Japanese superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto, CBS Sports' second-best free agent this winter, will be a Dodgers prospect. The NPB ace is expected to sign a 12-year, $325 million contract and join Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles, where the NL West darlings have plenty more to offer this offseason. Even before that, Major League Baseball's high rollers were desperate to win the sweepstakes, as the New York Mets and New York Yankees emerged as frontrunners since he was sent to the Dodgers.
Last week we laid out why teams are excited about Yamamoto, so much so that multiple league sources expressed expectations that bids would top $300 million, the previous record for a new pitcher would break from overseas (actually it's $325 million). , do this). That distinction previously belonged to Masahiro Tanaka and the $155 million pact he signed with the New York Yankees in January 2014.
The short version of this article is as follows: Yamamoto is an incredibly successful 25-year-old who has accomplished rare feats in the history of Nippon Professional Baseball. (He won the league's MVP and Cy Young equivalents each of the last three seasons.) Yamamoto also meets nearly every criteria MLB talent evaluators look for in frontline starters. From the looks of it, he has a good arsenal that includes a mid-90s fastball, a swing-and-miss splitter, and a picturesque curveball. When you consider the rich history of Japanese pitchers moving to the MLB and finding success, you have a compelling argument for spending whatever it takes to sign him this offseason.
Today we are taking a different approach. You may be familiar with the concept of the “red team” in business circles. (Well-adjusted people tend to call it “playing advocate.”) In layman’s terms, it’s a way to put thoughts and suggestions to the test. If, after poking as many holes in an idea as possible, you still think it's worth pursuing, then you can probably move on, since the idea needs to be solid to stand up to such analysis.
Below, CBS Sports has identified three risk factors with Yamamoto that may have led to teams pausing — as well as brief rebuttals to those points. Keep in mind that this is just a thought experiment.
Now let's get down to business:
Risk factor #1: He has never played in the MLB
There are some important differences between NPB and MLB. Most notably, they use different baseballs (the NPB ball is pre-pinned and often praised by Americans accustomed to MLB balls) and an alternate schedule in which the starters pitch once a week. There's a reason the Angels reliably used a six-pitcher rotation during Shohei Ohtani's time there.
There are enough cases of successful transfers that we can assume that Yamamoto will be fine. With that out of the way, we can understand why some might want to see him do it before handing over the contract reserved for only the MLB's very best starters. Proponents of this line of thinking would likely note that there is still Blake Snell on the market, a two-time Cy Young Award winner who is expected to make significantly less than Yamamoto. Should that be the case? It depends on your perspective.
Counterargument: What can we say? It is a fact that Yamamoto did not play in the MLB. Teams pride themselves on paying for what players do rather than what they have done. However, they also show an increased desire for gambling among inexperienced players who seamlessly transition to The Show. The Brewers guaranteed teenage outfielder Jackson Chourio $82 million. Admittedly, that's small money compared to the potential Yamamoto offers, but there are more examples of NPB pitchers thriving in the U.S. than contract extensions before their debut working in the team's favor. Additionally, Yamamoto has excelled in the world's second-best league and on the international stage (he even used the MLB ball in the World Baseball Classic). We think this discussion point is therefore overstated.
Risk factor #2: Yamamoto is relatively small
Teams have long sought pitchers with physically imposing frames. Think: 6'3″ (or taller) with broad shoulders. These pitchers were sought after for two main reasons. The primary assumption was that they would be better able to withstand the physical demands of more than 30 starts per season. Second, scouts and analysts believed their height would help them create a downward plane to the plate, which would add extra life to their throws that would confuse hitters.
When we wrote in the introduction that Yamamoto “meets nearly every criteria MLB talent evaluators look for in frontline starters,” this was the exception we had in mind. He is listed as being just 5 feet 7 inches tall and weighing 176 pounds.
We will note that height and weight data is notoriously unreliable – especially at extreme values. Still, there were only three pitchers last season who started 10 or more games while listed as being under 6 feet tall and lighter than 200 pounds: Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray and JP Sears. Perhaps encouragingly, if one accepts that teams are messing around with these numbers, six more pitchers were listed as being exactly 6 feet tall. It's obvious that some of these are actually shorter and provide a better proof of concept.
As for the airplane part – we’ll get into that below.
Counterargument: Are smaller pitchers actually injured more often? A decade-old Hardball Times study found that pitchers shorter than 6 feet are “twice as likely” to end up on the IL “as the general population.” If these findings were to be believed, it would be bad news for Yamamoto's employer. Other previous research suggests that past injuries are the best predictors of future injuries. Taking these findings into account, this would be good news for Yamamoto's employer since he does not have an extensive medical history.
As for the aircraft aspect – the league has charted a new course in that regard. Today, teams want pitchers with shallow release points at the top of the zone. Think of Spencer Strider, Cristian Javier or Freddy Peralta. (Strider and Peralta are both exactly 6 feet tall.) Not only does Yamamoto have that, he also has a good riser action on his fastball that allows him to rise in the zone. Consider this a subheading for good news and bad news, depending on which study you want to cover as more relevant work.
Risk Factor #3: Yamamoto is a pitcher
This one is as simple as it gets. Pitchers are difficult to rely on because they get injured far more often than hitters. There's a reason why concepts like “TINSTAAPP” remain relevant, and there's a reason why the richest contract for a pitcher (excluding Ohtani) is 11th overall.
As for our man today: Yamamoto is a pitcher – and only a pitcher. Therefore, it's reasonable to be at least a little afraid of giving him a big contract, no matter how good he is or how well his play is expected to translate to the MLB.
Counterargument: There is no real counterargument here. Pitchers get injured a lot, and even workhorses break down at some point. The best we can offer is that you still need to field a starting rotation. Yamamoto, no matter how much credence you give to the above factors, gives you the opportunity to add a starting impact player no matter how long he stays healthy. It could be one season, it could be eight. If someone figures out how to predict a pitcher's health, you can only bet on the best and healthiest players.
For many teams, no matter how often they turn to their internal “red team,” Yamamoto fits that description – which, along with everything else, is why he received his huge salary.