For much of 2023, a storm has quietly enveloped the world's largest military China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Behind the government walls and military complexes of the Chinese capital, powerful generals have disappeared from public view one by one. Some were subsequently removed from their positions without explanation, even for positions as important as defense minister.
After months of intense public speculation and evasive responses from government spokespeople, the clearest sign of a sweeping purge within the Chinese military came at the end of the year when nine senior PLA soldiers were expelled from the country's highest legislative body.
Although the National People's Congress (CNP) is nothing more than a protocol parliament, its members enjoy a certain level of immunity from arrest and criminal acts guaranteed by the constitution. In the past, these sudden expulsions often served as a prelude to other disciplinary or legal action.
In keeping with the opacity surrounding Chinese elite politics, no reason was given for the generals' sudden exclusion from this body.
But experts who have long studied China's military point out that rooting out corruption is the likely cause possibly related to the acquisition and development of advanced equipment that has been a key element in leader Xi Jinping's efforts to curb the To “modernize” the People’s Liberation Army and transform it into a “worldclass” military force.
For some, the scale and depth of the recent purges are reminiscent of the corruption investigations in the early years of Xi's term that led to the downfall of several senior generals and their subordinates.
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has made rooting out corruption and disloyalty a hallmark of his administration, and recent shakeups suggest the campaign within the armed forces is far from over.
At the center of the latest purge is the PLA Rocket Force, an elite branch Xi created to monitor China's rapidly growing arsenal of nuclear and ballistic missiles.
The Chinese leader described the force as “the core of strategic deterrence, strategic support for the country's position as a great power and a cornerstone for building national security.”
“Right now it is obvious to Xi Jinping and the Chinese high command that the leadership of the Rocket Force has been compromised,” said James Char, a longtime PLA observer and researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“If this situation were to continue in the long term, it would definitely impact the overall combat capacity of the PLA,” he added.
Xi Jinping meets with military personnel during an inspection of the People's Liberation Army Southern Operational Command (Li Gang/Xinhua via AP) Caption
A hotbed of corruption
Of the nine PLA members expelled from the CNP, five are linked to the Rocket Force.
Most notable was General Li Yuchao, who, along with his political commissar, was abruptly replaced as commander in July. Also on the list are Li's predecessors and two former deputy commanders, as well as an official responsible for procuring the force's equipment.
Three other retired military personnel were also involved in the arms procurement two came from the PLA's Equipment Development Department, while the other oversaw the equipment of the PLA Navy's South Sea Fleet before becoming its commander.
The other fired general was a former PLA Air Force commander.
“Based on the affiliation of these nine officials (…), we can more or less assume that corruption is the main reason for the investigation into their illegal acts,” emphasizes Char.
The expulsion of the nine employees came just two days after three executives in the aerospace sector of China's militaryindustrial complex were removed from their positions on the country's top policy advisory body.
The action against the three executives, who were part of stateowned defense companies that make weapons and missiles, is seen by some analysts as another indication of an investigation into corruption in military procurement for the Rocket Force a highly secretive and lucrative area. with billions in subsidies that represent a breeding ground for corruption.
“The PLA Rocket Force has been equipped with much expensive equipment since 2016,” Char explains, pointing to the period when Xi carried out a major reform of the armed forces.
As part of this ambitious reform, the Rocket Force was transformed into a fullfledged military unit of the former Second Artillery Corps. Since then, it has undertaken an unprecedented expansion, adding powerful new intercontinental and mediumrange missiles to its arsenal and increasing the number of missile brigades from 29 to 40.
“It is clear that with this expansion of the PLA Rocket Force, the amount of equipment and investment that the PLA has invested in this service is immense,” points out Char.
In recent years, satellite photos have shown the construction of what appear to be hundreds of ICBM silos in Chinese deserts, and the U.S. Department of Defense predicts that China could have about 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues to expand its arsenal at the current exponential rate.
In September, CNN also revealed that China, along with Russia and the United States, have been building new facilities and digging new tunnels at their nuclear testing sites in recent years.
