The preliminary results of the parliamentary election count in Poland confirm the political shift announced by the election polls: the ultra-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) is in first place – with 36.8% of the vote against 82.9% of the vote , as of 6:00 p.m. – but far from the parliamentary majority. The three opposition parties, however, received 52.2.6% of the vote, which was enough to form a government. As the party with the most votes, PiS will do everything it can to repeat a third consecutive term, even if it does not have the necessary numbers, in a situation reminiscent of the failed inauguration of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in Spain. It is the responsibility of President Andrzej Duda to instruct the formation of the government. His closeness to Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s party suggests that he will invite him to get ahead of the opposition, despite not having enough support. The process until there is a new board can take until December.
A day after the parliamentary elections, which saw a historic voter turnout in Poland – 73.6% according to the count – the official count is still ongoing and is expected to be available on Tuesday. The partial results indicating the voting percentages are approaching those of Ipsos for the three main television networks as the count progresses, based on the 90 percent count in the same voting centers where the election polls for three television networks were carried out this Sunday. The rightmost bloc with PiS and Confederation would add 211 seats (196 and 15 respectively), according to the demographic company. The liberal opposition, mostly from the center-right although it also unites the left, reaches 249 MPs, 18 more than the absolute majority of 231 needed to form a stable government. The PO, led by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, would have 158; The Third Way coalition, the big electoral surprise, would get 61 deputies and Izquierda 30.
While we wait for the official results, delayed in these elections by the failed referendum on pensions, privatizations and migration according to the polls, everything is still moving in the field of hypotheses. Both parties celebrate their results with the data already known and hope that Duda will entrust them to form a government. PiS because parliamentary custom dictates that the winner tries first; PO because he is the one who leads the bloc with a majority in the Sejm (lower house of the Polish Parliament) and has the best chance of winning an executive.
The president released a message on Monday morning thanking him for the high turnout. He did not specify who he would invite to form the government, but before the elections it was he who recalled that parliamentary custom indicates that the party receives the most votes. “We cannot deny the winners the right to form a coalition,” said Andrzej Dera, state secretary in the presidential office, after the election. Pawel Szrot, head of the presidential office, acknowledged on Monday that “this time the situation could be complicated.”
If the PiS wins the presidential mandate and fails in the vote in the Sejm, the parliamentary majority can propose a candidate. Kaczynski’s party will not give up power so easily, even if it does not have the necessary support now. “Days of struggle and tension await us,” the deputy prime minister said after learning of the election polls. Kaczynski is known for his generosity in negotiations and for seeking support even from ideological opposites. But even if he gets the votes of the far-right Confederation, an anti-establishment party that insists it will never form a coalition with PiS, he would still need the support of 20 more MPs.
Members of the ultra-conservative party point to the Polish People’s Party (PSL) as a possible partner, the agrarian formation which, together with Polska 2050, is part of the Third Way coalition. “If PiS is given the task of forming a government, then…” There will be talks,” he replied. This Monday, Joachim Brudzinski, PiS chief of staff, asked about this possibility in an interview. PSL spokesman Milosz Motyka quickly ruled out any possibility on the social network X (formerly Twitter): “Forget it. For these lies, for these slanders, for the hatred and spitting on us all, for the thefts and all the scandals… We will hold you accountable!
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difficulties
Experts estimate it would take several weeks until December to form a new Liberal government. Jacek Kucharczyk, president of the Institute of Public Affairs think tank, warns that “law and justice will continue to control the institutions, at least until the new parliament is formed.” The sociologist and political analyst, who hasn’t slept an eyelid until the results arrive in a timely manner, distrusts the PiS. “I am sure they will be extremely creative to make it more difficult to form an opposition government and if that happens they will make life very difficult for him.”
As Kucharczyk reminds, after eight years in power, Kaczynski’s party has control of the Constitutional Court – with the power to veto any legislation – and the Supreme Court, which must validate election results within 90 days. In addition, the seats added by the liberal parties are not enough to override the presidential veto of the new laws, which requires three-fifths of the chamber, or 276 seats. The president has even used this prerogative against the PiS, so it could make life difficult for a new government if he decides to exercise it until the end of his term in office, in May 2025. During the presidency he can moderate his behavior.
In any case, the new coalition does not expect a red carpet. Political analyst and author Aleksander Smolar points out that it will not be easy to get along between “four heterogeneous parties with very ambitious leaders.” On issues such as abortion, for example, PO and Izquierda support liberalization up to the 12th week, while the Christian conservative members of Third Way propose a referendum.
Smolar is convinced that the experience of eight years in the opposition has taught them to act together and first to ensure “an improvement in relations with the European Union, with Germany, with other partners such as France and with Ukraine”. In domestic politics, he believes that “without the possibility of presidential interference” they will take immediate measures to change the leadership of entities controlled by PiS and used for partisan purposes, primarily public media and companies like Orlen . The expert assumes that once the coalition gets going, it “will not be easy to govern because the PiS is leaving the country in a very bad state.”
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