FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
ZAPORIZHZHIA – Volodymyr Zelensky and the drama of consensus. If we were to write a book about the Ukrainian president, this title could probably summarize his biggest dilemma in leading the country in wartime. What to do? Satisfy the desires of public opinion or enforce them? And the question could be even more oriented towards his biography, which is shaped by his years in the world of entertainment: should he follow his actor’s instinct in the constant search for applause or instead enforce his decisions, even if he is booed for it?
The question is not trivial, considering that in recent weeks the dilemma has increased among Western allies, especially the United States, about what to do if the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to progress sluggishly or even stalls a growing number of victims and destruction. Continue fighting or negotiate?
It’s not just about that, it’s not about peace or war, because negotiating means accepting the idea of a territorial compromise with Vladimir Putin, who for the vast majority of Ukrainians is simply a “terrorist, a bandit at the top.” Bands of criminals who have come to steal our country and who are ready to do it again if we prove weak,” repeat Zelensky himself, his advisers, military leaders and many civilians we meet every day.
There can be little doubt about this: even now, over 18 months after the start of the Russian invasion, the gross national product has fallen to half of 2021, Pentagon experts speak of over 70,000 dead soldiers and 120,000 wounded, given the demographic crisis, sparked by displaced people abroad, the vast majority of Ukrainians continue to reject any idea of renunciation of Russian-occupied territories. Indeed, if before February 24, 2022 there was a kind of resignation in a part of public opinion at the Crimea “stolen” by Putin in 2014 and even the possibility that the so-called “autonomous republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk would remain, In the orbit around Moscow, the slogan of a complete return to the 1991 borders has now become a kind of popular mantra.
“One thing is certain. So far, Zelensky knows full well that he would lose a large part of the votes if he decided to negotiate with Putin. And he has no intention of losing his popularity, which is still at 90 percent lose. His calculation is not cynical. But it is an instinct that is stronger than him: the actor needs flowers thrown by the audience, he avoids the crowd’s boos like the plague. His presidency ended after the big election victory with almost 75 percent of the vote in 2019 in January 2022 not good. He seemed to be facing defeat. After the Russian attack, things changed. A terrible peacetime president became a great wartime leader. And that’s because he didn’t appear as a politician, but as “A very good actor adapted and modeled his words, his style and his actions to the needs of the masses,” claims the historian Jaroslav Hryzak, author of a recent history of Ukraine and attentive commentator.
In this interpretation, Zelensky’s attitude will therefore change. If his choices and decisions are shaped by the wishes of the people, we will have to wait and see what the mood of Ukrainians will be next. Hrytsak adds: “Zelensky is not dogmatic at all. On the contrary, it adapts, listens and tries to understand how to interpret the feelings of its people. Today the decision for all-out combat prevails. Even in Crimea it was probably misunderstood. When he says that perhaps the final status can be negotiated, he first says that the Russians must have completely withdrawn and that sovereignty remains entirely with us. But if Ukrainian public opinion turns out to be tired and willing to compromise with the onset of the rains and in the event that the war actually stalls, he would be the first to start negotiations, perhaps not directly, but through intermediaries. And it would be a different story.