Can one believe Xi Jinping’s sincerity in telling European leaders that China supports a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis?
Chinese special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui is expected in Moscow today: Although the title of his post does not give it away, the diplomat’s job is to explore the possibility of starting talks between Moscow and Kiev. Li Hui was in Kiev, where he met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and then traveled to Warsaw, Berlin and Paris. The Ukrainian government reiterated to the Chinese envoy that compromises on national sovereignty were not possible (Kiev would therefore like to recover all of its invaded territory).
Li Hui’s first task right now is not to convince the Ukrainians, but to cement relations between China and those European governments that are more willing to continue “business as usual” without unhesitatingly following the US line . Therefore, Xi must keep the peace mediation hypothesis alive, including to cover for Frenchman Emmanuel Macron, who visited him in Beijing and took significant political risks.
The United States continues to spread skepticism, recalling that Xi never condemned the aggression (carried out by his close friend Vladimir Putin, whom he visited in the Kremlin in March). And then everyone knows that Beijing refuses to use the term “invasion”, condemns Western sanctions, flaunts its axis with Russia in an anti-Western capacity and takes advantage of the situation to strike excellent deals with the Russians. The latest evidence that Xi is not neutral and impartial was Russian Prime Minister Misutshin’s welcome to Beijing on Wednesday, who praised the “unprecedented level” of political and trade ties. Xi comforted him by saying that China and Russia must “firmly support each other in fundamental interests.”
However, it is equally clear that, precisely because of his proximity, Xi is the only one who can put Putin on the path to negotiations. And there are some positive signs: Li Hui was ambassador in Moscow for ten years (until 2019), knows the dynamics in the Kremlin well, speaks fluent Russian and is considered a reliable friend. The suspicious Putin probably doesn’t fear any tricks from the Chinese mediator.
The diplomatic shuttle is only in the first round: it is clear that results can only be expected after the actual or suspected offensives and counter-offensives have taken place on the field. But in the meantime, Li Hui’s task is to open a channel between Kiev and Moscow. As Xi signals China will not collapse Russia, the United States, Europe and Ukraine must seek a compromise to end the war.