JERUSALEM – Iran has come dangerously close to enriching weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, but the regime has not yet crossed the critical threshold of declaring that it has built a nuclear weapon.
Fox News Digital turned to experts on Iran’s more than two-decade effort to join the small group of countries that have nuclear weapons for explanations on what is preventing Tehran from crossing the nuclear threshold.
“If there is any reason to believe that there are a number of inhibitors that have put their weapons development on hold, they would relate to targeted attacks by the US and Israel, who are obviously very keen on stopping the mullahs.” explained Lisa Daftari, Iran expert and editor-in-chief of the Foreign Desk.
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Daftari added, “Over the past 15 or so years, Israel has reportedly conducted at least two dozen targeted operations against the Iranian regime, including drone strikes, cyberattacks if you remember Stuxnet, and assassinations of key players in Iran’s nuclear program.”
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The flag of Iran flies in front of the International Center building at the International Atomic Energy Agency headquarters in Vienna, Austria, May 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Florian Schroetter, FILE)
“We must not underestimate the power of international pressure on the Iranian regime,” Daftari told Fox News Digital.
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“That pressure has been eased under this current government, which is withdrawing from the nuclear deal but still hoping to revive some form of normalization deal with Tehran. Otherwise, consistent and targeted pressure will be applied to the Iranian regime in the form of…” “We see a weakened regime and an emboldened Iranian people who are brave enough to take to the streets,” she said.
Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser to the Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasted last year that “Iran is on the verge of nuclear power, and it’s no secret,” according to a report by the state-controlled Tehran Times the year 2022 .
Just this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency announced that the Iranian regime had enriched uranium to a purity of 84%, which is 6% less than the 90% enriched uranium required for a nuclear weapon.
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An Iranian military truck hauls surface-to-air missiles past a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a parade on the country’s annual Army Day April 18, 2018 in Tehran. (Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images)
The Iranian regime is testing the resolve of the United States and other world powers, which have repeatedly said they will not allow Iran to build a nuclear weapon. Israel views Tehran’s nuclear weapons program as an existential threat because Tehran has repeatedly said it wants to wipe it out.
“It is an open question whether Khamenei wants to die as the father of the Shia nuclear bomb or as the one who kept the Islamic Republic on the path of the nuclear bomb without provoking a war or pulling the trigger,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior Fellow and Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
“Right now, however, Khamenei’s perception of diplomatic and security success abroad and superiority at all costs at home may be enough to push him over the edge as he ages,” added Taleblu, who recently authored a comprehensive assessment of Iran’s ballistic missile skills and intentions.
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Fox News Digital reported this week that Iran is digging deep tunnels near a peak in central Iran’s Zagros Mountains to protect a nuclear facility from attacks by conventional weapons.
This file photo released by the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran on Nov. 5, 2019 shows centrifuge machines at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility in central Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP, file)
Aside from the technological obstacles to building a modern nuclear weapon, the Iranian regime has faced deterrence measures from Israel and the United States over the years, including the sabotage of the regime’s nuclear fuel production system by the Stuxnet computer worm.
“I think the Iranian leadership has so far calculated that the costs of doing so would outweigh the benefits at this point – mainly a destructive attack targeting the entire nuclear infrastructure,” said Jason Brodsky, political director of the US-based organization. United Against a Nuclear Iran” ( UANI), told Fox News Digital.
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National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks during a news conference at the White House March 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
“But I fear the calculus may be changing, as US and European failure to respond to Iran’s nuclear escalation over the past two years – such as enriching and producing uranium metal by 60% – has emboldened Tehran’s leadership to continue international reds.” to test lines.”
Brodsky added: “Unless that perception changes, Iran is likely to enrich uranium to 90% to weapons-grade levels. Tehran’s risk aversion to date shows that it can be deterred. But that can change quickly if the Islamic Republic gets a no.” Opposition to the further development of its nuclear program.
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Earlier this month, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, speaking at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that the Biden administration “made it clear to Iran that it could never be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon as President Biden has repeatedly affirmed, “He will take the necessary actions to stand by this statement, including recognizing Israel’s freedom of action.”
“We have restored unity of intentions between the United States and Europe and much of the world against Iranian provocations and nuclear activities,” he said, also noting that the US is pressuring “Iran” “through sanctions.”
Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri and IRGC Aerospace Forces Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh stand together at the unveiling of a Kheibar-Sheka missile at an undisclosed location in Iran February 9, 2022. (West Asia News Agency/Handout via Portal)
“Iran did not cross the threshold of building a nuclear weapon because the Supreme Leader did not decide to weaponize the program,” Joel Rubin, a former deputy secretary of state who served in the Obama administration, told Fox News Digital.
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“This position has been corroborated by multiple US intelligence assessments over the past few years.” He continued, “While only the Supreme Leader can truly say why he took this position, it is known that the international community’s continued diplomatic isolation causing pain to the Iranian regime after expanding its nuclear program.”
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Rubin said it was clear that Tehran “is still open to pursuing a diplomatic route, knowing that the country would become even more isolated internationally — even from its allies,” Rubin said. “It would trigger a regional nuclear arms race and Tehran would never escape the sanctions pressure it is currently facing,” he said.
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“It has become clear over the past few years that a firm, verifiable diplomatic deal with Iran over its nuclear program is the best way to ensure it never acquires a nuclear weapon. Military threats alone will not get us there,” concluded Rubin.
US Central Command and the IDF are participating in a joint military exercise called “Exercise Juniper Oak” taking place in Israel and the eastern Mediterranean. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
According to Israeli media, a low-intensity military deterrent has been carried out against the Iranian regime for several years.
“We have the capability to attack Iran,” Israel’s defense chief warned this week.
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The US military and Israel Defense Forces launched a joint exercise, Juniper Falcon, in February. According to the IDF’s website, “The exercise tested collective readiness between the US and Israel and strengthened interoperability between the two militaries,” the IDF said on its website after the exercise.
Still, there are growing concerns that the Biden administration is not putting enough pressure on the Iranian regime to change its behavior. Over 100 former leaders this week urged Biden to crack down on Iran.
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly said earlier this week during a visit to Hatzor Air Force Base that Israel was preparing for a “complex, difficult and more significant objective.”
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Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, points to a red line he drew on a graphic of a bomb as he addressed the United Nations General Assembly September 27, 2012 in New York City. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)
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Military deterrence was the single greatest factor in slowing down Iran’s illicit nuclear program. US saber-rattling has led to a change in behavior in the Islamic Republic.
In 2007, a declassified US intelligence estimate of “high certainty” found that the Iranian regime had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Iran experts believe the Islamic Republic temporarily pulled the plug on its illegal nuclear program due to the US invasion of Iraq and fears the US would launch a military invasion of Iran.
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The sheer survival of the Iranian regime forced then-Supreme Leader Khomeini to agree to a ceasefire with Iraq in 1988 after eight years of war. At the time, he compared the truce to drinking from a “poisoned cup.”
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American pressure prompted Khomeini to release US hostages in 1981 during the diplomatic crisis. All of these examples suggest that the Iranian regime is enormously vulnerable to military pressure and other forms of influence that threaten its legitimacy and existence.
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“The Iranian regime is quite calculating,” Daftari said. “As rogue as they have been in hijacking oil tankers in the seas, continued support for regional terror, and of course the brutal mass execution of innocent protesters, they continue to weigh the consequences of a heated military confrontation with Israel or the United States.”