Can we still make mayonnaise this winter? After oil and mustard, eggs are at high risk of unprecedented shortages
What are we talking about ?
The National Union of Egg Manufacturers and Professionals (Snipo) warns of what it considers a “critical” situation in the egg market that could lead to “an overall lack of availability and a risk of significant shortages”.
In other words: a lack, “both at national and at European level”.
Supply is largely inadequate with no solution to meet demand
The Snipo
These “supply bottlenecks” threaten domestic egg consumption, but also a large number of food manufacturers.
What are these tensions due to?
The bird flu epidemic is primarily responsible for the situation: “After a lull this summer, the situation has deteriorated again since the beginning of the school year, with numerous confirmed outbreaks in farms […] throughout the country on October 2,” explains the Snipo.
This situation is exceptional in France: it has never occurred on the national territory on such a scale and at this time.
The Ministry of Agriculture
Risk was upgraded from negligible to moderate in early October and farm surveillance was stepped up.
And it’s not supposed to get any better: “The new cases have accelerated in the last few days and give rise to fears of a renewed outbreak in the coming weeks and an intensification of the decline in national and European production capacities,” insist Ei’s experts.
A situation that is all the more problematic as at least thirteen European countries are affected.
The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, which usually rages especially in the fall, has been a rampage for breeders this year: it has remained active year-round, decimating wild birds before contaminating farms. . The veterinarians conjure up “an ecological disaster”: more than 10% of the poultry population had already been slaughtered before the autumn, that is 20 million poultry.
Why is the war in Ukraine aggravating the situation?
These unprecedented tensions stand in a special context: the war in Ukraine, which is not directly at issue, is putting pressure on energy prices – as in all sectors of the economy. But also on the feeding of laying hens, based on grain.
The resulting general inflation affects raw materials, packaging and even transportation.
Consequence: With strong demand and falling supply with rising costs, egg prices rise. Especially since professionals assure that they have not yet passed on the exploding energy costs…
In stores, egg consumption increased by nearly 5% between the third quarter of 2021 and the same level in 2022. Eggs remain popular as an accessible animal protein.
will it last
At best, a return to normality cannot be expected before mid-2023. And it is logical: the tensions caused by the massive slaughter of whole herds must be faced in order to bring them back to acceptable levels.
Snipo ensures that “companies in the sector remain fully mobilized to keep egg production and supply running as best as possible”.
What other products are still in tension?
Eggs join the already long list of products that are now scarce or even scarce: mustard, vegetable oils (especially sunflower) and soon rice at the end of winter – due to droughts in India, Pakistan and China.
In the case of mustard, the very poor harvest in Canada could not be compensated for by the two large producers in Ukraine and Russia. The sunflower oil market, the main exporter of which is Ukraine, has also suffered directly from the Moscow-led war.
Other products such as butter or certain biscuits are also under pressure – although there can be no talk of a shortage. Energy and packaging prices are particularly relevant.
The shortage of eggs as an ingredient is expected to put pressure on several processed products and increase their price.