The fifth phone call in the past 18 months between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping lasted two hours and 17 minutes, according to the White House. There are many outstanding issues between the world’s two most powerful men: tensions over the invasion of Ukraine and Beijing’s support for Moscow, China’s aggressive stance in the Pacific region, and the economic Cold War between the two powers. An unexpected guest has joined the list in recent weeks: Nancy Pelosi. The intention of the Speaker of the House of Representatives to stop in Taiwan in August as part of a tour of Asia that she will take to take advantage of the Capitol recess has stirred Beijing and provoked movements in the shadow of Biden members of the government, concerned about their safety and health of bilateral relations to try to persuade a notoriously ungovernable politician not to travel. Biden himself has said the Pentagon doesn’t think it’s “a good idea.”
Nancy Pelosi, on Wednesday, during the unveiling of the statue of aviator Amelia Earhart at the Capitol DPA via Europa Press (DPA via Europa Press)
China’s state news agency Xinhua said at the end of the meeting that Xi was not beating around the bush and warned Biden that “playing with fire can get you burned,” referring to Taiwan. Xi stressed that “the international community expects China and the United States to play a leading role in safeguarding world peace and security,” Xi stressed that “the history regarding Taiwan is clear” as well as “both sides of the straits.” “. [que separa el continente de la isla] they belong to one China.” The leader of the Asian giant reiterated his country’s firm opposition to “separatism” and “interference by external forces,” and called for consistency between the words and actions of the US side.
At the moment, the White House has not shared details of the conversation. “Our idea is to keep lines of communication open with China, one of the most important bilateral relationships we have, not just in this region but around the world,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby. According to a senior US government official, who spoke anonymously, Biden joined the video call with the intention of discussing climate issues and economic competition in addition to easing tensions over Taiwan. He also planned to table the idea of a price cap on Russian oil to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. This opportunity was raised by Finance Secretary Janet Yellen to her Chinese counterparts earlier this month.
Biden administration ambiguity
So far, the Biden administration’s policy towards Taiwan has been characterized by ambiguity: yes, but no. If Beijing invades the island, the United States agrees to defend it. At the same time, it adheres to the “one China principle,” which governs the Asian giant’s diplomatic relations with other countries. The phrase implies just that: that there is only one China, and that includes Taiwan, where the nationalist troops, defeated by the communist army in the civil war, took refuge in 1949.
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Washington’s decades of cemented cautious position has been called into question several times by statements by Biden himself, who described the island as “independent” in November. And military exchanges and cooperation with Taipei, once kept secret, are now being made public. Amid such a tense panorama, Xi is preparing to be re-elected to a third term (five more years) at the end of the autumn, with no precedent since Mao Zedong. The general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, which is about to hold its 20th congress, surmises that the United States is about to ditch its amateurism towards Taiwan forever, so this is not the time to have the luxury of being weak to appear.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which has not yet been made official and comes after an attempt in April that prevented Covid, is known in English as “Catch 22,” a phrase borrowed from the vernacular by novelist Joseph Heller, who coined it has 22 in his masterful trap to define a situation with no way out. If the Democrat visits the island, bad. If not, worse.
China has promised not to hesitate when the time comes: “It will take vigorous action” when the speaker of the House of Representatives travels to the democratically self-governing island in August. The Chinese government’s deliberately chosen words in Mandarin, which usually leave nothing to chance, suggest that the Asian giant will react more forcefully than on other occasions.
The Foreign Ministry warned that the delegation’s visit would “seriously damage the basis on which the bilateral relationship rests” and “undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” language that raises the tone of the statements made were made when other low-level US lawmakers visited Taiwan. For its part, the Ministry of Defense has warned that “the army will not stand by and take action in this matter to thwart any outside interference or attempts at secession”.
Pelosi’s visit is particularly irritating to China because she is second in line to the presidential line after Vice President Kamala Harris. What’s more, she would be the senior US lawmaker to set foot on the island since Newt Gingrich’s visit in 1997 (then the Asian giant decided to bite back its anger while welcoming back Hong Kong). A lot has changed in those 25 years: Beijing is richer, more heavily armed, and less patient with Taiwan, which it believes has no right to maintain foreign relations. During the last phone call between the two leaders last March, Xi Biden already warned that “if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it would be a turning point for bilateral relations.” Beijing believes that any trip to Taipei by a senior US official jeopardizes this geopolitical convention, as it will be interpreted as a sign of support for its independence.
The other difference is that Gingrich, then a Republican Speaker of the House, traveled under Democrat Bill Clinton and one of his favorite pastimes was harassing his opponent Clinton, while Pelosi is a Democrat like Biden. In other words, anger is mounting again at home for the American leader. Troubled by runaway inflation from high gas prices and the economy, Biden has been in a tech recession since Thursday, breaking negative records of acceptance by the American people (his ratings are stuck at a very unflattering 30%) and a majority of his constituents would, according to one current poll prefer someone else, anyone else, to be featured in the 2024 election. If the nomination comes to the polls, he will soon be 83 years old.
According to some analysts, Beijing’s more frontal language does not imply triggering a security crisis in the Strait of Formosa at this time. From the think tank Eurasia Group, they believe Xi will probably approach things in a similar way as before: with an increase in military exercises near Taiwan and with more forays into Taiwan’s airspace by his fighters and bombers to defend Taiwan’s island. They add that China could also respond with sanctions against Pelosi and even with People’s Liberation Army units flying near their plane.
For Taiwan, Pelosi’s visit is hugely valuable as it would mean garnering the support of a senior political figure just weeks after she lost another of her big supporters on the international stage: former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe. assassinated at a rally and author of the phrase “A contingency in Taiwan is a contingency in Japan”. Abe has always associated peace on the island with stability in the region.
Kim Jong-un accuses Washington and Seoul of bringing the Korean Peninsula to the ‘brink of war’
Kim Jong-un has accused the US and South Korea of pushing the Korean Peninsula to the “brink of war” as the two countries prepare for their first major joint military exercises since 2018. North Koreans used an event held on Wednesday to commemorate the end of the Korean War in 1953, a conflict that split the country in two, to threaten to use nuclear weapons to “annihilate” South Korean forces , if that would be necessary. His words, collected by state media in the service of the communist dictatorship, surfaced this Thursday.
“We are fully prepared to respond to any crisis, and our country’s nuclear war deterrent is also ready to obediently, accurately and quickly mobilize its absolute power according to its mission,” Kim said. “It is a suicidal act.” Absurd and extremely dangerous to talk about military action against our country; we already have the most powerful and fearsome weapon,” he added.
The joint Washington-Seoul military drills that have angered Kim are scheduled for late August or early September and are the first large-scale drills since 2018, when Donald Trump was in the White House staging an unprecedented rapprochement with Pyongyang.
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