Donald Trump’s relationship with Ukraine has been stormy. The first impeachment of the former president came in 2019, when a US Congressional investigation concluded that the Trump administration blackmailed Ukrainian authorities by blocking military aid to their country when they failed to investigate alleged corruption in Ukraine against Joe Biden. and his son Hunter. Trump has always been conciliatory with Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin was also behind a massive smear campaign that undermined Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid against the tycoon in 2016. Trump, who is the favorite in polls to return to the presidency and succeed Biden, has insisted that if elected the war would end “in 2016 within 24 hours.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded to him on Sunday for the first time: “I only need 24 minutes, no more, to explain to him that he cannot manage this war.” “He cannot achieve peace and the reason is Putin.”
Kiev’s main concern in the international diplomatic body is the Republican Party. Zelensky himself declared in Washington on September 21 that “without the United States, Ukraine will lose the war.” In fact, the conservative majority in Congress blocked future allocations to Ukraine last September. In October, Republicans prioritized helping Israel with its invasion of Gaza and again blocked Biden’s request to quickly fund Ukraine with the largest budget yet – $60 billion. There are ardent allies of Kiev among Republicans, but the majority of critics believe unconditional support is untenable.
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“American taxpayers are growing tired of having to fund a forever war in which there is stalemate and no sign of victory,” eight Republican members of Congress said in an Oct. 31 letter to Biden. The letter set out twelve conditions that the White House must meet and, most importantly, called for clarity in forecasts about how the war might end: “Until your administration satisfactorily meets these conditions, funding for Ukraine will be suspended not considered in Congress.”
The situation is not new, but Ukraine’s inability to advance on the front lines and general war weariness – both in Ukraine and in the rest of the world, as Zelensky has acknowledged – are increasing pressure to end the conflict. . Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba expressed concern in a television interview on October 30 about the deadlock in the US Congress and “about the significant political resistance” that exists to support Ukraine, although he was sure that the Republicans would end up in the end will offer support. A year earlier, Kuleba had already acknowledged in the digital media Axios “the concern” that there was in his country about the Republicans’ promise to cut off the tap in the general elections in November 2022. “I think we can solve it,” the head of the State Department said at the time: “People make political statements before elections and after elections they pursue different policies.”
However, Republicans kept their word and “did not give Ukraine a blank check,” as Congressman Kevin McCarthy explained. In addition, the tone towards Kiev will continue to tighten as the presidential elections scheduled for November 2024 approach. The most populist voices among the Republican primary candidates will not be left out. Vivek Ramaswamy made it clear in an interview with journalist Piers Morgan on October 30: If he is elected president, he will reach an agreement to end the war in which, in addition to blocking the territories of Ukraine, he will give Russia control of the territory The territories he conquered are guaranteed to join NATO.
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Trump is the greatest representative of populism and Republican extremism, and on the Ukraine issue he was no less. In an interview with the Fox network last July, the former president stated: “As you know, I get along well with Putin, and I would tell him that the problem needs to be solved, and I would tell Zelensky that it is solved must be done, and.” I would receive an agreement within 24 hours. The death toll they tell us is not true, hundreds of thousands of people are dying.” “They ask you if you’re on the side of Russia or Ukraine,” Trump said, “but I don’t know that more people die.”
Zelensky responded to Trump this Sunday in an interview on NBC television: “I invite Donald Trump to come here, he will be welcome, and when he comes, I will need 24 minutes, no more, to explain to him that he can’t do it.” War, he can’t achieve peace unless it involves ceding our territory to Putin, unless he’s willing to give up our independence. If so, then there is no way to deal with the war.” The Ukrainian president remains firmly convinced that peace can only be negotiated if Russia gives up all occupied territories.
Trump’s chances of being re-elected as president in 2024 depend primarily on whether he navigates the various legal proceedings in which he is embroiled. Zelensky admitted on NBC that he doubts whether a Trump administration could be an ally of Ukraine: “I really don’t know.” There appears to be a clear shift in the rhetoric from the political leadership in Kiev so far in the had publicly expressed their belief that the two American parties would always side with Ukraine when it came to driving Russia out of its territory. Zelensky, as on other occasions, trusted public opinion: “Not everything depends on the presidents, on the institutions, the most important thing is the opinion of the people, the people.” However, public opinion is also deteriorating: according to a Gallup Poll taken on November 2, 41% of Americans believe their government is doing “too much” for Ukraine; In June this group made up 29% of respondents and in January it was 28%.
Political scientist Viktor Kaspruk summarized the Ukrainian fear this Monday: “Whether the defense against Moscow continues successfully depends on Biden in Congress pushing forward aid for Ukraine.” “And what happens from then on will depend on whether Ukraine achieves more successes on the front, and also from the results of the US elections,” this analyst continued on the Ukrainian digital television channel Espresso, “but unfortunately both factors will come back.” Opposites.” Kaspruk pointed out that military aid for Ukraine will continue to be lower than what is necessary to win the war in order not to lose popularity.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeri Zaluzhni, made similar comments last week in The Economist: The front is stagnating, and “very likely” it will continue like this for at least another year because his troops do not have more and better weapons from NATO -Allies. Zaluzhni confirmed that foreign military support was slow and insufficient to prevent a NATO confrontation with Russia. The Republican strategy makes it even more difficult for Ukraine to advance in the war.
Israel, the priority
“Russia wants to focus the world’s attention on Ukraine,” Zelensky added on NBC, reiterating his claim that the Kremlin is behind Hamas’ attacks against Israel. This speech is given by the President and all his confidants. Kirilo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s intelligence service, suggested in an interview in the Pravda newspaper last October that if Israel’s war lasts longer than a few weeks, “there will certainly be problems, because Ukraine will not be the only one “Country in need of ammunition and weapons.” Mark. F. Cancian, an American colonel and expert at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, emphasized in a document dated October 12 that “Israel will have priority because its relations with the United States are closer and longer than with Ukraine.” This is the position that the Republicans take.
The more complicated the situation in Washington becomes, the more eyes are turning to the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, visited Kiev on Saturday to reaffirm the EU’s support for Ukraine, including a new 50 billion euro aid plan. In addition, Von der Leyen ruled out signing possible negotiations to reach a ceasefire without meeting Kiev’s demands.
French General Jerôme Pellistrandi, a regular analyst of the war, said in a telephone interview with this newspaper last week that now more than ever it is necessary for Europe to take the lead that the United States has so far held: “In the coming months, ever The closer the election campaign gets, the more important internal affairs become [de las presidenciales], it will be harder for Biden to convince public opinion that Ukraine needs to be given more money. “Europe has a responsibility and the threat is against Europe, so we must take greater leadership in the coming months.”
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