Selection Sunday is here. It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for.
At the end of the night we will have the 68 teams for the NCAA Division I women’s basketball tournament and the projections below will be just a reminder of what I did wrong.
But joking aside, here’s a quick preview of the Selection Show and what interests me the most.
South Carolina and Indiana are locks on the #1 line, in that order. After them, four teams (Stanford, Iowa, Virginia Tech, and UConn) appear to be contenders for the final two No. 1 seeds.
I think Stanford has the strongest overall resume, but they’re also the only team in the group that couldn’t win their conference tournament, falling to UCLA in the Pac-12 semifinals. Could that put the cardinal in second place?
Will the committee favor Iowa’s top-flight wins (three combined against Indiana and Maryland) or Virginia Tech’s higher NET Top 25 win record? And what about UConn, which ranks #2 on the NET? We only saw them 7th overall in the last top 16 reveal, but the Huskies brought in Azzi Fudd for the Big East tournament and looked like a top contender again.
I’m curious to see if Texas move up to 3rd place and who are the final 4th place hosts on the first weekend of the tournament. Since my last update, North Carolina has replaced Oklahoma for the final No. 4. Could either Tennessee or Washington State make that jump after big conference tournament results?
Around the bubble, both Middle Tennessee and Princeton won Saturday’s car bids to seal their spots in the field. Will Columbia stick with it and give us two teams from the Ivy League?
There are many interesting decisions to be made on the #10 and #11 lines, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if any team ended up in my first four out in the tournament, although all other teams would certainly be .
One of the most interesting cases is Oregon, a 17-14 team that is 0-8 against NET top 25 opponents but still has a NET ranking of 19 themselves. It seems unlikely that a team would make the field with their results, but at the same time it would be remarkable for a team with a top 20 NET to end up in the WNIT.
NET and SOS data accurate as of Sunday morning. Double asterisks (**) represent teams that won their conference tournaments.
No. 1 seed
- **South Carolina (SEC): 32-0, NET 1, SOS 19
- Indiana (Big Ten): 27-3, NET 5, SOS 22
- Stanford (Pac-12): 28-5, NET 4, SOS 8
- **Iowa (Big Ten): 26-6, NET 6, SOS 7
No. 2 seeds
- **Virginia Tech (ACC): 27-4, NET 9, SOS 18
- **UConn (Great East): 29-5, NET 2, SOS 1
- Maryland (Big Ten): 25-6, net 13, SOS 6
- Utah (Pac-12): 25-4, NET 7, SOS 25
No. 3 seeds
- LSU (SEC): 28-2, NET 3, SOS 76
- Ohio State (Big Ten): 25-7, NET 16, SOS 13
- Notre Dame (ACC): 25-5, NET 8, SOS 29
- Duke (ACC): 25-6, NET 10, SOS 10
No. 4 seeds
- Texas (Big 12): 25-9, NET 11, SOS 41
- Villanova (Great East): 28-6, NET 12, SOS 53
- UCLA (Pac-12): 25-9, NET 22, SOS 9
- North Carolina (ACC): 21-10, NET 21, SOS 3
No. 5 seeds
- Oklahoma (Big 12): 25-6, Net 38, SOS 48
- Colorado (Pac-12): 23-8, NET 23, SOS 23
- Tennessee (SEC): 23-11, NET 15, SOS 4
- **Washington State (Pac-12): 23-10, NET 30, SOS 12
No. 6 seeds
- **State of Iowa (Big 12): 22-9, NET 14, SOS 15
- Arizona (Pac-12): 21-9, NET 27, SOS 26
- Michigan (Big Ten): 22-9, NET 26, SOS 27
- NC state (ACC): 20-11, NET 17, SOS 2
No. 7 seeds
- State of Florida (ACC): 23-9, NET 24, SOS 56
- Louisville (ACC): 23-11, NET 20, SOS 14
- USC (Pac-12): 21-9, NET 31, SOS 37
- Creighton (Great East): 22-8, NET 18, SOS 38
No. 8 seeds
- South Florida (American): 26-6, NET 35, SOS 77
- State of Oklahoma (Big 12): 21-11, NET 46, SOS 52
- Gonzaga (WCC): 28-4, NET 44, SOS 96
- Ole Miss (SEC): 23-8, NET 25, SOS 63
No. 9 seeds
- Baylor (Big 12): 19-12, NET 32, SOS 31
- Marquette (Great East): 21-10, NET 41, SOS 42
- Miami (ACC): 19-12, NET 50, SOS 47
- Purdue (Big Ten): 19-10, NET 49, SOS 51
No. 10 seeds
- West Virginia (Big 12): 19-11, NET 60, SOS 50
- St. John’s (Great East): 22-8, NET 55, SOS 75
- **Middle Tennessee (C-USA): 28-4, NET 28, SOS 205
- Alabama (SEC): 20-10, NET 29, SOS 64
- Illinois (Big Ten): 22-9, NET 42, SOS 73
No. 11 seeds
- **State of South Dakota (Summit): 28-5, NET 34, SOS 102
- **Princeton (Ivy): 23-5, NET 40, SOS 83
- Columbia (Ivy): 23-5, NET 47, SOS 92
- Kansas (Big 12): 19-11, NET 37, SOS 66
- **UNLV (MWC): 31-2, NET 51, SOS 238
No. 12 seeds
- **Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN): 32-3, NET 36, SOS 229
- ** Drake (MVC): 22-9, NET 52, SOS 101
- **Toledo (MAC): 28-4, NET 67, SOS 154
- **Portland (WCC): 23-8, NET 79, SOS 87
No. 13 seeds
- **Cleveland State (Horizon): 30-4, NET 69, SOS 254
- **East Carolina (American): 23-9, NET 90, SOS 124
- **Sacramento State (Big Sky): 25-7, NET 86, SOS 326
- **Gardner-Webb (Big South): 29-4, NET 138, SOS 314
No. 14 seeds
- **Saint Louis (Atlantic 10): 17-17, NET 135, SOS 112
- **James Madison (Sun Belt): 26-7, NET 101, SOS 316
- **Iona (MAAC): 26-6, NET 149, SOS 351
- **Southern Utah (WAC): 23-9, NET 133, SOS 110
No. 15 seeds
- **Hawai’i (Great West): 18-14, NET 147, SOS 151
- **Vermont (Americas East): 25-6, NET 143, SOS 324
- **Norfolk State (MEAC): 26-6, NET 164, SOS 335
- **Holy Cross (Patriot): 24-8, NET 162, SOS 325
No. 16 seeds
- **SE Louisiana (Southland): 21-9, NET 159, SOS 147
- **Tennessee Tech (OVC): 22-9, NET 169, SOS 315
- **Chattanooga (SoCon): 20-12, NET 165, SOS 236
- **Southern University (SWAC): 18-14, NET 257, SOS 94
- **Monmouth (CAA): 18-15, NET 231, SOS 329
- **Sacred Heart (NEC): 18-13, NET 265, SOS 361
Last Four In
- Alabama (SEC): 20-10, NET 29, SOS 64
- Illinois (Big Ten): 22-9, NET 42, SOS 73
- Columbia (Ivy): 23-5, NET 47, SOS 92
- Kansas (Big 12): 19-11, NET 37, SOS 66
First four out
- State of Mississippi (SEC): 20-10, NET 39, SOS 71
- Arkansas (SEC): 21-12, NET 48, SOS 45
- Georgia (SEC): 21-11, NET 33, SOS 67
- Oregon (Pac-12): 17-14, NET 19, SOS 20