China is taking lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine that make it poised to use force against Taiwan, the CIA chief said Wednesday. “It seems to us that (the war in Ukraine from Beijing’s perspective) doesn’t really affect the question of whether the Chinese leadership might use force against Taiwan in the next few years, but rather when and how they will do so.” said US intelligence chief Bill Burns.
Speaking as a guest at the Aspen Security Forum in the United States, he nonetheless put into perspective the risks of President Xi Jinping taking action against Taiwan by the end of the year, while some believe such an outbreak is possible after a key meeting of the ruling Communist Party. “Such risks seem to be increasing for us as the decade progresses,” he said.
Read the file China stands before the world
Beijing is likely “disturbed” by watching the war in Ukraine, the agency chief analyzed, calling it a “strategic failure” for Vladimir Putin, who thought he could overthrow Kyiv in a week.
Bill Burns believes Beijing saw this as proof “that you don’t win quick, decisive victories” without throwing enough military weight into battle. “I think the lesson the Chinese leadership and military are learning is that in order to win it is necessary to bring together a broadly dominant force,” he said again, also citing the importance of “control of space through information.” ‘ and readiness for possible economic sanctions.
The CIA chief also took the view, in line with previous statements from Washington, that China, despite its verbal support, is not providing military support to Russia in its war in Ukraine.
The United States is concerned about Beijing’s increased military pressure in recent years on Taiwan, a democratic island that China considers part of its territory and has vowed to one day retake.