For the second time before his 26th birthday Juan Soto is in motion. The Yankees and Padres announced a trade, sending Soto and his fellow outfielder Trent Grisham from San Diego to the Bronx. The Friars will receive five players – right-handers Michael KingTop pitching prospect Drew ThorpeRight-handed Jhony Brito And Randy Vasquezand catcher Kyle Higashioka – in return.
Soto’s time in San Diego ends after a season and a half. The Padres acquired the star slugger from the Nationals in the summer of 2022 in one of the biggest deadline blockbusters in history. He then appeared in 214 games for the Friars, hitting .265/.405/.488. It wasn’t necessarily Soto’s smoothest tenure, as he fell short of his established high standards in 1922 and early last season. In May he had turned things around and was back at top level.
The three-time All-Star ultimately posted a .275/.410/.519 line with 35 home runs in all 162 games. Despite the generally pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park, he fell just short of a career mark in longball. Soto’s generational record discipline remained on full display. The only new teammate among hitters with more than 400 plate appearances Aaron Richter I ran more often. Soto was just behind the respective league’s MVPs, Ronald Acuna Jr. And Shohei Ohtani, in on-base percentage. He was one of four batters to walk more often than he struck out.
That’s what we expect from Soto, who now owns a .284/.421/.524 slash line over five and a half MLB seasons. He’s on a path to the Hall of Fame and will immediately slot into the middle of New York’s batting order. He and Judge now form the game’s most fearsome corner-outfield tandem. Along with Grisham and Alex Verdugo – acquired from the Red Sox last night – they are part of an almost completely renovated outfield in the Bronx.
The trade is a clear win-now move for the Yankees, the kind of headline-grabbing move reminiscent of the Bronx Bombers of old. It’s a bold push from the owners and front office after a fourth-place finish in the AL East.
In all likelihood, Soto is a one-year acquisition. He is in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to make a salary of $33 million, which would break the all-time record for an eligible player. While the Yankees will likely inquire with Soto’s representatives at Boras Corporation about a possible long-term extension, it is widely believed that he will only be a one-year rental. The three-time All-Star rejected a $440 million offer from the Nationals before moving to San Diego. The price would certainly only be higher now that Soto is a season and a half closer to the open market.
The chance to talk extension numbers with Soto’s camp isn’t entirely worthless, but it’s far less important than ensuring he becomes a Yankee in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone said this morning that the Yankees were comfortable playing Judge in center field if necessary. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic believes that despite the position’s increased injury risk, the team’s “most used outfield” would actually have Judge at center, with Soto on the right side and Verdugo on the left.
Given Giancarlo Stanton’s injury history, the Yankees should also be able to rotate their stars in the DH mix and use glove-first Grisham in center. Top prospect in midfield Jason Dominguez could step in sometime later in the year following rehab from Tommy John surgery while the young outfielder remained at left Everson Pereira will likely return to Triple-A.
Grisham, who recently turned 27, played four seasons in San Diego. The Padres acquired him from the Brewers in a four-player trade after the 2019 season. Grisham had an excellent performance in the shortened 2020 season, but has seen a downward trend on offense in recent years. He was still a slightly better than average hitter in 1921 before falling below that in the final two seasons.
The left-hander has posted batting averages below the Mendoza Line in each of those seasons. Still, the Padres stuck with him as their primary center fielder. Grisham was patient enough to draw a fair amount of walks and hit double-digit home runs in all four years in San Diego. His .191/.300/.347 line since the start of 2022 remains atrocious, but the walks and serviceable power have been enough to make him a starter at the back of the lineup.
Grisham is a plus midfield defender and receives high marks for Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average from Statcast every year. DRS rated him 25 runs above average in his nearly 4,100 career innings; Statcast has Grisham 30 runs better than par. The glove was enough for the Padres to offer him an arbitration contract worth around $4.9 million. Grisham will go through this process again before becoming eligible for free agency after the 2025 season.
Between Verdugo, Soto and Grisham, the New York front office added a trio of left-handed hitters in just over 24 hours. At the start of the offseason, general manager Brian Cashman made it a priority to sign two left wing outfielders. In the majors, there may be no one better than Soto.
This comes at the expense of a good portion of their upper-level pitching depth and a significant amount of money. The Padres entered the offseason making it clear that they needed to cut back on spending. The Friars had become a surprising giant in recent years. Late owner Peter Seidler made repeated signings that pushed the Friars into the realm of top-spending players. AJ Preller, president of baseball operations, has never shied away from pursuing star talent.
This was obviously not entirely sustainable in the long term. With reports of the need to reduce payroll toward the $200 million limit to meet MLB’s debt service ratio, speculation about a Soto transfer has been rampant throughout the winter. He was expected to receive the highest salary of anyone in the squad in 2024. But the short-term commitment made it easier to move Soto for a meaningful return than cash from a long-term deal (e.g Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr.).
With no intention of rebuilding, the Padres had to find a way to bring rotation help into the mix. San Diego had arguably the best starting pitching in the sport last season. With each of Blake Snell, Nick Martínez, Seth Lugo And Michael Wacha By the time they hit free agency, they were essentially finished Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and a variety of untested options with limited salary flexibility.
The Yankees complied with the order and sent a handful of upper arms. The package is led by King, a 28-year-old right-back who started as a starter at the end of last season. The Boston College product had been an effective multi-inning reliever for the majority of his time in the Bronx. With the Yankees struggling with rotation issues late in the year, they gave King a chance as a starter. They didn’t expect it to go so well.
