Military analysts say there is no chance the US, UK and their European allies will impose a no-fly zone because it could easily escalate the war in Ukraine into a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia.
WHAT IS A FREE ZONE?
The no-fly zone will prevent all unauthorized aircraft from flying over Ukraine. Western countries imposed such restrictions on parts of Iraq for more than a decade after the 1991 Gulf War, during the Bosnia and Herzegovina civil war from 1993 to 1995, and during the Libyan civil war in 2011.
WHY WON’T NATO TAKE THIS STEP IN UKRAINE?
Simply put, because it could lead to a direct military conflict with Russia, which could escalate into a wider European war with a nuclear superpower.
While the idea may have captured the public imagination, declaring a no-fly zone could force NATO pilots to shoot down Russian planes.
But it goes beyond that. In addition to NATO fighters, refueling tankers and electronic surveillance aircraft will need to be used to support the mission.
To protect these relatively slow, high-flying aircraft, NATO would have to destroy the anti-aircraft missile batteries in Russia and Belarus, which again could lead to a wider conflict.
“The only way to create a no-fly zone is to send NATO fighters into Ukrainian airspace and then enter that no-fly zone by shooting down Russian planes,” NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said Friday.
“We understand the desperation, but we also believe that if we did, we would get what could end in a full-scale war in Europe.”
“As NATO allies, we have a responsibility to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine,” he said.
WHAT IS A FREE ZONE?
Ukrainian authorities and the people who hide night after night in bomb shelters say the no-fly zone will protect civilians, and now nuclear power plants, from Russian air strikes.
But analysts say it is Russian ground forces, not aviation, that are doing the most damage to Ukraine.
What Ukrainians really want is a broader intervention, like what happened in Libya in 2011, when NATO forces launched attacks on government positions, said Justin Bronk, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. This is unlikely to happen when the adversary is Russia.
“They want the West to invade and destroy the rocket artillery shelling Ukrainian cities,” Bronk said.
“We are not going to fight the Russian army. They are a huge nuclear power. There is no way we can model, let alone control, the chain of escalation that could result from such an action.”
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE SKY OVER UKRAINE?
Predictions that Russia would quickly control the skies over Ukraine have not materialized.
Military experts are wondering why Russia chose to leave most of its warplanes on the ground during this massive ground offensive.
One explanation could be that Russian pilots are not well trained to support large-scale ground operations, combat that requires coordination with artillery, helicopters and other assets in a rapidly changing environment.
“I think maybe they are a little concerned that this is a very limited area. This is not the Middle East where you can roam freely through the air,” said Robert Lateef, a retired US Air Force major general who now teaches at the University of Notre Dame.
“They could cross borders very easily,” he explained.
“And Ukrainian and Russian air defense systems, and Ukrainian, what little they have, and Russian planes flying around – it can be very confusing. I think maybe they’re a little worried about actually being able to pull it off.”