Crowd applauds military convoy after coup declaration in Gabon
The recent wave of military coups in Africa is a warning signal for the entire world.
Since 2020, the military has seized power in several countries on the African continent: Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and most recently on August 30 in Gabon, an oilrich Central African country.
In some countries, military juntas have announced that they will hand over power to elected governments, but only after a transition period that is expected to last several years. And there is no guarantee that this period will not be extended under the pretext of combating jihadist attacks like those in Mali or Burkina Faso or to enable the transformations deemed necessary by the military junta.
More and more influential military officials are deciding to shape the future of their own country together with support groups.
1 of 6 countries where there were coups between 2021 and 2023 Photo: Kayan Albertin/g1 Countries where there were coups between 2021 and 2023 Photo: Kayan Albertin/g1
In the history of Africa, especially in most Frenchspeaking countries on the continent, coups are not uncommon.
But in the last three years, the incidence has increased significantly compared to the period between 2000 and 2020, which was characterized by the dominance of democratically elected governments and high economic growth rates in most African countries.
2 of 6 The military seized power in Gabon immediately after the election results were announced, which President Ali Bongo won for the third time. The opposition claims there was fraud in the elections Photo: Portal via BBC The military seized power in Gabon immediately after the results of the elections were announced, which President Ali Bongo won for the third time. The opposition claims there was fraud in the elections Photo: Portal via BBC
At this time, the founding of the African Union took place, bringing with it a wave of optimistic predictions about the future of the continent.
But the Covid19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine had strong social consequences. Inflation has pushed up food and fuel prices, exacerbating preexisting economic problems and political contradictions in African countries.
In Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, for example, jihadist groups were activated, making West Africa one of the most unstable regions in the world since 2012. In Guinea and Gabon there have been allegations of fraud and authoritarianism on the part of elected presidents.
A major factor in most African countries remains the population explosion. The number of young people is constantly growing and there are not enough jobs. As a result, support for elected governments was insufficient during coups, while the central squares of cities were full of dissatisfied young people supporting the military.
3 out of 6 supporters celebrate the August 30 coup with the military in Gabon Photo: Portal via BBC Supporters celebrate the August 30 coup with the military in Gabon Photo: Portal via BBC
Those responsible for the military coups exploited antiWestern, especially antiFrench, sentiments to the greatest extent possible.
Almost all countries that have suffered coups are former French colonies. In them, France exercised great and lasting influence within the framework of the concept of “Françafrique” or “French Africa” a system of strong political and economic ties influencing the domestic and foreign policies of African countries.
During the Cold War, France supported the transition of power in some African countries. But even more recently, French presidents particularly Nicolas Sarkozy, who held the presidency between 2007 and 2012 have been accused of interfering in the internal affairs of some African nations, particularly through France’s active participation in the war in Libya against Muammar Gaddafi. , in 2011.
In recent years, France has tried to build a new image in African countries, but there are widespread accusations of practicing “double standards”.
President Emmanuel Macron, for example, condemned the coups in Mali and Niger, whose military tried to break off relations with France. But the French president remained loyal to Chadian military leader Mahamat Déby, who wants to maintain relations with Paris.
The military junta of Mali and Burkina Faso began to actively build relations with opponents of the West, primarily Russia. And the Burkina Faso junta, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, also announced its desire to develop close relations with China, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela.
Supporters of the military use France and other Western countries as scapegoats. They accuse them of resisting change and causing all the problems.
4 of 6 The military has seized power in four West African countries in the last three years: Guinea (with leader Mamadou Dumbuya), Mali (Assimi Goïta), Burkina Faso (Ibrahim Traoré) and Niger (Omar Chiani) Photo: Portal via BBC The military has seized power in four West African countries in the last three years: Guinea (with leader Mamadou Dumbuya), Mali (Assimi Goïta), Burkina Faso (Ibrahim Traoré) and Niger (Omar Chiani) Photo: Portal via BBC
The July coup in Niger a uranium and oilrich country in West Africa was the litmus test for the response of the West and the democratic countries of the African continent.
The Nigerialed Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) issued an ultimatum to the Nigerian military junta, demanding the return of power to elected President Mohamed Bazoum and threatening to send a combined military contingent to the country.
The deadline for the ultimatum has long since passed and the threat of military intervention has not materialized. Therefore, imposing economic sanctions remains the only way to combat the military regime. And the failure to follow through on the vehement threats served to convince the ambitious military that the establishment of dictatorships in the region would not face much resistance.
In fact, the Nigerian military junta has signed mutual assistance agreements with the militaries of Burkina Faso and Mali, allowing them to send troops into their territory in the event of an ECOWAS intervention. And Niger’s military rulers are now demanding that France withdraw its troops (there are 1,500 French soldiers in the country) and the French ambassador to the African country.
So far, Paris has ignored the demands because it does not consider the military junta to be a legitimate government.
The tensions and uncertainties surrounding Niger meant that the worst predictions that successive military coups would lead like a domino effect to the collapse of democratic regimes in Africa came partially true.
Of course, in some African countries the military has never been in power such as Senegal, Tanzania, Kenya and several others. It is difficult to imagine military coups taking place in these countries.
But in many other countries, ambitious officials may be unable to resist the temptation to seize power, particularly in Frenchspeaking countries with their weak political institutions and history of past coups.
The recent coup in Gabon can also be viewed as a “palace coup”. Finally, the “Committee for Transition and Institutional Restoration” created by the military was headed by the cousin of ousted President Ali Bongo the commander of the Republican Guard, General Brice Cloter Oligi Ngema.
Ngema didn’t appear by chance. He was assistant to the deposed leader’s father, Omar Bongo (19352009), who was the country’s president for 42 years.
After Bongo’s death, Ngema was ignored by his son for some time and sent into “diplomatic exile” as a military attaché. But in 2019 he returned to the country in a high position.
5 of 6 Opponents of President Ali Bongo hug the Republican Guard fighter who led the coup in Gabon Photo: Portal via BBC Opponents of President Ali Bongo hug the Republican Guard fighter who led the coup in Gabon Photo: Portal via BBC
It’s no surprise that crowds are celebrating the president’s impeachment. After all, the Bongo dynasty ruled Gabon for 56 years.
The opposition repeatedly accused the then president of election fraud and usurpation of power. But like other military juntas, Gabon is likely to have an interim government that will delay the next elections as long as possible.
And if Western powers demand a return to democratic rule, the military could look for new international partners.
What happens next?
The establishment of military regimes in many African countries could have catastrophic consequences for the continent.
Military juntas can use budget resources and take out international loans without appropriate social control. They can also more easily silence journalists and their dissatisfied opposition.
With Western powers and international financial institutions unwilling to lend money to regimes deemed illegitimate, the military will continue to seek military and financial support from Russia and China to gain access to natural resources and support for its foreign policy.
Mali, for example, which previously abstained from voting on resolutions on Ukraine’s integrity, has now voted against a similar resolution in February 2023.
But Russian aid helped neither Mali nor Burkina Faso solve their internal security problems. For example, according to the NGO Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the year 2022 was the deadliest in these countries in terms of the number of victims of jihadist attacks.
As a result, the economies and political institutions of African countries that have fallen under military rule could ultimately be further weakened, in addition to a number of unresolved security problems and an even greater desire among young people to leave their country.
6 of 6 Gabon’s ousted President Ali Bongo recorded a video message asking the international community for help Photo: Portal via BBC Gabon’s ousted President Ali Bongo recorded a video message asking the international community asks for help Photo: Portal via BBC