The think tank European Council on Foreign Relations predicts a significant increase in seats for the far-right parties next June, especially for the “Identity and Democracy” group, in which the RN is represented.
A “sharp right turn”. With less than five months until the European elections (June 6-9, 2024), the trends are becoming increasingly clear. In a comprehensive forecast study published on Thursday, January 24th, the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) predicts a spectacular breakthrough by nationalist right-wing parties in the various member states of the European Union. This progress will logically be accompanied by a loss of seats for progressive and centrist groups, which currently form the majority in the European Parliament.
The two authors of this study collected the most recent opinion polls in each EU member state and used a statistical model of the performance of national parties in recent years. This model predicts the share of votes each national party will win in the 2024 European Parliament elections and calculates how many seats they are expected to win.
The “Identity and Democracy” group, third force in parliament?
This means that next June the right-wing nationalist parties from nine member states could come out on top: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Slovakia. They could also come second or third in nine other countries: Germany, Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Spain, Latvia, Portugal, Romania and Sweden. The right-wing radical group Identity and Democracy (ID), to which the National Rally also belongs, could increase from 58 to 98 seats and establish itself as the third force in parliament.
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Conversely, the three main centrist groups of the European People's Party (EPP), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Renew (RE), could continue their decline, having lost seats in the last two elections. These three parties currently represent 420 of 705 MPs. After the elections the number could drop to 390. According to ECFR, the EPP would limit the damage with five fewer seats. The S&D would lose 10 seats while Renew would have to lose 15 seats.
The current composition of the European Parliament. ECFR The possible composition after the elections. ECFR
At the same time, the Greens would also lose seats (currently 61 to 71), but the Left Party would gain some, from 38 to 44. On the right, the European Conservatives and Reformists group could gain 18 MPs (85 to 71). 67 ) and the number of unregistered people would decrease (from 51 to 42). These forecasts reflect long-term declines in support for mainstream parties and growing support for extremist parties.
Changes in the balance of coalitions
Ultimately, the “super coalition” (EPP, S&D, RE) would only have 54% of the seats, compared to the current 60%. Given the traditionally average electoral cohesion within the various political groups in the European Parliament, it could sometimes be difficult for these parties to find a majority. Potential left-wing coalitions would also lose value in contrast to potential right-wing coalitions. Of course, these forecasts contain a certain degree of uncertainty, linked to the relative reliability of opinion polls, but also to the indecision of some elected representatives about which factions they will join.
According to ECFR, this paradigm shift could have several consequences for the EU's political agenda. For example, if the new composition of Parliament does not initially affect aid to Ukraine, the fact that the centrist grand coalition is likely to be less dominant than before could have an impact on certain issues, such as economic and fiscal freedom the environment or immigration and asylum policy.