Analyze. Every day brings its share of horrors as Russia launched an unjustified war against Ukraine. Every day is also big, with events that were unthinkable until recently. The reaction of the West was united and dazzling: massive sanctions immediately triggered, the hunt for oligarchic assets, the supply of weapons to Ukrainians, taking into account the migration and humanitarian drama that was just beginning. But this response, laudable as it is, does not stop Russian missiles and attacks on civilians. It does not allow to restrain the dark plan of the Kremlin and its impetuous onslaught. Against. The Russian regime has long accepted – at its own risk – the idea that only superiority and a fait accompli guarantee a position of strength.
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We know what the West refuses to consider: a direct military confrontation with Russia. So no “no-fly zone” imposed by NATO to challenge the aggressor’s air superiority. But at present there is no way out of the crisis. It is dangerous to risk predictions. But it is important to consider the worst possible scenario among all scenarios. Even among Russian experts, few foresaw military operation throughout Ukraine. The lesson of this error, shared by the author of these lines, seems obvious: it cannot be repeated. The worst-case scenario—other than a nuclear escalation between Russia and NATO—is that Ukraine has become Syria, and Russia has become North Korea.
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Comparison between countries always has limits. Let’s start with Ukraine. In Syria, the ethnic and religious component, the role of the terrorist organization “Islamic State” are the features of this conflict. But now the similarities matter. Vladimir Putin completely underestimated the ability of Ukrainians to mobilize and patriotic resistance. It is logical, since he even denies the full existence of such a people, considering a provincial cousin a bastard, he must be corrected. The plan to overthrow the government in Kyiv is shattered by reality. The Kremlin has sowed hatred for Moscow in the hearts of Ukrainians. Even if President Volodymyr Zelensky is assassinated or sent into exile, any puppet planted in Kyiv will be treated as such. And Russia does not have the means to keep the entire country under military control in the long run.
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