In his nine starts, King posted a 2.23 ERA over 40 1/3 innings. He held opponents to a .243/.284/.355 line while striking out an outstanding 31.3% of batters. The Yankees gradually increased his workload, holding him to five or fewer innings in all but two of those appearances. King was successful in both games he played through the sixth, both against the Blue Jays, highlighted by a 13-strikeout performance on September 20.
There’s certainly risk in betting on King sticking around as a starter. This year’s 104 2/3 innings is a personal high at the MLB level, plus King was on the 60-day IL in 2021 and ’22 due to a finger injury and an elbow fracture, respectively. However, the Padres made a gamble last offseason that Lugo could convert out of the bullpen. King maintained his average fastball velocity at 94-95 MPH and mixed four pitches. He has dominated hitters on both sides of the plate and owns a 2.60 overall ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 155 2/3 frames since the start of 2022. It’s a gamble, but there is also significant potential.
The Padres control King via arbitration for two seasons. His earnings were limited by his career resume as a non-closing reliever. Swartz expects to make just $2.6 million in salary in 2024. Even if he performs well as a starter over a full season, he would likely be in the $8-10 million range in 2025.
Brito and Vásquez held deep roles in the rotation as rookies in 2023. The former is a 25-year-old righty who pitched 90 1/3 innings in 25 outings (13 starts). Brito posted a 4.28 ERA overall, but fared significantly better out of the bullpen. He posted a 1.43 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate in relief, compared to a 6.32 mark with a 16.4% strikeout percentage from the rotation. That could point to a future filled with relief, even if prospect evaluators generally projected Brito as a possible back-end starter.
The 25-year-old Vásquez posted a 2.87 ERA in his first 37 2/3 MLB frames. His strikeout and walk numbers were more mediocre. Vásquez also had difficulty throwing strikes in Triple-A, although he struck out nearly 27% of batters in 17 starts at the top minor league level. His fastball dates to the mid-90s and he has mixed six pitches (four-seam, sinker, cutter, sweeper, changeup and curveball) in his limited big league time.
Both hurlers have two minor league options remaining. Neither has yet achieved a full year of service. San Diego can control them for at least six seasons. They’re each reasonably valuable trade pieces, but Thorpe is the real second piece to King.
A second-round pick in 2022, the 1.85 meter tall right-hander showed excellent performance in his first full professional season. Thorpe posted a 2.52 ERA in 139 1/3 innings between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. He struck out more than a third of the batters he faced, compared to a modest walk rate of 7.1%. Baseball America recently ranked him seventh among Yankee prospects.
According to BA, he has an extensive arsenal that features a plus changeup and good life on a 92-94 MPH fastball. He also has more control and projects as a back-end or better as a starter. He’ll likely start the season in Double-A, but as an advanced college draftee, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’ll be on the mound at Petco Park sometime next summer. Preller suggested this in an after-hours press conference this evening.
Rounding out the return is Higashioka, an experienced catcher, supporting the 25-year-old Luis Campusano. Higashioka had spent a decade and a half in the Yankee organization since his selection in the 2008 draft. He has established himself as a respected number 2 behind the court. Higashioka ranks last in on-base percentage but has hit double-digit home runs in three straight seasons. He has posted excellent pitch-framing grades throughout his career, although Statcast data suggests his typically solid blocking skills have declined sharply this year.
Swartz expects the 33-year-old to receive a salary of $2.3 million in his final season before free agency. Since no cash payments are involved in the exchange, the financial elements of the trade are limited to the players’ respective arbitration salaries. King and Higahioka are expected to earn a total of $4.9 million; Soto and Grisham will combine for something in the region of $37.9 million.
For the Padres, this represents a savings of around $33 million. Roster Resource predicts the brothers will actually spend about $156 million. They amount to approximately $209 million in luxury tax liabilities, approximately $28 million below the base threshold. There is room for the front office to move into the middle echelons of free agency. They’ll probably still look for some reliability in the back of the starting lineup, a backup player in the back end and at least one outfielder. Tatis could theoretically slide from right to midfield, although they are widely expected to pursue the KBO midfielder Young Hoo Lee. Furthermore, bruisers explained his intention Tonight I’ll try to add more starting pitching.
The cost to the Yankees goes well beyond the $33 million difference in the arbitration projections. The Yankees were already in luxury tax territory. Roster Resource now projects their CBT mark to be at $290 million, well into the third penalty tier. The Yankees have paid the tax in each of the last two years, meaning they will face significantly higher penalties as repeat payers.
New York pays a 50% tax on spending between $237 million and $257 million, 62% on the next $20 million and 95% on spending between $277 million and $297 million. They would be taxed at a rate of 110% on every dollar over $297 million. The Yankees clearly still need to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a reliever, and it’s worth keeping in mind that the cost of those additions would roughly double in 2024 because of the luxury tax — barring payroll deductions elsewhere.
Overall, today’s trading increases expected tax liabilities by approximately $24.75 million. It’s a nearly $58 million investment, mostly made up of one season for Soto and two years for Grisham. The Yankees could regain a draft choice if Soto hits free agency next year after turning down a qualifying offer, although that wouldn’t fall until after the fourth round due to New York’s CBT status.
Given the huge financial costs and the remarkable pitching talent, it’s a huge investment. That’s a testament to both Soto’s talent and the Yankees’ holistic approach to turning things around. It will likely be the biggest trade of the offseason, and unlike some other blockbusters, it’s between two clubs that fully expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. For both franchises, it’s just beginning.
Jack Curry from YES Network reported this morning that a Soto trade was likely. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported that the Padres would host King, Thorpe and at least two others. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Grisham’s admission. curry had the probable inclusions of Vásquez, Higashioka and Brito. Sherman initially reported that the deal had been agreed.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.