María Corina Machado during an interview with EL PAÍS via Zoom on July 6 in Caracas. Gaby Oraa
With a month left until the primaries of the Venezuelan opposition, which has agreed to elect a unified leadership that can be presented as an alternative to Chavismo in the 2024 presidential elections, the right-wing María Corina Machado is taking advantage in all opinion polls to lead them with comfort. The politician’s approval rating hovers around 40% and is rising, tripling that of her closest competitor, Henrique Capriles Radonski.
Like the other candidates, Machado implements his political messages without access to television or mass media and regularly has to deal with acts of sabotage. The rise of his candidacy has been so dizzying that his numbers suggest that if Venezuela were to organize verifiable electoral consultations with guarantees, he would not even have to bother to conclude uniform agreements.
“Machado’s growth is very significant,” says political consultant Osvaldo Ramírez. “There are several reasons for this. A context in which people feel detached from politics and the ruling party. People are suggesting that there could be a renewal of the opposition leadership. The traditional leadership of the unity platform is taking its toll here. “María Corina’s efforts to stand out among them have paid off,” she adds.
According to Ramírez, eight out of ten Venezuelans want political change in the country. Although Chavismo is organized and present throughout the country, today it is a retreating movement. This year’s economic stagnation puts Nicolás Maduro in a particularly critical moment of acceptance.
The founder of the Vente Venezuela party receives a loud welcome from the cities she visits, although it is known that, like Capriles, she is officially barred from participating in the presidential elections due to an administrative measure by the Chavista government. Without discussing the reasons or validity of the disqualification, Diosdado Cabello has stated several times that it will be impossible for Machado To as a candidate under this measure, claiming that she is “deceiving her supporters.”
The president of the country’s National Electoral Council, Elvis Amoroso, author of the disqualifications, has decided to give a late response to the request of the Primary Electoral Commission two months ago for technical cooperation in connection with the previous directive of the electoral authority. The disqualification of Machado and Capriles seems to be an unshakable criterion in Chavismo. Some opposition parties are interested in reaching an agreement with the CNE. Amoroso’s response suggests that Chavismo is succeeding in dividing its opponents once again.
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As Machado’s leadership grows, the scenario on which it should be legitimized, namely the primary organization itself, is under a harsh political and institutional siege. There are many people who fear that the elections cannot be held. Every Wednesday, Diosdado Cabello, top leader of the ruling PSUV, intrigues on his television show about the alleged shortcomings of the event and the internal disagreements of its organizers, predicting that they will not be organized. He has questioned the origins of the financing of the primaries and requested an investigation against José María Casal, president of the electoral commission.
Although the candidates are still confirmed, the deadlines are met and even the ballot papers have been issued, fear is spreading. Some civilian volunteers in the trial have resigned, citing technical excuses. Some voting centers will have complicated objectives and will be subject to Chavismo’s attacks or its legal reprisals. María Carolina Uzcátegui, key member of the Primary Electoral Commission, has not only resigned but is now running a forceful campaign reiterating that the logistical requirements have not been met and the consultation is no longer sustainable.
The Unity Platform released a statement denouncing “the plan undertaken by Nicolás Maduro, through his various spokesmen, against the right of the Venezuelan people to elect their unity candidate through democratic elections.” Nuevo Tiempo’s Omar Barboza, executive secretary of the platform, explained that there was a “perverse plan” orchestrated from Miraflores to weaken the will and “attract speakers” who would discredit the election.
It is very obvious that part of the moderate opposition has a clear opposition to Machado and would be interested in how he stops them. Once again, rumors about alternative solutions and amicable formulas for agreeing on a candidate are increasing.
“The majority of the country sees the primaries positively and is aware of their importance, but that does not mean that everyone will take part,” says Félix Seijas, director of the Delphos company. “The intention to vote is not that high, and that’s normal, it happens a lot at events like this.” Seijas estimates that 8% of voters – those most committed to democratic change – end up attending the October 22 event become. Osvaldo Ramírez’s company expects 12 to 14%.
“The primaries fulfilled their fundamental function of reconnecting the parties with the citizens, and María Corina Machado coped very well with this circumstance,” says Eglée González Lobato of the Central University of Venezuela. The analyst emphasizes that this “strategic mechanism” puts Machado at odds, since in the past he has abstained from both political negotiations and electoral consultations. “I think she tends to become isolated in this context. His eventual victory turns many people against him because of his inflexibility.”
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