China risks paying “high reputational costs” if it decides to help Russia in its war against Ukraine, one political analyst said.
Even if China were willing to help Russia—financially or economically—its ability to do so is very limited, said Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute for China and the US.
“Most of the positions of Russia and China in the international financial system remain in US dollars, and not in rubles and Chinese currency in yuan. [China] will pay a fairly high reputational cost for this,” he said on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Tuesday.
On Monday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held an “intense” seven-hour meeting with China’s top foreign policy adviser Yang Jiechi in Rome.
At the meeting, Sullivan told Chinese officials that the US was concerned that Beijing might try to help Russia ease global sanctions. The trip comes amid reports that Moscow has asked China to help provide military equipment for its invasion of Ukraine, including surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles and drones.
Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Victory military parade marking the 74th anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War.
Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Monday denied such reports of the Russian request and called them malicious “disinformation.”
“The top priority at the moment for all parties is to exercise restraint, cool down the situation instead of adding fuel to the fire, and work towards a diplomatic settlement rather than further escalation of the situation,” Zhao said at a regular briefing in Beijing.
Russia “rogue state”
According to Daley, the United States, along with Ukraine and Western allies, “already won the information war” against Russia.
“Valdimir Putin … is a bad guy in the eyes of the whole world,” and Moscow is fast becoming a “rogue state,” he said. China needs to “ask itself the question of whether it wants to be on the right side,” Daly added.
“China said on February 4 that it supports Russia. But Russia, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran – this is not quite the international club that most Chinese want to get into. And circumstances are pushing China even further in that direction. So there is a reputational risk,” he said.
The most shocking development would be China’s agreement to provide Russia with military equipment or even lethal weapons…
Given the current lack of evidence that China actually provided military assistance to Russia, this question is likely to raise further questions, said Yun Sun, senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at Stimson University. Centre.
“There is very little information about what we are actually talking about in terms of military aid,” she told CNBC on Tuesday. “There is also the question of whether Beijing really provided this assistance or whether Beijing simply expressed its willingness to provide some kind of military support,” she added.
China’s role could tip the balance
However, political observers believe that a move by China to provide some form of military or economic assistance to Russia could be a game-changer with far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
Eurasia Group’s political risk consultant said on Monday that it “remains of the view – with only moderate conviction – that China is unlikely to directly facilitate a Russian invasion to this extent, as it tries to demonstrate neutrality in the conflict.”
One of the key things to look out for in the coming days is whether China will honor Russia’s request for help during an invasion of Ukraine, analysts said in a note.
“The most shocking development would be China’s agreement to provide Russia with military equipment or even deadly weapons, which would mean that for the first time Beijing has actively sided with Moscow in a conflict,” they said.
“This development will soon trigger US and EU sanctions and lead to a long-term geopolitical rift between China and the West, including pressure for a larger economic decoupling.”