“Xi placed great emphasis on these developments, and this attention may have exposed the extent of corruption, leading to a cleanup that had the added benefit of undermining patronage networks that could affect Xi's plans and power,” says former Carl Schuster Director of Operations for the US Pacific Command Joint Information Center.
“Xi wants qualified people whose loyalty and judgment he trusts.”
Military vehicles carrying DF5B ICBMs pass through Tiananmen Square during a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, held in Beijing in 2019 (CNN)
Effects on combat
Schuster said the Rocket Force will play a key role in any conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea — two potential flashpoints between the U.S. and China — by leading early attacks on enemy forces and deterring U.S. intervention.
Given the force's strategic importance, a key question is whether the widespread purge will impact its operations or combat readiness.
So far, Xi has left operationallevel commanders and personnel intact, Schuster notes.
“Senior leaders were involved in setting up the force, but at this stage it is unlikely that they were involved in operations and planning,” he said.
While the largescale purge certainly affected the Rocket Force's morale and subjected it to tighter control, Char says that overall, “it is unlikely that the PLA's combat capabilities were affected in any way.”
As part of Xi's military reform, “the Rocket Force's resources have actually been increasingly integrated into the People's Liberation Army's joint command system. So this means that the People's Liberation Army's ability to carry out missile strikes as part of a broader joint campaign is limited.” “It is unlikely to be compromised,” he adds.
As geopolitical tensions rise, experts say it is critical for Xi in the long term to address decay within the People's Liberation Army, particularly in its weapons systems.
If the purges result in a more disciplined, effective and personally loyal fighting force, it could be a victory for Xi.
The Russian military's poor performance in the war with Ukraine from substandard equipment to outdated food packages to deadly tank weaknesses served as a lesson to Xi and his top generals about the dangers of corruption.
“Cleanup is important because in the future he wants to ensure that the PLA Rocket Force has lethal equipment that works on the battlefield,” explains Char.
Former Defense Minister Li Shangfu was removed from office in October 2023 after disappearing from public view for months (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)
The tip of the eisberg
Signs of problems related to arms procurement were already apparent in July.
Days before the Rocket Force's surprise leadership change, the Equipment Development Division ordered a new crackdown on corrupt procurement practices and asked the public to report evidence of questionable activity dating back to October 2017.
The investigation came at a time when the department was headed by Li Shangfu, the former defense minister who was removed from office in October after disappearing from public view for months without explanation.
One of Li's deputies in the equipment department, Zhang Yulin, was one of nine fired from parliament last week.
“After their CNP membership is revoked, their cases can move to the next phase, which is military prosecution,” Char said, adding that the purge is far from complete.
“I am sure there are more generals whose actions have been investigated. It seems to be just the tip of the iceberg.”
Some of the officials under investigation may not be old enough to hold seats in parliament, while others may already be retired.
At the top of the analysts' list is former defense minister Wei Fenghe, who has not been heard from since last March, when he retired and passed the statement on to Li Shangfu. Wei was the first commander of the Rocket Force when it was renewed in late 2015.
When asked about Wei's whereabouts in August, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman said the military had “zero tolerance for corruption” and promised to “investigate all cases and take action against all corrupt officials.”
Gen. Ju Qiansheng, commander of the PLA's Space and Cyber Warfare Strategic Support Force, has also not been seen since the summer.
Ju expressed suspicions after missing a reception celebrating the 96th anniversary of the PLA's founding in late July and a reward ceremony for Chinese astronauts in September.
More than a decade after Xi took office, China's most powerful and authoritarian leader in decades continues to battle corrupt and disloyal generals and officials some of whom he handpicked and promoted.
“I think he can fire anyone he wants. “But the simple fact that he continues to fire people says a lot about his poor judgment when it comes to these hirings,” Char says.
“Everything we’re seeing right now, all the purges, is actually due to China’s centralized oneparty system and the fact that the PLA is not subject to public scrutiny.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center for Studies in Washington, said the purges showed that despite Xi's tireless efforts, corruption cannot be completely eradicated from the system.
“Power tends to corrupt. Absolute power corrupts absolutely,” she said. “Xi is committed to fighting corruption, but corruption is a product of the system he defends. It is a trap.”