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According to Western and Chinese officials, Xi Jinping personally warned Vladimir Putin against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, implying that Beijing has concerns about Russia’s war, even as it offers tacit support to Moscow.
The personal message was delivered during the Chinese president’s state visit to Moscow in March, people added, one of Xi’s first trips outside of China after years of isolation under his zero-Covid policy.
Since then, Chinese officials have secretly managed to persuade the Russian president to back down from his veiled threats to use a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, the people said.
Preventing Putin from using such a weapon has been a key aspect of China’s campaign to restore damaged ties with Europe, a senior Chinese government adviser said. Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has put Moscow and its ally Beijing at odds with much of the continent.
In its public statements, China has consistently spoken out against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But many Kiev supporters question Beijing’s commitment to such a deterrent, given Xi’s “borderless” partnership with Putin and a “peace plan” that overlaps heavily with Russian talking points.
However, Xi’s warning gives them hope that China is backing up its public rhetoric behind closed doors – and potentially looming consequences for their relationship that would be enough to deter Putin from using a nuclear weapon.
“The Chinese appreciate sending the message at all levels,” said a senior US government official.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said in March that Xi’s visit “reduces the risk of nuclear war and they.” [the Chinese] made it very, very clear.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, a former government official confirmed that Xi had personally instructed Putin not to use nuclear weapons, noting that China’s stance against their use was included in his position paper on peace in Ukraine.
The Kremlin did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Putin was disappointed after Xi’s visit failed to bring tangible gains for Russia, such as approving the long-awaited Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, Western security officials said. The condemnation of the use of nuclear weapons in their joint communiqué was almost certainly added at the behest of China, the officials added.
If Russia were to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, “it will all be to China’s detriment,” an official said.
Russia’s invasion relies heavily on Chinese support, which has helped Moscow overcome economic sanctions that have locked it out of key global markets and supply chains.
Last year, China’s bilateral trade with Russia hit a record $190 billion as Beijing increased purchases of Russian energy and allowed the country to import key technologies, including microchips.
China refrained from criticizing Russia for the invasion and accused the West of fueling the conflict by supplying arms to Ukraine. Beijing has also made thinly veiled references to “harmful acts of hegemony, domination and intimidation” by the US through sanctions.
However, according to China’s top government adviser, the war threatens to derail China’s efforts to drive a wedge between Europe and the US.
A Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine or one of its European allies would risk turning the continent against China, the adviser said, while continued pressure from Beijing to prevent such an act could help improve ties with the continent.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that “Russia has never received and will never receive China’s approval to use nuclear weapons.” Should Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, “China will distance itself even more from Russia,” he added.
Xi’s warning suggests that China remains concerned about the war, despite Putin’s assurances last October that a tactical nuclear strike would not make “political or military sense.”
The statement came amid growing fears in the West that Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons, which are lower-yield warheads, in response to humiliating backlash in Ukraine.
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The US, Britain and France, NATO’s three nuclear powers, told the Kremlin they would attack its forces with conventional weapons if it used tactical nuclear weapons. In the wake of the warnings, Putin abandoned his rhetoric and did not publicly mention tactical nuclear weapons for several months.
People close to the Kremlin say the Russian leader independently decided that tactical nuclear weapons would not give Russia an advantage after projecting scenarios that would result from their use. A nuclear strike would likely turn areas Putin has claimed for Russia into a contaminated wasteland and provide little advance for his forces, the people said.
Kiev, meanwhile, has expressed concern that Russia could instead cause an accident at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant – the largest in Europe, which has been occupied by Russian forces since March 2022 – and denies responsibility.
Putin mentioned nuclear weapons again last month as Ukraine’s counteroffensive began, saying Russia had supplied tactical warheads to Belarus. However, Putin was quick to add that there was “no need” for that as Russian forces were slowing down Ukraine’s advance.
But the statement suggested that even China may not be able to completely deter Putin, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “Nuclear weapons are Putin’s ultimate insurance against catastrophic defeat in this war.”
Additional reporting by Joe Leahy and Nian Liu in Beijing