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Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, it looks like Xi Jinping’s bet on a “boundless” friendship with Vladimir Putin could backfire. This weekend’s brief uprising against Moscow has again highlighted the risks facing the Chinese leader.
China expressed its confidence in Putin on Sunday, citing the Russian President’s close relationship with Xi. At the same time, it said it was necessary to “uphold the common interests of both sides” amid a “complex and serious international situation.” When asked directly about Putin’s deal with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Chinese foreign ministry said it supports Russia’s efforts to maintain “national stability” while dealing with an “internal matter”.
But despite the support shown, the powerful challenge to Putin’s authority immediately raised questions about the long-term implications for Xi – from his ideological struggle with the US to his own rise to power, which was questioned last year amid rare nationwide protests against Covid restrictions .
“This messy conclusion can only be seen as a loss for Beijing,” said Raffaello Pantucci, senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. “It underscores the fragility of its most important partner on the world stage, it underscores the weakness of a man President Xi wanted to show his closeness to, and if it leads to the end of the war, it will unleash some Western assets.” to concentrate.”
While Xi has consolidated his power over the past year, securing an unprecedented third term and no immediate threat to his rule, his post-war diplomatic support for Putin has inextricably linked the two men. Both head authoritarian governments that possess nuclear weapons and oppose the democratic values of the US and its allies.
The story goes on
Even the prospect of Putin being ousted from power – a scenario that seemed plausible before Prigozhin suddenly turned his troops away from Moscow – risks spreading to the Beijing establishment. Over the weekend, a Weibo account run by the People’s Liberation Army published a post about how Mao Zedong redesigned the military in 1927 to ensure the Communist Party maintained absolute control and pointed to the risk of Putin showing himself off private armies like Prigozhin’s.
Although Xi has sought to consolidate his hold over Chinese forces, it is uncertain whether he has full leadership. When US President Joe Biden last week called Xi a dictator, he claimed Xi was embarrassed because he was unaware that an alleged spy balloon was flying over the US in February – an incident that severely soured ties between the world’s largest economies made the world shake.
“What happened in Russia reinforces the message that Xi Jinping must continue to maintain a very, very firm grip and remain suspicious of the military,” said Tai Ming Cheung, director of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation author of the Book Fortifying China: The Struggle to Build a Modern Defense Economy.
“It’s very early days, but I’m sure that when the Chinese military press arrives, you will see an opportunity to renew the military’s loyalty to both the Communist Party and Xi Jinping in particular,” he added added .
As international sanctions on Russia make Xi’s relationship with Putin increasingly asymmetric, China could further expand its economic advantage. Beijing has already increased the use of the yuan in trade with Russia, demonstrating its usefulness as an alternative to dollar dominance.
China has also been buying up over $95 billion worth of Russian energy since the invasion, creating a key source of funding for Putin’s war machine. But over-reliance on Russia for energy also poses risks: analysts at RBC Capital Markets LLC, including Helima Croft, said in a Sunday note that the threat of unrest in Russia must now be factored into oil analysis for the second half of the year.
While the economic cost of Putin’s invasion highlights the difficulties of managing a war, it won’t necessarily deter Xi from pursuing his own military objectives in Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own, according to Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor at the Political Science from the National University of Singapore.
At the same time, it’s a reminder of what can go wrong when a war starts, said Wen-Ti Sung, a lecturer at Australia National University. He quoted a saying by Sun Tzu, author of The Art of War, that generals on the battlefield are not always bound by the ruler’s orders.
“Wars always carry the risk of jeopardizing civilian control over the military,” Sung said. “That’s why Beijing will become more and more cautious about initiating a Taiwan conflict.”
China has slowly begun to distance itself from Russia over the months, warning against the use of nuclear weapons and calling for the protection of civilians following the destruction of a dam in Ukraine. Xi also sent an envoy to Ukraine to help end the conflict, though few countries see China as a neutral mediator.
For now, China’s strategy appears to be to publicly support Putin’s ability to rule without tying Xi too closely to the Russian leader until the full ramifications of the weekend become clear. While China’s statements mentioned Putin by name, unlike Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Xi still has not had a public conversation with the Russian leader.
“There is little doubt that Beijing would carefully consider the effectiveness of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the pitfalls that have been encountered so far,” said Elena Collinson, senior project and research officer at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney. “Russia’s strategic value as a partner with China would decrease significantly with a failed invasion of Ukraine or the overthrow of Putin.”
– With support from Yihui Xie, Swati Pandey and Philip Glamann.
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