World news today: Berlusconi, Tunisia, Ukraine Limes

Detail of an article by Laura Canali – see the full version here

06/12/2023

The geopolitical recap of the day.

• Silvio Berlusconi he died at the age of 86. The four-time Prime Minister of the Italian Republic, founder and senator of the centre-right party Forza Italia and entrepreneur died at the San Raffaele Clinic in Milan, where he was hospitalized for a few days.
  From our archive: Berlusconi in the world

• Europe in Tunisia – The European Union is studying the possibility of offering Tunisia around 900 million euros to support its economy, manage the borders of the North African country and ensure the development of digital and energy infrastructures. The package of more than a billion euros, which the Twenty-Seven will discuss at the summit at the end of June, was announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-signed issued a joint statement with Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed aimed at “creating tangible benefits between the EU and Tunisia”. Objective: to contain the political, economic and social crisis that the North African country is increasingly facing and to avoid any impact on the migration level. The data is already worrying: between January and April 2023, around 24,000 people arrived in Italy from Tunisia by sea (just over 30 migrants from Tunisia had landed in all of 2022). The relationship between Saïed and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further aggravates the situation. Tunisia accepted a loan from the International Economic Organization but later turned down the loan terms, arguing that demands for subsidy cuts and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises risked sparking further social unrest. The country’s trade deficit rose 28.5% to over $740 million in April. The economic damage caused by the conflict in Ukraine and the slow recovery after Covid-19 are also having an impact. The domestic political situation has also deteriorated, revealing internal fault lines between the regime in power and the opposition: Ennahdha party Shura Council member Sahbi Atig, arrested by the Tunisian army on May 6 last year for his political position would do so lying in the hospital intensive care unit for days after a hunger strike. However, nothing will change in President Saïed’s position: “Migrants will not be exchanged for loans because that would be inhumane and unacceptable.” The European loan of 900 million euros would in fact be linked to the achievement of an agreement between Tunisia and the IMF. A negative verdict also comes from the Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES), which recalled that “Europe does not see Tunisia as a country that needs cooperation based on authentic democracy, rights and freedoms, but simply as a border point , which requires more. Help to curb immigration, with the ultimate goal that no one can reach Europe.

• Ukrainian War – Counteroffensive – While In recent days, Ukraine’s armed forces have launched a series of heavy attacks against the Russian Federation’s vulnerable defenses. The Kiev army thus recaptured several villages both in Zaporizhia Oblast and in Donbass (Bakhmut region and Donetsk sector). The Ukrainian initiative saw the first use of sophisticated Western vehicles such as the German Leopard 2 tanks and the US Bradley infantry vehicles. Both the Germanic tanks and the American armored vehicles suffered destruction or damage, according to information or propaganda channels of Russian origin. Euro-Atlantic military assets are undoubtedly indispensable for Kyiv, but they can hardly be described as a game changer (turning point) of the conflict. In any case, the villages recaptured from free Ukraine are several kilometers away from the real Russian defense system consisting of several rows of minefields, trenches, bunkers and dragon’s teeth. The Ukrainian attacks on three or four fronts can therefore be seen as an opportunity to test the occupiers’ defenses and find the real weak point where an impending maximum pressure can be applied to break through the enemy lines.
  The strongest message comes from the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, who called for silence on the population and fighters impactful videos shared on the major social networking platforms. The clip has a double meaning: to create a feeling of insecurity and imminent danger in the enemy and to urge the population not to disclose useful information about ongoing operations. But perhaps it also serves to deny any responsibility in the event of a fiasco or partial success of the much-heralded “spring counteroffensive” (summer usually begins on June 1 in Ukraine) given the trajectory and scope of the Die War initiative was never publicly declared by senior officials in Kiev. A pretty clever way to avoid having to justify yourself if the counterattack doesn’t bring the desired results.

• Ukrainian War – Germany – During a speech at the Evangelical Church Congress in Nuremberg, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that after a long time he would like to telephone Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I plan to do it again soon,” said Scholz, “Putin must understand that Russia must withdraw its troops.” He himself is not against negotiations, but the decisive factor is “with whom and about what.” The development is interesting because Scholz is a pro-negotiationist, part of a current that has been forced to bite its tongue in Germany so far. A dialogue with the Kremlin, albeit with the intention of not complying with Russian demands, could mark the beginning of a new phase in the domestic German debate.

