NASHVILLE, Tenn. – Stalemate. Dead end. Stand still. Whatever you want to call the awkward space that the trade talks between the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are taking up for superstar left fielder Juan Soto, just call them incomplete. While the teams appear to have cooled their once-heated discussions, they will pick up steam again as winter meetings begin Monday, according to a league source who spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely.
Whether on the phone, in a plush suite or in an overpriced restaurant or bar at the labyrinthine Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and his Padres counterpart AJ Preller will be talking about Soto again . The 25-year-old left-hander, who could end up being the best player, has been traded all season.
Let’s take a look at the current state of affairs:
The trade
The Yankees want Soto, who hit 35 homers last season and led the National League with 132 walks while playing in all 162 games. His .275 batting average, 32 doubles and 109 RBIs also led to a wRC+ of 155 – a mark 55 percent above league average. Since 2018, his debut season, Soto has a 28.4 fWAR, eighth in the MLB. He is one of the best hitters in the game and perhaps the best left-handed hitter ever, and Cashman has said his goal is to acquire a southpaw left fielder. Soto isn’t a good defender or baserunner, but his bat is worth it. Plus, Soto will be a free agent next season, and there’s virtually no chance he’ll sign a contract extension without testing free agency. Soto and his agent Scott Boras rejected a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals in 2022.
The Padres, the source said, are targeting young starters who are either MLB-ready or close to it. The names they suggested were Clarke Schmidt and Michael King, right-handers who are expected to be in the Yankees’ starting lineup next season. They also nominated swingmen Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as top prospect Drew Thorpe, who Baseball America ranked No. 96 overall on the top 100 prospect list at the end of last season. Other top Yankees prospects, including Everson Pereira, a hard-hitting outfielder, and Oswald Peraza, a skilled shortstop, are likely on the table. The Yankees are particularly reluctant to deal King or Thorpe, the source said.
The Padres also decided to add center fielder Trent Grisham to the mix, the source said.
The hanging up
The Yankees thought the Padres’ request — versions of an 8-for-2 trade — was too high, the source said. The Padres appear to be in salary-cutting mode, and the team that acquires Soto would pay all of the projected $33 million he is scheduled to make next season via salary arbitration. The departure of the 27-year-old Grisham would likely increase the pot by another $4.9 million. The Yankees appear to be one of the few teams that could provide the Padres with financial relief and top-notch starting pitching.
But the Padres also know that the Yankees have been brutally pressured by their fan base to improve on their disappointing 2023 season, in which they went 82-80 and missed the playoffs. Adding Soto could go a long way in taking the heat off the Yankees. Watching Soto get traded elsewhere could ratchet the fear up a few notches.
The external factors
There are a few.
It might be up to the Padres to let superstar free agent Shohei Ohtani decide on his next home before trading Soto. The teams that lose out on Ohtani could either redouble their efforts to sign Soto or start considering the Dominican-Republican native as a consolation prize. For example: The Toronto Blue Jays have spoken to the Padres about Soto and are also believed to be a serious contender for Ohtani. The Padres could have the Blue Jays play the Yankees — and vice versa — to try to get the Soto deal of their dreams.
San Diego’s biggest need is starting pitching, with Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, and Michael Wacha as free agents. The longer the Padres wait, the more free agent pitchers could come off the board, leaving them with fewer options.
For the Yankees who need outfield support and left-handed hitting, there are other options. Nobody is as attractive as Soto. The team is interested in free-agent center fielder Cody Bellinger, the source said, but so far his price has been set prohibitively high. The Yankees could also look at Kevin Kiermaier or Jung-Hoo Lee. It’s unclear how the Yankees’ pursuit of Soto might impact their pursuit of Japanese star starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, also a free agent.
The reality
It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Padres will trade Soto. If the Yankees and San Diego have gotten this far in negotiations, it’s clear that both sides are seeing a hypothetical game. It’s far from unusual for such conversations to begin with both sides asking about the moon and stars before returning to Earth – or, more specifically, the Honky Tonk Highway.
(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)