Europe should not reflexively reject Emmanuel Macron's proposal for Western ground troops in Ukraine.
Imagine there is a war and no one leaves.” This quote from poet Bertolt Brecht has been a popular slogan of green-left pacifists for decades. People remember this quote today. At least if we listen to the reactions to Macron's suggestion that the West may (have to) use ground troops in the conflict over Ukraine. From Olaf Scholz to representatives of small NATO and/or EU member states, people trumpet: “Ground troops – only over our dead bodies”. The relevant statements in “Presse” also sound in the same tone – with the exception of “Querwriting” by Christian Ortner (March 1, 2023).
In the same issue, Albrecht Rothacher drew five scenarios, none of which were realistic (from hopeful to unfortunately). Of course he left out one scenario, perhaps because he did not want to violate the “good tone” of the politicians and commentators who called for “prudence” against Macron, all of whom I refer to here as “peace fantasists”.
It is almost impossible that Putin would be willing to negotiate with Ukraine. Maybe about Ukraine, for example. B. with Trump (God forbid!), who grants him supremacy over (only half?) of Europe because he has no idea about the European map anyway. And what could Putin offer Trump that he doesn't already have? Nothing more than empty promises; Putin cannot make the People's Republic of China a pawn in a geopolitical chess game, nor can Iran or the Arab States.
If we ignore such an agreement between Putin's Russia and Trump's USA, Putin can only be brought to the negotiating table with the prospect of achieving all the objectives of his “military operation”. This would mean a territorial amputation of Ukraine and the installation of a government subservient to Russia. Such a scenario would presuppose that military support for Ukraine from the West does not reach the necessary level, with the prospect of a prolonged stalemate with no chance of recapturing Ukrainian territories already conquered (some of which have already been annexed) by Russia increasing war fatigue. leads to a desire by NATO states and their governments to “sacrifice” Ukraine “so that there can finally be peace”.
Putin will not give up
Assuming this would obviously be gross self-deception. Putin will not rest until he is put militarily in his place. Further “military actions” would follow, perhaps first against Moldova, then immediately against the Baltic States, and possibly also against Finland. Then NATO would have to fulfill its obligation to provide assistance or step down as a defense alliance. After that, Putin would arrive in Poland. There's no need to speculate about which dominoes will fall next.
What pacifists rarely or never quote is the continuation of Brecht's quote: “Then war will come to you.” This means today that Europe must be defended in Ukraine, using all necessary means. Whether this includes ground troops depends only on circumstances and not on the will of politicians. If Scholz today refuses to deliver Taurus missiles on the grounds that the risk of Germany becoming a party to the war is too great, he is wrong. Tomorrow this risk will be even greater due to his refusal.
Heribert Franz Köck He is a university professor emeritus focusing on international and European law.
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