It’s nearly the anniversary of that time the Jets flew a legendary Packers quarterback to Cleveland and crammed him into a small interview room at Browns Stadium before a preseason game to introduce him as their next quarterback.
“This is unique,” said Brett Favre that day, August 7, 2008.
This marriage worked until it didn’t anymore. The Jets started the 2008 season 8-3, Favre suffered an injury (but played through), lost four of their last five games and coach Eric Mangini was fired. The Packers were looking to trade Favre – the Jets only had to give up a conditional fourth-round pick for the 39-year-old – because of who they had in the starting blocks:
A 25-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
Fifteen years later, and here we are, a legendary 39-year-old Packers quarterback (Rodgers, four MVPs, one Super Bowl and 10 Pro Bowl picks later), potentially on the way out to make way for a young quarterback , waiting in the wings (Jordan Love)…with the Jets on line one.
Rodgers has said he hasn’t made a decision yet on whether he’ll even play in 2023 — or if he wants that at Green Bay — but with the Jets desperate for a quarterback upgrade, expect them to be involved in every trade are discussions whether the Packers are seriously considering moving him.
“All trade matters are conjectures until I decide for myself what I want to do going forward,” Rodgers said Tuesday on The Pat McAfee Show.
But if Rodgers continues and becomes available? Expect the Jets to initiate a heavy pursuit. How would that look?
Here’s everything you need to know about Rodgers and the Jets.
Would the Packers actually trade him?
The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman, who covers the Packers, wrote the following about Rodgers on Tuesday: It seems like the Packers still believe Rodgers is giving them the best chance of winning right now. Whether that’s more of a confirmation from Rodgers or an accusation against Love remains unknown. Whatever hell the Packers find themselves in, it will be worth it if they win a second Super Bowl with Rodgers.
However, Rodgers seemed primed for the possibility of playing for another team when speaking to McAfee on Tuesday.
“If they feel it was in the team’s best interest to move forward, then so be it,” he said. “Neither would that offend me and I wouldn’t feel like a victim. I would have no animosity towards the team. I love the organization, I love the city, I love the region. … I have a lot of love for what’s going on in Green Bay. And I’d like to end up there, I would. I could be done there. Who knows?”
Even at 39, after his worst season in some time, Rodgers would likely still see a significant trading return. Also, the Packers could squeeze enough of the remaining $110 million out of overtime he signed last offseason to have some financial wiggle room while he rolls with a quarterback (Love) who’s still on his rookie contract has.
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What would it take to get Rodgers?
Here are the returns on some notable quarterback trades recently:
• The Falcons traded Matt Ryan (37) to the Colts for a third-round pick.
• The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson (34) and a fourth-round pick to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round picks, a fifth-rounder and three players (QB Drew Lock, DL Shelby Harris, TE Noah Fant). .
• The Texans traded Deshaun Watson (27) and a sixth-round pick to the Browns for three first-round, one third-round and two fourth-round picks.
• The Colts traded Carson Wentz (30) and a second-round pick to the Commanders for a second-round pick and two third-round picks.
• In 2021, the Lions traded Matthew Stafford (then 33) to the Rams for two first-round picks, one third-round pick and QB Jared Goff.
Based on those criteria, it would be surprising if Rodgers traded for fewer than several first-round picks and likely more. However, any acquiring team would be wise to add strings to the deal should Rodgers retire after 2023.
Would the Jets be willing to trade that much? By all reports, owner Woody Johnson is willing to do anything to get a promotion at quarterback and get the Jets back into the playoffs. The idea of Rodgers in a Jets uniform – and what that would mean for ticket sales – must pique Johnson’s interest.
Impact on the salary cap
Rodgers has a complicated contract — Over the Cap has a helpful explanation for that — but the part that counts for the Jets is that any trade would likely happen after June 1 (to save Green Bay money) and that they probably would would inherit initial caps of $15.8 million in 2023 and $32.5 million in 2024.
OTC predicts the Jets have exceeded the cap, although they can get below that quickly by restructuring contracts (CJ Mosley, John Franklin-Myers) and/or cutting players for savings (Corey Davis, Carl Lawson, Braxton Berrios, Jordan Whitehead ).
How much does Rodgers actually have left in the tank?
Rodger’s skills are on the wane, which is understandable at this point in his career. He won MVP in 2020 and 2021, but threw for his fewest yards (3,695) in 2022 in every season he played at least 15 games. He also threw his most interceptions (12) since his freshman year as a starter in 2008.
