Before October 7, it was very difficult to find an optimistic assessment of the situation in Gaza and the West Bank. The widespread media and political neglect surrounding the conflict between Israel and its neighbors has been relentlessly exploited by the extremist government of Benjamin Netanyahu to further its plan to gain territorial control of historic Palestine.
Therefore now, Given what Israel's punitive action entails, it is not surprising that the darkness seems to encompass everything, painting an absolutely bleak panorama of the immediate future..
On the one hand, it is clear that the Hamas coup not only failed to break the dominance of the Israeli government, but also failed to mobilize the international community to the Palestinian cause (aside from empty words and meaningless General Assembly resolutions). the UN) and did not even provoke a general escalation by its theoretical regional allies that would force the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to deal with multiple fronts at the same time.
The only thing he managed to do was portray his enemies as systematic violators of international law, express shame to Washington, and portray the European Union and Arab governments as helpless observers of the tragedy. But we already knew all this without having to subject the people of Gaza to a massacre of biblical proportions.
And it cannot be said that, from a military perspective, its fighters are producing a performance that will force the IDF to slow down its offensive or reformulate its plans.
Although the scale of the massacre and destruction suggests otherwise, Israel cannot present a better record at the end of the year. After the monumental failure of the political assessment of the threat (with Netanyahu in its sights) and in light of the lessons learned from the five punitive operations conducted in the Gaza Strip since the beginning of the century, the IDF is conducting an offensive that combines attacks with artillery and air power with mechanized and armored force deployments to not only weaken the military capabilities of their opponents, but also to collectively punish unarmed civilians and destroy their livelihoods.
Simply by applying the Dahiya doctrine – which establishes the expediency of striking disproportionately without distinguishing between combatants and civilians – he increased the level of punishment with such subtle technological contributions as the Habsora (Gospel) artificial intelligence program, to the point that there has been a humanitarian crisis that leaves no one safe, in an effort to make clear that there is no future for the Palestinians in Gaza.
Over time, Netanyahu and his cabinet colleagues ultimately destroyed the image of Israel as a supposed democracy that fulfills its obligations as an occupying power, respects international law and is guided by the values and principles that flow from its own religion.
This is the same Netanyahu who dreams of staying in power on the wave of war and avoiding prison, and who knows that what he is doing will have no short-term costs. But he must also know that in this way he will not be able to completely eliminate Hamas by military means, nor to demilitarize Gaza, nor, let alone, to deradicalize the Palestinians.
On the contrary, and after years of demonstrating his mastery at playing the historical victim role that serves as an argument to punish and demonize those who disagree with his approaches, it is fair to assume that he is, too If he doesn't want to admit it, he will seed the occupied territory with new terrorists.
No solution in sight
And the worst part is that as we look ahead, there is nothing to suggest that the outlook points to any solution. On the one hand, One can only assume that Hamas will become even more radicalized and that the anger and desperation of many survivors of the massacre will make them even more tempted to resort to violence.
On the other hand, It is enough to listen to the incendiary proclamations of Israeli political and military spokesmen who demand a limitless increase in sentences, the continuation of attacks even if prisoners are exchanged again, and ethnic cleansing – with the euphemism of “voluntary migration”. to Sinai or to the countries willing to accept the survivors – to conclude that Netanyahu and his people will move forward.
They rely on their own superiority, on unequivocal American support (a new example of the stubbornness of being on the wrong side of history), and on the unwillingness of the rest of the governments to go beyond complaining and dismay.
Insisting that what has happened in these last two months represents a turning point, meaning that from now on everything will be different and that the brutal human and political impact will ultimately accelerate the search for a just solution to the conflict , can only be explained by historical forgetting.
After six Arab-Israeli wars, two Palestinian intifadas and more than seventy failed peace plans and initiatives, it is time to accept that there is no quick solution. An impossibility that arises not from the inability to imagine solutions, but from the confirmation of the unwillingness of those who can force an agreement (especially the US, Israel and the Palestinians) to break out of their usual rut I have been for several decades on the way. And Israel is the one that benefits the most from this.
JAN