Eight years have passed since the Republican Party surrendered to America's poor Trumpist populism and nothing seems to have gotten better. The passage of time has reinforced the purely fascist character of Trump's proposal – the charismatic leader whose actions are above the law, the constant search for all possible foreign enemies, the justification of a threatened indigenous community (America) that inevitably leaves out millions of citizens… – and does not seem to have diminished his popular support at all. Quite the opposite.
This, of course, has to do with the appeal of brute force in a society where the instantaneous (direct action) increasingly predominates, but also that Inability of the Democratic Party to formulate a response minimally attractive constitution. Barring any last-minute unforeseen events, Trump's rival (then 78 years old) will be there again in November 2024 Joe Biden (shortly before his 82nd birthday and with several episodes during his term that put his health into question).
American politics is stagnating, and this is very dangerous considering that the United States remains the standard bearer of the Western project. Trump almost had one Dozens of opponents in the Republican primaries, but none of them were big enough to bother entering into a public debate. The soufflé Ron DeSantis He collapsed shortly after reconfirming his position as governor of Florida in the 2022 general election. Mike Penceformer vice president, never started in the elections. Nikki HaleyAs an extremely bankable candidate, she will obviously have no time to defend herself against her boss in the previous government.
More of the same from the Democratic Party. Or worse. When Obama's eight years ended, Democrats were torn Hillary Clinton (69 years old at the time) and Bernie Sanders (75). After the failure of the first, they turned to Biden (78). In other words, they had eight years to find a candidate who is not at the end of his political career, but who shares the excitement of the beginning with voters. A Bill Clinton, a Barack Obama. Neither Alexandra Ocasio Cortez Not to mention that Kamala Harris, the unpopular vice president, has taken the expected step forward. Neither does Pete Buttigieg.
Trump is ahead in the polls
It cannot be said that the Biden administration has failed: the country has emerged from the pandemic stronger, it has shown remarkable job creation figures, and its foreign policy – even as a legacy of the Afghanistan disaster – is consistent with its alliances remained. Biden has strengthened NATO and it was shown hostile to Russia, China and North Korea, something Trump has always handled with a certain randomness. However, his acceptance is very low, the worst of any president, even lower than that of Donald Trump himself at the end of his third year in office.
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Democrats insist, probably rightly, that the next election could be a turning point one before and one after in the history of the United States and its democracy. However, they chose an octogenarian and very poorly rated candidate. Biden would be 86 years old at the end of his second term. Sometimes you have to make it easier for the voter. According to the latest polls, he is between three and four points behind Trump in the popular vote. That would mean a real walk in the park for the Republicans when it comes to the distribution of votes.
In part it is a new scenario for Trump. Neither in 2016 nor in 2020 did he enter the elections at the top of the polls. A large part of his tactic was to mobilize through heroism: to silence the mouths of those who already thought him dead, and with him those MAGA movement. In any case, it is a worrying scenario. Ideology aside, a Trump victory would be terrible news for the world and the United States. Staring into the abyss can be fun, a kind of aesthetic dizziness, but the reality is something else… and the reality of four years of the Trump administration invites pessimism.
The memory of the attack on the Capitol
First, we should see how he handles power after attempting to maintain it by force on January 6, 2021. Trump He is accused of several crimes, but a recurring accusation is an attempt to interfere in the most sacred process of all democracies: the counting and validation of citizens' votes. Before Trump sent an armed mob to prevent the proclamation of Biden as the legitimate president of the United States, he tried all the political tricks that his immense power gave him. It took the strong will and commitment of many men to the Constitution for him to not get his way.
It is understandable that a new Trump administration would begin its mandate where it left off, namely in trying to stay in power. At 78, Trump cannot aspire to many years in the White House, but he can completely pervert the rules of the game so that the United States ceases to be a democracy and becomes a banana republic, with successors being elected at the same time. Finger and the complicit silence of other state agencies, most of which are controlled by the Republican Party itself.
Currently, Trump's only proposals are about this Fight against immigrationby resorting too often to the theory of replacement, the return to the mythical America, which is not known whether it ever existed, but which would have been perverted by awakened values and the changing balance of power between the races and vague promises of tax cuts and Revitalizing an economy that, it must be emphasized, is not exactly a catastrophe at the moment.
The alliance with Putin
Nevertheless, Trump's victory would be a catastrophe, especially for us Europeans Foreign policy. First of all, Trump is a big fan of Wladimir Putin. He wants to control his country the way he controls Russia. He wants to be able to avoid disagreements and control his opponents with a strong hand. Putin symbolizes brute force for Trump –“The will to power”, one would say at other times in history – and stop at nothing. In other words, Trump is eager to work with Putin rather than fight him.
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It became clear from the numerous that Trump is Putin's man Kremlin interference in the 2016 and 2020 election processes… and in the way Russian propagandists talk about the Republican candidate. Both have specific collaborators who are responsible for shaping and disseminating this shared discourse: for example Steve Bannonwith one foot in Moscow and the other in Washington, or Tucker Carlsonthe Trumpist journalist par excellence and, again, in love with the Russian cause.
If he comes to power, it would be logical that Trump would do the same thing he did in his previous term: Weaken NATO as much as possible. More broadly, this would mean breaking the West's unity of action, reducing support for Ukraine and likely condemning it to an unfavorable ceasefire. It is also unclear whether Trump would be willing to protect the Baltic republics (part of NATO) or Poland if Putin's imperialism was not sufficient for Ukraine's borders.
The Chinese riddle
It is also unclear what US policy would be middle East – Trump left the agreement with Iran on the supervised development of its nuclear program and ordered the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which months later would end in chaos, with Saigon airs – not even in relation to the Chinese giant. A strange circumstance occurs here: Xi Jinping and Putin brag about their friendship, but Trump can't see Xi. He is afraid of him. From 2025, China plans to activate the final phase Reunification with Taiwan. Would Trump be willing to defend Chinese nationalists or would he resign? Impossible to guess.
It seems that a world with Trump at the helm would be a world where no one is watching. A more dangerous world for Westerners. Despite his advanced age, Biden has multiplied his presence in the various hotspots of conflict: supported Zelenskyy without any breaks And mediated in Palestine, and even angered his old friend Netanyahu. He was able to understand who his allies were and stayed by their side. Trump doesn’t understand “national interests,” but rather “own interests”. Politics is often mixed with personal economic gain and, depending on the occasion, evil and good overlap.
Fortunately, exaggerated signs usually lead to nothing. Trumpism plays with this, as other populisms have played throughout history. “Basically everything stays the same,” “It’s not as bad as you make it out to be,” “The left has a thing for it”… and so on. However, what is at stake here is this liberal democracy however conservative parties understand it. There is no ideology other than “order and command.” A Biden victory would only delay the problem, that's right. But the problem is so big that it still doesn't hurt to put it off. Never in its entire history has the United States faced a dilemma of this magnitude, and it is far from clear that it has the ability to successfully resolve it.