Over the last 20 days in Ukraine we have seen an escalation of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's civilian and military infrastructure. Suffice it to say that from Christmas Eve to today, January 3, 4 and 6, there have been no Russian airstrikes.
More specifically, two massive air strikes were carried out against the capital Kiev on December 29 (the largest Russian air raid since the start of the war) and January 2 (but other oblasts were also attacked). However, on other occasions, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, Odessa, Khmelnitsky and Kirovohrad oblasts were primarily attacked, with numerous attacks by SHAHED-136 UAVs taking place even close to the front line. The last significant attack in chronological order was that of January 8, which, unlike the previous ones, used a reduced number of UAVs (8, all shot down) against a large number of missiles: 24 Kh-101 cruise missiles /555/ 55 (18 shot down, 75%), 7 S-300 in Sup-Sup mode, 4 Kh-47 KINZAL aeroballistic missiles, 8 Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, 6 ISKANDER-M ballistic missiles and 2 Kh-radiation anti-radiation missiles missiles – 31P.
The attack of December 29th (which actually began on December 28th at around 10 p.m.) and that of January 2nd (both of which have already been described in detail in RID) as well as the attack of January 8th give rise to some reflection.
First, an analysis of the attacks shows how the performance of the Ukrainian air defense deteriorates from attack to attack: just remember that the interception rate of the Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles fell to 96% from 96% on December 29th. on January 2nd to 84% and finally to 75% on January 8th. Secondly, the limitations of Ukrainian air defense against ballistic missiles, including S-300, which systematically “puncture” the Ukrainian AD “bubble” are becoming more and more obvious, with the exception of Kiev, where the SAM PATRIOT systems are based, the only ones capable of effectively intercepting such missiles.
The full article appears today in Risk&Strategy WEEKLY 1/24.
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