Jair Bolsonaro (Portal)
It is the first poll to be released following the surprising results of the first round Dispute about the collected data from demographic companies so far from reality. To the ipecwhose polls were commissioned by the powerful communications group Globo, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would have 51% intending to vote against 43% by Jair Messiah Bolsonaro. If you count the valid votes, Lula would have it 55% against him Four five% of the President.
This poll is very similar to the one on Saturday night, A few hours before the polling stations openas the main national media announced the last two election polls in excitement and pomp.
No one could have imagined that pollsters would go from fame to hell so quickly. Datafolha, one of the best-known polling companies owned by the same group that owns Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paulo, named Lula the front-runner on Saturday fifty% of votes before Bolsonaro, who was in 36%a difference of 14 points in line with their polls from the past few weeks.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Portal/Carla Carniel)
That ipec He had even given the former president the winner at 51%, compared to 37% for Bolsonaro. But even 24 hours later, those numbers didn’t contradict reality: Lula found himself in a close neck-and-neck race that ended with 48.43% for him and 43.2% for the president, a difference of just 43 .2% 5 percentage points. It is about one political earthquake not anticipated by analysts who instead focused to the end on the risk that a sharp escalation of violence triggered by a possible accusation of fraud choice by Bolsonaro.
For example, in the last few hours, Attorney General Anderson Torres has announced that instead of the January 6-style attack on the institutional buildings in the USA, the federal police will launch investigations into the research institutes. “Nothing beats a police investigation to determine whether some of these institutions are a crime or collusive‘ the minister said at a press conference.
Brazilians wait for a vote in Curitiba (Portal/Rodolfo Buhrer)
22 MPs have also signed a petition to the Senate Opening of a parliamentary commission of inquiry into this issue. A minimum of 27 signatures are required for the application to be accepted. The bill was introduced by the Senator Marcos do Valfrom the centre-right party allowed to. In the past few days, the Minister of Communications, Fábio Faria, described as “not polite‘ the mistakes of pollsters and urged Bolsonaro’s voters They will boycott the questions by not answering them.
“The publication of polls as a weapon of vote-rigging should be banned. We will not allow institutes to do harm. I ask everyone not to answer their questions,” he said on social media. On Sunday, when he left the electoral college in which he had voted, Bolsonaro himself reiterated that “the Datapovo”, i.e. the will of the people, counts and played with the name of the polling institute Datafolha.
Lula fighters after the results were disseminated (Portal/Diego Vara)
When the results came out, his first statement was “we won the lie’ and then attacked the voting institutes directly. “I think that this time they were discredited,” he told the journalists present, “all of which served to bring votes to the other side.” In Brazil, the law allows polls to be published up until the day before the vote. In other countries, such as Italy or Argentina, elections are banned weeks or days before the elections to avoid any possibility of interference, and the polling institutes do not belong to media-related groups, as is the case in Brazil Datafolha.
The directors of the institutes now involved in the dispute have tried to explain this surprising discrepancy between your data and the end result, sometimes even giving the impression of excuses. “In our opinion, voters made a strategic decision to anticipate a possible second ballot and prevent the election from ending on the first,” Márcia Cavallari, director of Ipec, told Globo TV.
A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro after the elections (Portal / Adriano Machado)
The director of DatafolhaLuciana Chong also suggested a similar explanation. “We saw that in the poll on Saturday 13% of voters said they could change their mind about voting. Among Ciro’s voters was this rate 41% and among those of Simone Tebet the 37%. In the end, the useful vote was not in favor of Lula, but in favor of Bolsonaro,” Chong said.
It was about that helpful voice that Lula had pushed hard in his first-round campaign, provoking the candidate’s ire Cyrus Gomes, the Labor Democratic Party, which suggested the possibility of a third route to Lula/Bolsonaro polarization. “I feel like a victim of annihilation,” Gomes had said, “there is no respect, there is no shame, they really are Nazis,” the PT said. “Voters are disoriented by hate,” he added, but they must vote “against communism and against fascism.” On Tuesday, Gomes quietly retired and He accepted without controversy his party’s decision to endorse Lula for the second round.
The cover of a newspaper shows Sunday’s results (Portal / Pilar Olivares)
Hence the unknown role of the ballot box second Lap of the elections, which will lead to the decisive vote on October 30th. Beyond the declarations of the demographic company managers, it is very likely that the quality of the surveys is affected by the use of outdated databases. The last census in Brazil dates from 2010, which was planned for 2020 was canceled due to the Covid epidemic. After all, both the polls and Lula’s campaign strategists paid little attention to the fact that the number of Pentecostal Evangelicals – over which one of the main battles is now being fought to oust the crucial votes from Bolsonaro to Lula – has most likely increased compared to those declared at the last census when they were 42.275.440.
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