In a Week 18 win-and-in game against the Lions, who had one of the worst passing defenses this season, Rodgers mustered just 205 yards and a touchdown. The Packers lost 20-16 to finish the season 8-9.
Football Outsiders ranked Rodgers 21st among QBs on the DVOA (defense-adjusted above average). He also ranked 25th in the EPA (expected points added) per dropback, according to TruMedia, just ahead of Jets quarterback Mike White (26th).
He also struggled with a broken thumb and injuries to his ribs and knees during the season.
Aaron Rodgers and Zach Wilson got to chat as the Jets and Packers held joint practices in 2021. (Matt Ludtke/Associated Press)
Why Rodgers makes sense for the Jets
The Jets feel like a quarterback — and a revamped offensive line — away from the competition. And Rodgers, even if he’s on the decline, would be better than any quarterback the Jets have employed in a long time. His star power is big enough to potentially lure other players into joining the Jets as well.
Rodgers also has a close relationship with Zach Wilson. Wilson, who’s sitting back and learning from Rodgers for a year or two – if the Jets don’t pull away from him this offseason wouldn’t be the worst.
Wilson is “super talented,” Rodgers told McAfee. “I think a little humility is good for all of us at different times in our careers. … I hope that whoever they choose to be their coordinator can work with them and break down a lot of the basics for them and get them to play on time. I think he’s talented enough to have a long career in the league.”
Would Rodgers actually want to join the Jets?
If Rodgers becomes available, the Jets intend to engage in those discussions. Rodgers doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but to some extent he’ll likely be able to dictate where he ends up.
“You want to be part of a team that’s going to win a championship,” Rodgers said Tuesday.
Does Rodgers see the Jets as a Super Bowl contender? There is certainly a certain appeal. The Jets have a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver (Garrett Wilson), one of the NFL’s best defenses, and an impressive young core of talent — with an owner willing to spend money to improve the roster.
But there are also plenty of cracks in the armor that Rodgers might notice if he looks closely.
The offensive line, which was a mess in late 2022, may need a complete overhaul. The only locks returning as starters are Laken Tomlinson and Alijah Vera-Tucker.
Rodgers singled out Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall when discussing Zach Wilson — but Hall will suffer an ACL injury in the fall and likely won’t look like the same player right away. The other expected wide receivers (Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims) just had a lackluster season. And on defense, the Jets have holes in linebackers and safety and may have to part ways with Lawson or Mosley for cap reasons.
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Also, the Jets are having trouble hiring an offensive coordinator to replace Mike LaFleur. Saleh has a long list of candidates he has spoken to or plans to do, but none appear to be a front-runner. There is a belief in the league that any team that hires Nathaniel Hackett would have a better chance of winning Rodgers because of their close relationship. The Jets interviewed Hackett for the job, and he has previously worked with Saleh, though it’s unclear if he intends to return to coaching so soon after his disastrous 15-game tenure as head coach of the Broncos. Hackett was previously the Packers’ offensive coordinator.
It also doesn’t help if the impression is made that Saleh and his staff could be fired if the Jets don’t make the playoffs in 2023.
The Jets’ best hope of getting Rodgers is to assemble an appealing offensive lineup, fix the offensive line, and nurture a roster that will give Rodgers reason to join the team for at least a year, but ideally more than a year engage.
It’s also possible the Jets will decide waiting out the Rodgers situation is too risky. They could instead go after Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, who they could take on once the Super Bowl ends.
Other competition for Rodgers
Another factor: The Jets probably wouldn’t be the only team with eyes for Rodgers. ESPN reported that the Packers would not be willing to trade him inside the NFC.
If true, these teams might make sense as candidates for Rodgers:
• Raiders: A reunion with wide receiver Davante Adams.
• Dolphins: The best supporting actors on this list.
• Patriots: No better overall roster than the Jets, but they have Bill Belichick, top-notch defense, and a better offensive line.
• Titans: Derrick Henry, good coaching and solid defense – albeit a severe lack of pass catchers.
• Colts: A team in disarray, but they have some pieces on offense and defense.
• Ravens: If they moved on from Lamar Jackson.
If the Packers acted within the NFC, the Giants, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, and 49ers all make varying degrees of sense as potential targets.
(Top Photo: John Fisher/Getty Images)