Houthi rebels based in Yemen launched another attack on merchant ships transiting the Red Sea on Thursday, sending an explosive, unmanned vessel near a U.S. Navy ship – just a day after warnings from a U.S.-led coalition called Operation Prosperity Guardian, which was intended to protect the Red Sea area.
The attacks, which have been ongoing for weeks, threaten to significantly disrupt the flow of trade goods through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, an important trade route between Asia and Western countries. It's an approach that, at relatively little cost to the Houthis and their Iranian sponsors, has exposed the ineffectiveness of the U.S. coalition's response – and has heightened tensions in the region following Hamas attacks in Israel on multiple fronts increased on October 7th.
In a statement on Wednesday, the US and its 12 coalition partners issued a final warning to the Houthis that they would “bear responsibility for the consequences” if they continued to launch attacks on container ships on the sea route. In response to this vague warning, the group detonated an explosive unmanned surface vessel (USV) near several merchant ships and a U.S. Navy ship, although none of the ships were damaged. And on Saturday, a U.S. warship shot down a drone that was launched from Houthi-controlled territory “in international waters of the southern Red Sea near several commercial vessels.” according to a statement from U.S. Central Command.
With the Houthis committed to antagonizing merchant ships, the question of a possible response remains open – and the coalition does not have many clear options that could effectively stop the attacks without risking open conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, the Houthis, with Iranian support, have shown that their actions are effective even against the world's largest naval power.
The Houthis are hitting the West where it hurts
The Houthis have said they are targeting ships that are in some way linked to Israel in response to that country's attacks on Gaza and Hamas, the militant group that controls the Palestinian enclave. Israel's attacks have killed nearly 23,000 Palestinians and are making the region “uninhabitable,” according to United Nations humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths.
The Houthis have carried out around two dozen attacks on commercial vessels in the region since Nov. 18, NAVCENT commander Vice Admiral Brad Cooper told reporters on Thursday, including firing ballistic missiles, drones and now a USV. The US announced Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18, naming Canada, Spain, the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Seychelles, France, the Netherlands, Italy and Norway as partners in the effort.
As Craig Fuller, the CEO of FreightWaves, said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast this week: “The United States has the largest navy in the world, it is also one of the few blue water navies – it can go anywhere, any place.” “To defend the planet.” and “the entire purpose is to protect freight routes.” One of the main demands of the US Navy is its role to protect commerce and ensure global trade.”
Cooper told the press that “approximately 1,500 merchant vessels have safely transited the waters of the Red Sea since the operation began.” But as Bloomberg reported in late December, shortly after the coalition was announced, shipping traffic in the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea fell by 40 percent. Both this waterway and the Suez Canal are vital to international trade – not just the oil and energy products that come from the Middle East, but also the container ships that carry consumer goods and the machinery and parts necessary for manufacturing, which impacts supply chains at several different levels.
And even if some cargo ships sail safely, the increased insurance costs or risks may be too high for some companies to bear. Furthermore, despite US warnings, the attacks have not stopped. “The course of the conflict and the escalation of Houthi attacks, even as the U.S. tried to respond, make it clear that what the U.S. is doing is in no way truly a deterrent,” said Jennifer Kavanagh. said Vox, senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The attacks are forcing shipping companies to change their transit routes. Industry leader Maersk said it would withdraw its ships from the Red Sea route “for the foreseeable future” in favor of a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope after Houthi fighters attacked a route of its ships on January 1. According to Portal, Maersk controls about a sixth of global container shipping and the alternative route cuts shipping times by up to three weeks.
Not only does it take longer for products to reach their destination, but the extra time also results in additional costs for shipping companies – for example for fuel, salaries and insurance – shipping company Hapag-Lloyd told Portal on Friday. Companies then pass these increases on to consumers.
“I think the clear lesson from what's happening in the Red Sea is that it doesn't take too much to disrupt shipping,” Kavanagh said. “And to such gray zone attacks” or attacks on commercial vessels by non-state actors such as the Houthis “it is very difficult for the United States to respond in a measured manner while balancing risks of escalation.”
The US has few good options
The US told the Houthis on Wednesday that they would not face another warning if they continued their attacks in the region; Now that this warning has been ignored, the coalition's response plan must be to deter attacks without escalating the entire regional conflict. However, it is not clear whether the coalition can actually cope with this task.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that the U.S. is exploring options to attack Houthi targets, which could include striking missile and drone launchers, radar sites on the Yemeni coast and Houthi munitions facilities.
The use of force against the Houthis is fraught with complications, not least because many of their weapons systems are mobile. But as Kavanagh said, the U.S. can only go so far in retaliation. “They can shoot down drones and missiles, which is inefficient and very costly for the US.” or, as they have already done, attempt to attack ammunition or munitions depots. But beyond that, what’s the next step you take that doesn’t lead to direct attacks on Iran?”
Meanwhile, the Houthis may continue to frustrate the global shipping industry, “mainly through increases.” [the] Volume of attacks,” Daniel Byman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Vox.
Crucially, the Houthi attacks were not aimed at oil tankers or other energy assets, as Fuller pointed out – to protect one of the region's most important raw materials, to avoid regional players such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar hoping for it to anger stop a wider regional escalation.
“Most countries in the region have decided against it [of the US-led coalition]”Because they're worried about Iran, and … they don't want to be seen as protectors of Israel because the Houthis have said Israel is their target,” Kavanagh said. “So there was a very big reaction from the coalition [that] was at the same time very ineffective – the goals of this coalition were also very unclear. Therefore, they have very low participation, very limited skills and no clear goals.”
Even if the coalition somehow manages to reduce the number of Houthi attacks while avoiding direct conflict with Iran, other regional fronts continue to escalate; In Lebanon, for example, a senior Hamas leader was killed on Tuesday, apparently by Israel. The war has also led to renewed attacks by Iranian-backed groups on U.S. posts in Iraq and Syria, and the Iraqi government is preparing to withdraw U.S. coalition troops from the country.
“People are looking at an escalation in the region as if a switch has been flipped – and I think it’s important to recognize that the alternative is also possible,” Kavanagh said. “You actually see it already happening, which is just a steady increase in violence, and the strikes, which are just about the same thing, gradually increase, and all of a sudden you're there [an] unbearable level.”
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