Import-export stagnation, the currency in free fall, looting and smuggling of all kinds: experts and investors believe that the war that broke out ten months ago in Sudan has also destroyed an economy that has been anemic for decades.
Before the war, Ahmed was a successful businessman who exported gum arabic, an acacia resin commonly used in soft drinks, confectionery and cosmetics. 70% of global production comes from Sudan.
But since the two ruling generals went to war on April 15, Ahmed has been at the mercy of her men, who are quick to ransom anyone who passes through their checkpoints.
“At the beginning of the war I had a supply of gum arabic for export in a warehouse south of Khartoum. To get him out, I had to pay enormous sums to the Rapid Support Forces, the RSF, the paramilitaries of General Mohammed Hamdane Daglo, who are fighting against the army of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane, reports Ahmed, borrowing his name because he is afraid of reprisals .
Extortion and taxes
“I still had to pay several times in the regions under their control, and then, once in an area under the control of the pro-government army, “I was asked to pay other taxes,” he adds.
In Port Sudan, the only port operating for import and export, “local authorities have again asked me for new taxes and storage fees that are six times more expensive than before,” he continues.
“That's why I can no longer export today” because there are no funds for shipping and other customs duties, complains the entrepreneur.
According to the Sudanese Ports Authority, imports and exports fell by 23% in 2023, while there was peace for four and a half months.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance recently made a decision with serious consequences for Port Sudan. The customs dollar exchange rate was revised from 650 Sudanese pounds per dollar to 950.
At nearly 1,200 pounds to the dollar, this new exchange rate is still a far cry from the black market that the central bank says is often practiced when 70% of banks in combat zones are idle.
But he has “signed off on the destruction of the Sudanese economy,” shouts al-Sadig Jalal, former head of the Sudanese Chamber of Commerce.
One of the hardest hit sectors is agriculture, which before the war accounted for nearly 40% of GDP and up to 80% of employment in rural areas, according to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).
In the fertile al-Jazeera region, fighting has already put 250,000 hectares of land out of use, reducing the 800,000 tons of wheat produced each year in Sudan by 70%.
According to the Fikra research center, only 37% of the country's agricultural land is still cultivated.
“Years of Reconstruction”
In the eyes of some experts, violence and looting marked the “de-industrialization” of Sudan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says its GDP contracted by more than 18% in 2023 due to the war, the “impact of which could be long-lasting” with “years of reconstruction.”
The country's economy, one of the poorest in the world, was already in ruins. International sanctions were imposed in Sudan under the Islamic military dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, who was overthrown in 2019 after 30 years in power.
As the latter began to unravel with the beginnings of a civilian-led democratic transition, the coup d'état by the two generals, then allied and now at war, dashed hopes of reviving the country's economy.
Under short-lived civilian rule, statistics were public and inflation reached 300%. Today the numbers are no longer clear, but the 48 million Sudanese, almost a quarter of whom have now been displaced by the violence, say they can no longer find their way. Half of them need humanitarian aid to survive.
Eighteen million are suffering from acute hunger, of which five million are in an “emergency situation”, the last stage before famine, according to the World Food Program (WFP), which says it can only help 10% of them “due to the threats”. the blocked roads, the ransom and the taxes demanded.
Faced with them, economist Haitham Fethi estimates, “the state is completely absent and that affects all sectors of the economy,” in a country where the war has displaced eight million people and caused thousands of deaths, according to UN experts .