plans, and it almost never does. I’ve long advocated that the committee select teams that play weak off-conference schedules and fewer conference games, and it doesn’t really matter.
For this reason, the SEC is not moving to a nine-game league schedule. Sure, there’s the coin; The League wants to be paid more for additional inventory. But there is also the CFP piece. It didn’t hurt any SEC team for the conference to play eight games, and if it’s never kept anyone away, why make schedules harder for everyone? Sticking to eight gives SEC teams looking to throw a cupcake in mid-November a rest. It also allows mid-sized SEC teams to host bowl games. It’s a win-win situation.
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Unless the selection committee actually compels the SEC to act, there is no urgent need to change anything. A one-year transition plan could easily become two or more. As long as the selection committee doesn’t snub a team over an eight-game schedule, the status quo won’t change.
So make a point.
The men’s basketball committee scores points all the time. This group has been known to miss out on bubble teams with horrendous numbers outside of conference strength. These committee members placed the top 25 caliber teams worse than expected due to hot competition in the part of the schedule they control, the non-conference.
For the past decade, the basketball committee has transformed the way the entire sport approaches planning because it has validated its statements and stuck to its stated principles. Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen, the men’s basketball committee chairman for the 2017-18 season, told me back in 2021 that the committee also subsequently reached out to head coaches and athletic directors of teams that ended up on the wrong side of the bubble as well as those who might be upset at their seeding to explain what had happened.
That kind of intentional communication — that of top-flight tournament snubs from 2014 SMU (with a non-conference schedule strength ranked 302nd in Division I) through to 2019 NC State (last in non-conference schedule strength) hammered home – led to a fundamental shift in the way the tournament contenders are scheduled.
“People need to understand the consequences,” Rasmussen said. “When you play a few lower caliber teams to get home games or you play a few lower caliber teams to get your entire roster in the game or for a bye week, a prep week, you have to understand the negative implications of that . Good opponents and the place where you play deserve special mention.”
It’s time football followed suit. It’s a big responsibility that I would gladly give to the 13 members of the selection committee, but I know they are up to the challenge. Such an effort can take years, as so many non-conference football matches are set far in the future. The SEC may not deviate from its eight-game model even if pressure is applied.
But there is no better time than now to take the issue forward. Why not at least try?
(Photo from College Football Playoff Title Game between Georgia and TCU: Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)