BRUSSELS (AP) — Although Russia lost influence and friends after the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1989, the nuclear superpower still controls some of its neighbors in Europe and keeps others in uneasy neutrality.
The Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine, and the humanitarian tragedy it has unleashed over the past two weeks, has angered the West with genuine support and sparked calls for a fundamental rethinking of how the geopolitical map of Europe should be redrawn in the future.
Fixing this in the realities of 2022 is much more difficult than it might seem at first glance. Pushing Ukraine, Europe’s second largest country, all the way into the fold of the West against Moscow’s will creates huge problems.
And the leaders of the European Union will face them during a two-day summit in Versailles near Paris starting on Thursday — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, forced to assess, when he surprisingly signed a formal bid for EU membership last week.
“The European Union will be much stronger with us. So that’s for sure,” Zelensky said in an emotional live broadcast at the European Parliament on Tuesday.
Yielding to pressure, he said: “So prove that you are with us. Prove that you won’t let us go. Prove that you are really Europeans.”
Compounding the EU problem, Moldova and Georgia, two small countries that also fear Russia’s vast influence, followed this course within a few days and also asked for membership.
The violence of the Russian invasion also spooked historically neutral countries such as Sweden and Finland, which are now seeing a resurgence in support for NATO membership and, in the case of Helsinki, are freeing themselves from Russian influence so strong that it has become a political nickname – “Finlandization”.
Within a few days, the generally accepted ideas about who and where is located on the geopolitical map of the continent were greatly shaken.
Despite the exciting opportunity, progress may be slow.
Many countries fear that expanding the bloc and changing traditional spheres of influence will bring the continent to the brink of all-out war. And there is no better example than Ukraine’s aspiration to join the 27-country EU, which could change the balance of blocs in Europe.
“There is no doubt that these brave people, who defend our values at the cost of their lives, belong to the European family,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, choosing her words carefully and avoiding a direct promise of membership.
Even if Ukraine enjoys overwhelming support among EU member states, granting membership is not automatic. The leaders of the eight eastern member states have officially declared that Ukraine “deserves an immediate prospect of EU membership.”
But others range from cautious to skeptical: Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said “every country in Europe can ask for it” and was quick to list huge bureaucratic hurdles ahead.
“It’s extremely sensitive. Member states are not all on the same wavelength,” said a senior EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity as he is not authorized to speak publicly about the political discussions going on behind the scenes.
Political repercussions could quickly arise at Versailles.
“The discussion about Ukraine’s accession to the EU could also easily become too heated, providing a golden opportunity for Euroskeptics to instill fear among voters,” said Pavel Zerka of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
Several countries point out that it is not good to give Ukraine immediate hope if any rash decision is made in the heat of battle. Calls for fast-track memberships run counter to institutional and political objections and some common sense.
In the past, it took years and sometimes decades to apply for membership. Turkey applied for membership in 1987 and has not even come close to membership. Four more countries are now candidates, but the EU has shown extreme reluctance to expand further east. Allow Ukraine to jump over others, ignite passions in the Western Balkans, where some are waiting for approval.
It often takes a year to 18 months for the European Commission to simply assess whether a country can be a candidate to start membership negotiations.
And to be admitted, potential newcomers will also have to absorb all the EU rules, from the principles of the rule of law to trade standards and fertilizers – about 80,000 pages of rules. In recent years, the EU has often pointed out that Ukraine’s anti-corruption measures remain ineffective.
And in addition, any candidate needs the unanimous approval of the current members, often allowing one nation to decide the fate of the entire process.
In comparison, the transition to NATO membership, especially for countries such as Sweden and Finland, will be easier, since these two countries already work very closely with the military alliance.
However, the formal move will certainly provoke the wrath of Moscow and be perceived as a geopolitical power game.
“Obviously, the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, which is primarily a military organization, will entail serious military and political consequences that will require reciprocal steps from the Russian Federation,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
But somehow this northern neutrality may already be eluding.
“Sweden and Finland have effectively given up their neutrality by sending military aid to Ukraine (deadly aid in Sweden’s case),” said Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute.
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