Hong Kong CNN —
A meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin via video conference is underway, with analysts watching for signs of the Chinese leader’s support for his Russian counterpart easing as the war in Ukraine drags on and China faces an unprecedented Covid outbreak is.
Ahead of Friday’s meeting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the two leaders would primarily discuss bilateral ties between their countries and exchange views on regional issues and their strategic partnership.
Moscow and Beijing have grown closer in recent years, with Xi and Putin declaring weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in February that the two countries have a borderless partnership.
Since then, China has refused to condemn the aggression, instead repeatedly blaming NATO and the United States for the conflict — and remains one of Russia’s key remaining supporters as it becomes increasingly isolated on the global stage.
But after more than 10 months of grueling war, the world looks very different – and the dynamic between both partners has shifted accordingly, experts say.
Instead of an expected quick victory, Putin’s invasion has stalled with numerous battlefield setbacks, including a lack of basic equipment. Morale in parts of Russia is low, and many civilians face economic hardship during the bitter winter.
On Thursday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials described as one of the largest rocket fires since the war began in February, with blasts rocking villages and towns across Ukraine, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least three people.
Ukrainian officials have been warning for days that Russia is preparing to launch an all-out attack on the power grid to end 2022, which will plunge the country into darkness while Ukrainians try to ring in the New Year and celebrate the Christmas holiday, which is what for the country’s Orthodox Christians it falls on January 7th.
“China is itching for (the war) to end,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at Washington-based think tank Stimson Center.
“Xi will try to stress the importance of peace to Putin,” she added. “As Russia grows impatient with the lack of progress on the battlefield, China sees the timing for peace talks as ripe.”
China, too, is becoming increasingly isolated in its attitude toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
Wu cited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as an example of a hardened stance on Russia’s war.
Although India has not directly condemned the invasion of Moscow, Modi told Putin in September that now is not the time for war and urged him to move towards peace.
This shift means China now remains alone in its ties with Russia, another reason Xi may be excited for a quick fix, Wu said.
Xi had already shown signs of impatience during his last meeting with Putin in September at a regional summit in Uzbekistan. At the time, Putin acknowledged that Beijing had “questions and concerns” about the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of their differing views.
But according to experts, China’s domestic political situation has also changed significantly in recent months, which could require a different approach to Putin this time.
The country is currently battling its worst-ever Covid outbreak, having finally abandoned its strict zero-Covid policy, with restrictions easing and borders partially reopening. The reversal came after an unprecedented wave of protests across the country against zero-Covid — in some cases augmented by broader grievances against Xi and the ruling Communist Party.
At the heart of this crisis is Xi – who entered a norm-breaking third term in October with a tight grip on power and a narrow circle of loyalists.
“Now that domestic problems are out of the way, Xi is in a better position to work on Russia,” the Stimson Center’s Sun said, referring to his power consolidation in October.
She added that despite the war’s unpopularity, China and Russia “are aligned for geopolitical reasons.” Both countries face tensions with the West, and the two leaders have often touted a shared vision for a new world order.
“The two heads of state will emphasize their partnership, cooperation and strong bond. They will want to send the message that all of these go beyond the war in Ukraine,” Sun said. “(The war) has been a nuisance for China over the past year and has affected China’s interest in Europe. But the damage is not great enough for China to abandon Russia.”
Wu also acknowledged that the relationship is “fundamental for both countries,” citing China’s ability to benefit from the war in Ukraine due to its access to Russian oil.
However, he added China’s protests, the outbreak of Covid and the resulting economic toll have put Xi in a more vulnerable position that could mean less material and outspoken support for Russia.
“The political tools that Xi Jinping can use to support Russia are quite limited now, it’s quite limited,” Wu said. “Politically, domestic support for Xi has declined dramatically. His third term doesn’t actually begin with a rosy picture.”