According to AI experts, there is a universe where this new technology will solve all our problems and another where it will end the existence of the human species.
Throughout 2023, we have seen speculation oscillate between these two scenarios, and there is little doubt that this path will continue in 2024. After all, it's been almost a decade since “stars” like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking spoke about how “artificial intelligence could wipe out humanity.” So the whole question is whether we are really any closer today.
In a paper published last April, computer scientists Scott Aaronson and Boaz Barak of the University of Texas and Harvard University narrowed down the futuristic scenarios to just five – and one was the classic dystopia in which humanity has no place has more, then a different The scenario was one in which AI progress was… content to stagnate.
“This is indeed a possibility that we perhaps don’t talk about often enough,” New Scientist summarized in December. “The advance of AI could be halted by its insatiable demand for resources.” One could imagine, for example, that the amount of electricity and water needed to run and cool the computer servers it needs “could lead to a moratorium on the “Development” of AI leads. Or, “We could run out of data to train future models,” which would mean the technology would never reach the level needed to deliver on all its promises.
Between the scenario of destruction and that of stagnation, the scenario of utopia remains. This is Barak and Aaronson's “Futurama” scenario, in which tomorrow's civilization will be significantly different from ours, but in a good way. “AI is being used to reduce poverty and ensure that more of humanity has access to food, healthcare, education and economic opportunities. There may be problems caused by human misdeeds or neglect, but people on this planet would be happier overall.” By the end of 2024 we may see it more clearly…