“Nuclear war is part of our strategic culture. Yes, we would have started one if our homeland, our way of life were endangered, absolutely. Why wouldn’t we? “
This is what a retired Russian diplomat told me on the sidelines of a dialogue on Route 2 between American, Russian and Chinese experts in 2012. And frankly, for several years I did not trust him. I accepted his comments as boastful, atomic machismo, if you will.
The context of the conversation was the answer to a question to my Russian colleague on the doctrine and thinking of Moscow on nuclear weapons. For several years, Russia has believed in the concept of escalating nuclear tensions to de-escalate tensions, or what defense scientists call “de-escalation escalation.”
Like an animal in a cage
The thinking is that if Moscow’s actual territory has been threatened by a predominant conventional power – say a NATO attack – then Russia reserves the right to respond with tactical nuclear weapons or more, as Moscow has no way of winning a long-term conventional war against forces. of NATO.
In fact, in the war games I have been involved in for several years, we always assume that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons against NATO if war ever breaks out.
But such thinking leaves much ground uncovered. NATO does not want to fight Moscow or attack its territory, even with Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
As early as 2012, I put pressure on my Russian counterpart, asking in what other situations Russia would use nuclear weapons, if any. He explained that “if something threatens our ability to exist as a nation and prosper, it is my opinion that we will use nuclear weapons.”
I didn’t believe him then, but I do now.
As Russian President Vladimir Putin now puts his country’s nuclear forces on alert, Moscow is signaling to us that recent arms deliveries, sanctions, media floggings and pressure on Putin’s government are shaking our nerves.
Get the latest updates in the Russia-Ukraine conflict with the direct coverage of the Post.
Putin is trying to tell us unequivocally that we are approaching his geopolitical red lines, and as an animal in a cage, he will strike back if we put too much pressure. This could even mean the use of nuclear weapons.
Recent sanctions against Russian banks and their access to the SWIFT messaging network have certainly been the reason Putin has developed his nuclear muscles. With 10 Russian banks now essentially blocked by global markets and Moscow’s central bank limited in the way it can use its $ 600 billion in foreign exchange reserves, Putin is now facing a financial crisis. which Boris Yeltsin faced in 1998 when the Russian economy nearly collapsed.
Deal or no deal
The good news, if there is any, is that peace talks appear to be under way, in which both sides could reach an agreement to end hostilities. Ukraine, for example, could make a formal commitment not to join NATO by name alone, but to join the alliance and the EU so strongly that Russia would think twice about a second invasion. Russia can accept this, knowing that its forces will now have to rely on heavy weapons, large-scale bombings, hundreds of more missile strikes and many more joint forces to truly take over Ukraine.
But here things can go from bad to worse. If both sides fail to reach an agreement, Putin may indeed decide to move all-in against Kyiv, deciding that a scorched earth policy and victory at all costs is better than taking weeks or months to take the country entirely. The level of the massacre we will see would be something like World War II images: bombed-out cities, bodies on the streets and a complete massacre everywhere.
The world will be horrified and will demand action against Russia. What would the West do? More weapons are likely to enter Ukraine on a large scale, putting more pressure on Putin to respond. This will be followed by further sanctions, including disconnection of all Russian banks and financial institutions from SWIFT, including Russian energy companies and the lifeblood of Moscow’s economy.
At this point, Russia’s way of life, its ability to exist, will be threatened. Putin’s regime will be threatened. What, oh, what will Moscow do then? Think “escalate to de-escalate” – and that could mean something terrible for all of us.
From The Spectator