WASHINGTON – As they impose historic sanctions on Russia, the Biden administration and European governments are setting new goals: devastating Russia’s economy as a punishment the world must witness, and creating internal pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end its war in Ukraine. , say current and former US officials.
The harsh penalties that hit the ruble, shut down Russia’s stock market and cause banks to run out, contradict previous statements by US officials that they would refrain from hurting ordinary Russians. “We are targeting them carefully to avoid even targeting the average Russian civilian,” Dalip Singh, deputy national security adviser on international economics, told a White House briefing last month.
The escalation of sanctions this week happened much faster than many officials expected, largely because European leaders adopted the most aggressive measures proposed by Washington, US officials said.
With the collapse of the Russian economy, large companies – Apple, Boeing and Shell among them – have suspended or ceased operations in the country. The Biden administration said Thursday it would not offer easing of sanctions amid Putin’s increasingly brutal offensive.
The view among some American and European officials is that Mr Putin could end the war if enough Russians protest in the streets and enough tycoons turn against him. Other US officials have emphasized the purpose of the punishment and future deterrence, saying the corpse of the Russian economy will serve as a visible consequence of Mr Putin’s actions and a warning to other aggressors.
But Russia’s $ 1.5 trillion economy is the 11th largest in the world. No country has tried to push an economy of this size to the brink of collapse with unknown consequences for the world. And the actions of the United States and Europe could pave the way for a new type of conflict between the great powers in the future.
The moves also sparked questions in Washington and European capitals about whether Russia’s cascading events could lead to a “regime change” or a collapse of the government, which President Biden and European leaders are careful to avoid mentioning.
“This is not a war of the Russian people,” said Secretary of State Anthony J. Blinken at a press conference on Wednesday. But, he added, “the Russian people will suffer the consequences of electing their leaders.”
“The economic costs we have been forced to impose on Russia are not aimed at you,” he said. “They aim to force your government to stop its actions, to stop its aggression.
The harshest sanctions so far have prevented Russia’s central bank from using much of its $ 643 billion foreign currency reserves, leading to a sharp drop in the ruble’s value. There was panic all over Russia. Citizens are struggling to withdraw money from banks, preferably in dollars, and some are fleeing the country.
The United States and Europe also announced new sanctions this week against oligarchs with close ties to Putin. Officials are moving to confiscate houses, yachts and their private jets around the world. French officials on Thursday grabbed the giant yacht of Igor Sechin, chief executive of Rosneft, Russia’s state oil giant.
“The sanctions have turned out to be quite unprecedented,” said Maria Snegovaya, a visiting scientist at George Washington University who is studying US sanctions against Russia. “Everyone in Russia is terrified. They are trying to figure out the best way to keep their money. “
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Mer has used some of the harshest languages to date to formulate the mission, saying in a radio program Tuesday that Western nations are “waging a full economic and financial war against Russia” to “cause the collapse of the Russian economy”. He later said he was sorry for his words.
Evidence of shock and anger among Russians – mostly anecdotal in a limited-speech country and few opinion polls – has raised the specter of mass political dissent, which, if strong enough, could threaten Mr Putin’s grip on power.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, told Fox News: “The best way to end this is to have Elliott Ness or Wyatt Earp in Russia, the Russian Spring, so to speak, where people rise and fall.”
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March 4, 2022, 1:31 p.m. ET
Mr Graham added: “So I hope someone in Russia understands that he is destroying Russia and you must remove this person in all possible ways,” he said. his post on Twitter on Thursday, calling for Mr Putin’s assassination.
A spokesman for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Monday that the sanctions were “intended to overthrow the Putin regime”. Mr Johnson’s office quickly corrected the statement, saying it did not reflect the views of his government and that the measures were aimed at stopping Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
Michael A. McFaul, a former US ambassador to Moscow, called the talks to overthrow Putin useless, stressing that sanctions should be adapted and described as a means of stopping the invasion. “The goal must be to end the war,” he said.
But while the Biden administration said it was still open to diplomacy with Russia, it did not propose lifting any of the sanctions in exchange for de-escalation.
“Right now, they are marching to Kyiv in a convoy and continue to take alleged barbaric steps against the people of Ukraine,” Jen Psaki, a White House spokeswoman, said Thursday. “So, no, now is not the time to offer options to reduce sanctions.
But in an interview Friday with Russia’s TASS news agency, Victoria J. Nuland, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, suggested conditions for a possible easing of sanctions, albeit maximalist ones. She said Mr Putin must end the war, help “rebuild” Ukraine and recognize its sovereignty, borders and right to exist. These are conditions that the Russian leader is unlikely to take into account.
All the while, Biden’s staff tried to reassure the Russian people that they did not enjoy their suffering. The United States and Europe have tried to save the Russians some of the effects, including allowing consumer technology sales to Russia despite lifting new export restrictions.
They also refrained from imposing energy sanctions on Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and the risk of higher oil prices.
However, Mr Putin and his aides are doing their best to find some political advantage in sanctions, arguing that the real goal for the West has always been to weaken Russia. As he launched his invasion last week, Mr Putin said the United States would sanction his country “no matter what”.
The war between Russia and Ukraine: key things you need to know
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Russian profits in the south. After taking control of Kherson and cutting off the city of Mariupol, Russian forces penetrated deeper into southern Ukraine, landing in the port of Nikolaev, just 60 miles from Odessa, a vital shipping center and the largest city in the south.
In an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the sanctions were aimed at “targeting ordinary people” and that the West had cut off cultural exchange programs and even Russian sports teams.
Whatever their exact purpose, sanctions have a bad experience in persuading governments to change their behavior. The Trump administration’s sanctions against Iran, perhaps the harshest imposed on any country, have failed to force Tehran to stop supporting militias in the Middle East or to stop uranium enrichment efforts after President Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear agreement. North Korea has continued its nuclear weapons program despite heavy sanctions from four US presidents.
The same is largely true of US sanctions against Syria, Cuba and Venezuela.
Sometimes the US government achieves modest goals with sanctions. Some analysts and US officials say Iran has begun talks on a nuclear deal after the Obama administration imposed sanctions. Trump administration officials said the sanctions helped force Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader, to meet with Mr. Trump (along with Twitter messages and letters between the leaders).
And some former Obama officials, including those now serving in the Biden administration, say sanctions against Russia in 2014 helped dissuade Mr Putin from pushing deeper into Ukraine after annexing Crimea and a separatist war broke out in the east of the country.
This winter, the Biden administration used the threat of sanctions to try to stop Mr Putin from invading Ukraine. He warned that the measures would be strict, but did not go into details. U.S. officials have not publicly mentioned the possibility of sanctioning Russia’s central bank – the harshest sanction ever imposed – because they were unsure whether European nations would be on board, a former U.S. official said.
After the United States, Britain and the European Union announced sanctions against the central bank, the ruble fell sharply on Monday. The bank no longer has access to foreign exchange reserves outside Russia, so it cannot use these assets to buy rubles and maintain its value. The finance ministry has also imposed sanctions on some Russian state-owned companies that hold foreign currency that the central bank can use.
As its economy trembled, Russia stopped trading on its stock market. In a Russian news program, Alexander Butmanov, an investment analyst, toasted and said: “Dear stock markets, you were close to us, you were interesting. Rest in peace, dear comrade. “
Some Russians drove to the border this week with bags of money.
But if the purpose of the sanctions is to force Putin to end his war, then the end point seems far away.
“Russia’s political system does not depend on the approval of the people. That matters, but it’s not the most important thing, “said Ms. Snegovaya. “It may depend on the scale of the crisis – if we see a lot of protests in the streets, it could make the Kremlin think twice.