Rome, January 28, 2024 – Maximum support for Israelmaximum pressureIran. But the expectations of Ukraine and NATO are one Isolationist Trump leaves Kyiv and Europe itself may not be the right ones given Putin's aggression.
As Alexander AldenSenior Fellow atAtlantic Councilwho previously worked on the White House National Security Council, the State Department and the Pentagon.
Is Trump destined to win the Republican nomination or is there still hope for Nikky Haley?
“Former President Donald Trump is by far the favorite candidate in the Republican primary. This is shown not only by the polls, but also by the enthusiasm of his supporters. However, nothing should be taken for granted and we will have to wait for the outcome of the South Carolina Republican primary on February 24th. The former governor of that state – Nimarata Haley – must win there to get a plausible green light for the so-called “Super Tuesday”, March 5th. Unfortunately, she has more money than votes. And most importantly, I think his positions, which are increasingly similar to those of the Democrats, are not appreciated by Republican voters in South Carolina.”
Will Biden be the Democratic nominee or is there room for a surprise?
“Although there is an incumbent president who is expected to serve in the 2024 presidential election, strangely, things are much less clear on the Democratic side. If Biden suddenly decided to withdraw his candidacy, the natural choice would be vice president. But everyone knows that Kamala Harris is politically weak and unpopular.
“Gavin Newsom is stepping out of the spotlight and increasingly traveling outside of California to gain national exposure. He is a major political talent who can reinvent himself from a progressive mayor of San Francisco and governor of California to a centrist orator.” Law and Order But one unresolved question remains: Can the Democratic Party's ideology afford it? To set aside a woman, a black and Indian woman at that, in favor of a white man? This is where the more or less imaginative hypotheses about Michelle Obama arise, which are not entirely improbable but politically implausible. The former first lady was never involved in politics. A campaign that begins on a national stage where she would have to face Trump in a televised debate is a tall order. His candidacy doesn't seem like a good idea to me.
What would a Trump presidency mean for Europe in particular? The end of support for Ukraine and the withdrawal or at least a withdrawal from NATO?
“The irony may be that Trump is fulfilling the promise NATO allies made to Obama at the 2014 Wales Summit: to spend 2% of national GDP on defense by 2024. Since this goal has not been achieved, Trump could criticize the credibility of the allies' word at the Wales summit and their failure to abide by the constraints of Article 3 of the founding treaty of NATO, which in his argument the constraints of Art. 5 conditions. However, this does not mean that they will withdraw from NATO – the opposite! The logic of Trump's threat of abandonment is precisely to increase the promised contribution of allies and to ensure that the alliance does not become an insolvent structure, but a real solidarity force capable of confronting threats to collective security. Let us recall that the first lethal aid to Ukraine – that is, the supply of weapons – was provided by the Trump administration. The former president is a man who believes in negotiating, but negotiating from a position of strength. If Putin thought that negotiating the war in Ukraine might be easier with Trump, he could be wrong.”
Speaking of Ukraine: Will Putin wait for the American elections to start peace talks?
“Putin's temptation to wait until after the American elections to negotiate may seem logical. But it could be a misjudgment.
There are rumors that Biden could present a proposal in the summer…
“There are some weak signs, some signals that suggest that the Biden administration and allies are trying to find a diplomatic but also just solution to the war in Ukraine. The NATO summit in Washington on the 75th anniversary of the alliance, an event that will be at the center of the American presidential election, could be an end point or a new departure. Obviously, any possible solution requires a credible and available partner. And according to many observers, Putin is not. ”
Would a Trump presidency be more or less hostile toward China? And would you confirm the “pivot to Asia”?
“A new Trump presidency would focus heavily on strategic competition with China, not only from the perspective of Indo-Pacific defense, but particularly in the geoeconomic and technological domains.”
What awaits the Middle East? Would support for Israel still be widespread and hostility toward Iran harder with Trump?
“A new Trump administration would significantly increase support for Israel and the strategy would be maximum pressure against Iran.”