This Sunday saw the start of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27), a two-week room bringing together delegates from more than 190 countries to negotiate how to slow climate change and prepare for the impacts that are already beginning. It’s going to be two weeks of technical and complicated conversations that aren’t easy to overlook. América Futura has prepared a brief guide to better navigate COP27 and understand the position Latin America is coming to these talks with.
A region historically not so much responsible for climate change
When talking about which countries are most responsible for climate change, two pieces of information need to be considered: the greenhouse gases that each region currently emits and the sum of those historical emissions. For example, in 2019, our region accounted for 10% of the total global emissions generated that year, positioning it in third place behind only East Asia (27%) and North America (12%).
However, if one looks at the historical figures, the picture changes. Since the Industrial Revolution (1850) – a moment that is considered a kind of milestone that triggered climate change caused by human activities – Latin America and the Caribbean accounted for 11% of global emissions. From this perspective, the region becomes the fourth most emitting region, behind North America (23%), Europe (16%) and East Asia (12%).
However, an important issue is that it is also a very unequal region, including in terms of its emissions. While among the 20 countries in the world that have historically contributed the most to climate change are Brazil (fourth), Argentina (14) and Mexico (15), most Central American countries and islands generate less than 0.1% of the worldwide emissions. Of course, this is related to the size of the country, its population and its economy. But it is a fact that must be taken into account when understanding the demands each delegation makes to the climate negotiations at COP27.
Latin America and the Caribbean are not negotiating as a bloc
In most international negotiations, the region negotiates collectively under the name of the Latin American and Caribbean Group (Grulac). But in the climate negotiations, the countries began to atomize. As recalled by Jimena Nieto Carrasco, who was part of the Colombian delegation that took part in the Paris Accord negotiations and is currently a member of the Accord’s Compliance Committee, “such diverse geography and positions led to the generation of new groups. Negotiating like Latin America means agreeing with the Caribbean islands, including Cuba, which are most vulnerable to climate change and need more action. But also to giants like Brazil, which had positions of not being ambitious when it came to climate action.”
While this division between the groups has allowed climate negotiations to move forward and not stall, it has also stripped the region of the power to talk about a majority. Over the years the groups have rearmed and disarmed. There are also countries that participate in more than one block. They are currently like this:
- AILAC: The countries in the region that are striving for high climate protection goals are united under the name Independent Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC). In other words, they also agree that countries in the region should be ambitious in reducing their greenhouse gases. This group includes Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru.
- SUNRISE: The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America brings together the countries of the region that are against the commercialization of nature and take this into account in the climate negotiations, as they do not bear a greater responsibility for the production of greenhouse gases if they are not ambitious in their climate goals . This group includes Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
- AOS: The Alliance of Small Island States unites small islands from around the world. They have played an important role in climate negotiations as they are highly vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion, although they are not responsible for climate change. From Latin America and the Caribbean, this group includes Cuba, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Guyana, Suriname, Bahamas, Barbados, Granada, Jamaica, Malvinas, St. Kitts and Nevis, Trinidad and Tobago . , and Haiti.
- Mexico: It is part of the Environmental Integrity Group, which consists of only six states from different parts of the world and which includes developed and developing countries: Mexico, Liechtenstein, Monaco, South Korea, Switzerland and Georgia.
- Brazil: It is part of the BASIC group. The name derives from the initials of the countries that make it up and are considered emerging markets: Brazil, South Africa, India and China.
Favorable treatment for Africa over Latin America and the Caribbean?
In the climate negotiations, there is a number called “special circumstances” that is given to certain groups of countries deemed more vulnerable to climate change, guaranteeing them more attention, so to speak. So far, this number has only been recognized for island and least developed countries. However, Nieto explains that the African continent – which, unlike Latin America and the Caribbean, negotiates as a group – has always had a desire to be under that umbrella of special circumstances. “He’s wanted it for years, but Latin American negotiators managed to block it.”
In the case of COP27, they again called for this to be an issue on the negotiating agenda, and since this conference will be held in Egypt, meaning the COP27 presidency is African, they may be more likely to allow this issue to be discussed. “It is a reality that resources for climate change are scarce,” adds Isabel Cavelier, former COP negotiator and co-founder of Colombian think tank Transforma. “So Africa has been arguing for many years that they have a particular vulnerability. But if Africa is granted the special circumstances, then only Latin America and some other middle-income countries in Asia would be excluded from a prioritization that would privilege the islands, the least developed countries and the entire African continent.” In practice, this could be result in fewer opportunities to access the international collaborative resources Latin America needs to adapt and plan for climate change.