• Cuba between China and the United States – The Chinese spy base in Cuba already exists and has been functioning for some time. While White House spokesman John Kirby commented on the report, published Thursday by The Wall Street Journal, as “inaccurate,” it was an anonymous White House official who added that “the Biden administration has inherited this problem from other administrations “. “In fact, in 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) undertook an upgrade of its intelligence gathering facilities in Cuba. This is well documented in intelligence records,” the official said. Therefore, President Biden ordered to deal with the problem: “In a few months we have done it and achieved results, so much so that today the People’s Republic of China is not where it had hoped and is therefore trying to increase its presence in Cuba According to the Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party newspaper, the news is “unfounded, it once again demonstrates the dual personality of the United States in foreign affairs” and “the uproar carries the risk that the uproar over the Spy balloon repeated in US. “Heaven”. A position already expressed by Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, which through its spokesman Wang Wenbin on June 9 defined Americans as “experts in chasing shadows and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries.” After an initial statement on June 8, Cuban Foreign Minister Carlos Fernando de Cossio reiterated the news on twitter: “The American speculation continues and is apparently encouraged by some media to cause harm and concern without providing evidence.”
  Read more: China tries to invade Cuba to extort concessions

• Honduras between China and Taiwan – On June 11, Honduran President Xiomara Castro’s trip to mainland China ended. The head of state of the last country to recognize the People’s Republic of China and sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan said: “There is enormous potential and broad development prospects for bilateral economic and trade cooperation.” Subsequently, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his counterpart Enrique Reina entered the Honduran embassy in Beijing. Chinese penetration of the Americas continues and is not just affecting Cuba.

Charter of Laura Canali – 2023

• European Union vs Poland – As expected, the European Commission has launched infringement proceedings against Poland. Reason: the creation of a new Polish commission to investigate Russian influence in the country’s internal affairs, but which would have the power to bar individuals from public office and could be used to weaken the opposition in view of parliamentary elections in autumn 2023 Brussels considers that the commission on Russian influence violates four areas of European law relating to democracy, legal certainty, legal guarantees and data protection. The community body, led by Ursula von der Leyen, therefore gave the Polish government 21 days – significantly less than usual for infringement procedures – to respond to its concerns. The fact that the conflict between Polish and European institutions is taking place at the highest level is also shown by Warsaw’s decision to assert itself against the European rules blocking the production of petrol cars from 2035. Polish climate minister Anna Moskwa to address Europeans Court condemns ‘legally invalid’ decision. A certainly surprising move considering that Poland has itself delegitimized the European Court of Justice, even going so far as to no longer recognize its authority.
  Read more: Poland dreams of a world without Russia

• born – NATO has launched its largest air exercise in history. The German-coordinated “Air Defender 23” maneuvers will last until June 23 and will bring together around ten thousand soldiers and 250 military aircraft from 25 member or partner countries of the Atlantic Alliance, including Japan and candidate country Sweden. The exercise, also conceived in 2018 in response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, is not specifically aimed at “anyone”. German Air Force General Ingo Gerhartz made it clear: NATO is determined to defend “every inch” of its territory, but “flights will not be sent, for example, towards Kaliningrad” because “we are a defense alliance.” that this exercise is planned.’
  For more information: Kaliningrad encircled: The shadow of nuclear power looms over the northern front

• United States – Unesco – The United States privately notified the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) last week of its intention to rejoin the organization after the Donald Trump administration announced his resignation nearly six years ago. In December, the American Congress approved a bill that would provide more than 500 million dollars to repay the American debt to UNESCO. The news takes on geopolitical significance for two reasons. The first: Joe Biden’s intent to counter the Chinese government’s hold on the UN agenda. Then, in 2011, the State of Palestine joined UNESCO and became a full member: at the time, the Obama administration had stopped funding the organization, and after the United States officially left with Trump, Israel had announced that he would do the same . In February 2022, however, the Jewish state sent a letter to UNESCO stating it would not oppose a US return, paving the way for the Biden administration’s decision.
  Cartoon: Palestine is included in UNESCO

• Scotland – Former Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been released without charge after being arrested as part of an inquiry into funding for the Scottish National Party (SNP).

• nuclear power in the world According to SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), the nuclear arsenals of several countries, notably China, have increased over the past year, while other powers continued to modernize their facilities. The total number of warheads in the nine nuclear powers – Britain, China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, the US and Russia – fell from 12,710 at the beginning of 2022 to 12,512 at the beginning of 2023 found in “military stocks for potential use”: 9,576, up 86 from last year. Most of the increase comes from China, which increased its inventory of nuclear warheads from 350 to 410. India, Pakistan and North Korea also increased their holdings, as did Russia to a lesser extent (from 4,477 to 4,489), while the other nuclear powers maintained their holdings. For SIPRI director Dan Smith, given the long lead times for developing nuclear warheads, this increase in stockpiles cannot be explained by the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the countries affected by this growth are not directly affected by the conflict.
  Read more: The Nuclear Deterrence Crisis

• Russia – North Korea – North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has written a letter to the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin. Kim praises the “new turn” in the “Russian people’s struggle” taking place “under your right decision and leadership” to “eliminate the growing threats and challenges posed by hostile forces trying to encroach on the country’s sovereignty and security.” .” ” . “Justice will definitely prevail, and the Russian people will continue to glorify the history of victory,” added the North Korean dictator of Russia’s sovereign rights, development and interests and achieve international justice by challenging the intimidation and arbitrariness of the imperialists.” Kim then recalled that “the friendship between North Korea and Russia endures from generation to generation and is a precious resource for our countries is.” The Pyongyang chief then commented, “I assure you of my readiness to deepen strategic cooperation.”

Charter of Laura Canali – 2023