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Charlie CremeESPN.com
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- Charlie Creme projects the women’s NCAA tournament for ESPN.com.
The 2022 Women’s Final Four may sound a little familiar: three of the four teams competing in Minneapolis also reached the finals weekend a year ago. Also known: Three of the four teams are seeded in first place for the fifth time in a row. The Stanford Cardinal is the defending champion. The South Carolina Gamecocks are the nation’s No. 1 cable-to-cable team for 2021-22. The UConn Huskies are making their 14th consecutive Final Four appearance. And the Louisville Cardinals, the team that missed out on San Antonio last March, are traveling to their fourth national semifinals.
All four teams bring star power: South Carolina’s Aliyah Boston; Haley Jones and Cameron Brink from Stanford; UConn’s Paige Bueckers; and Hailey Van Lith of Louisville. But it’s their defense that brought them all here. Their Hoops stats rank all four among the top six defensive teams in the country. Points are awarded with bonus. So only one in 65 wins?
Here’s a look at how all four teams plan to lift the championship trophy Sunday night at the Target Center. The women’s Final Four will be played Friday on ESPN from 7 p.m. ET.
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Reason for joy: After 14 games this season, Van Lith was a 25.0% 3-point shooter who had more turnovers than assists. Now she is the first Louisville player with four consecutive 20-point games in the NCAA tournament. Van Lith’s enthusiasm and excitement at the Cardinals’ success was one of the stories of the tournament. More importantly, their goal-scoring carries their team’s offense.
Reason to worry: Emily Engstler is college basketball’s Swiss army knife. Her ability to lead a press, pull off steals (six against Michigan), block shots (1.8 BPG this season), and rebound with a double-digit clip (11.0 RPG in the tournament) is notable. According to Her Hoops Stats, she is the second best singles defender in the country. But in two of Louisville’s last three games, Engstler’s shooting has been terrible. A combined 4-of-22 against Gonzaga and Michigan helped both teams stay in their games against the Cardinals longer than they should have.
The Cardinals will win if… You can find some consistent attacks beyond Van Lith. Coach Jeff Walz knows his defense will deliver, so he’s said he’ll be comfortable if his team can only get 70 points. Louisville has only met that number twice in the tournament, one of those instances against Albany. Making it in the national semis against South Carolina seems unlikely, but if Engstler or Kianna Smith could have a good night of shooting, the surprise would be within reach.
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Monica McNutt and JJ Redick share who they think will take down the nets in Minneapolis.
Reason for joy: This is a scary defensive team. South Carolina leads the country in opponents’ field goal percentage, effective field goal percentage, and points per game. After forcing all those misses, the Gamecocks are the best defensive rebounding team in the nation and the best at making sure there are no second chances for the other team. Their first two opponents in the tournament — Howard and Miami — combined for just 54 points, and the Gamecocks have averaged 41.3 points over four games. Coach Dawn Staley has said publicly during the tournament that her offense hasn’t gained weight, but that her defense will go anywhere and still be great. She is spot on.
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Reason to worry: Shoot. As good as their defenses are, if the Gamecocks don’t make at least a few jumps, they’re vulnerable. A 30.8% 3-point ratio has gotten even worse in the NCAA tournament (26.1%). Destanni Henderson finally found her shot in the Elite Eight against Creighton; If she gets it to Minneapolis, South Carolina could take down the nets.
The Gamecocks win if… Boston gets touches. South Carolina’s plans work better when their Boston teammates get the ball in the post — like they did against Creighton. Against North Carolina, she took it upon herself to go to the offensive boards for a performance of 28 points and 22 rebounds (12 of them offensive). There’s plenty of scoring talent in this South Carolina team, but none of it was reliable when they returned to the SEC tournament.
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Three players score double digits for Stanford in a 59-50 win over Texas.
Reason for joy: The Cardinal has a chance to defend his title with two of the top three players in the Final Four: Jones and Brink. Jones is a 6-foot-1 point guard who’s equal parts dazzling passer and fierce rebounder. Brink is a 6ft 5 power forward with soft hands, agile feet and fierce shot blocking instincts. They’re the unicorns of college basketball, and they’re uniquely gifted.
Reason to worry: As good as they are, and as impressive as a 23-game winning streak in the Final Four is, the Cardinal sometimes has sizeable breaks. Their offense looked lost to Texas early in the regional finals. Her fourth quarter a game earlier, against Maryland, was a coach who told Tara VanDerveer she couldn’t even talk about it in a media setting. Whether it’s unresolved turnover problems (20 vs. Texas and 18 vs. Maryland), cold perimeter shooting (23.6% on 3-pointers in the Spokane Regional), or Brink’s nasty problems, Stanford remains vulnerable to all of these beings plenty to hold up against the elite competition in Minneapolis.
The cardinal wins if… The ball moves on offense. Keep an eye on Stanford’s assist-to-field-goal ratio. When the backdoor cuts click and the ball quickly switches sides of the court, the Cardinal’s offense is deadly and beautiful at the same time. However, they have moments when they settle for 3 seconds too easily or are forced into one-on-one rides. You’re not going to win the national title like that.
Reason for joy: A 14th consecutive Final Four is a good start. Considering eight players have missed at least two games this season through injury or illness – leading to coach Geno Auriemma picking 11 different starting line-ups – this run might be more satisfying than the previous 13. That Bückers looked like the reigning international Player of the year in the Bridgeport Regional Finals against NC State with 27 points — 15 of them in overtime — for the first time since her knee injury in December, is another reason to be optimistic that UConn can win its first national championship since 2016.
Reason to worry: Dorka Juhasz suffered a serious wrist injury in the first half against the Wolfpack that will sideline the 6ft-4 senior for the remainder of the tournament. Without them, Aaliyah Edwards and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are the only two bigs Auriemma has available. When playing NC State’s Elissa Cunane, Edwards fouled and Nelson-Ododa played the fourth quarter and overtime with four fouls, a status that significantly diminished Nelson-Ododa’s defensive aggressiveness. Stanford’s frontline is even bigger. Edwards and Nelson-Ododa both need to stay on the ground for the huskies to compete indoors.
The Huskies win when… Azzi Fudd remains involved. Auriemma clearly trusts his freshman guard. Fudd played 49 minutes against NC State. She also penetrated, passed and shot with as much confidence as she has all season. This UConn team doesn’t have the margin for error that some of their old teams did, so Buckers and Christyn Williams will need to be as good or better to beat the Cardinal for a spot in the national finals.