Finns went to the polls in the first round of presidential elections and the first national vote since Helsinki's historic entry into NATO, for a post whose importance has increased amid rising tensions with Russia, a neighbor with which they have become deeply uneasy has The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. And the almost final result that arrived in the evening – thanks in part to early voting – saw former conservative Prime Minister Alexander Stubb take first place with 27% of the vote, ahead of the former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto from the Greens with 25%. The two are the favorites in the polls, moving closer to the runoff scheduled for February 11, while the far-right True Finns Party candidate Jussi Halla-aho is out of the race despite having polled 19% is far from undermining the candidate green and trying to get to the second round. For whoever wins in two weeks, the changing geopolitical landscape in Europe will certainly be the main concern. Because although his powers are limited, the president – who also serves as commander in chief of the armed forces – directs foreign policy in collaboration with the government. A key task given the deteriorating relations between Moscow and Helsinki: The war in Ukraine forced Finland to abandon decades of military non-alignment and join NATO in April 2023, with Russia immediately threatening “countermeasures”.
And the diplomatic crisis extends along the 1,340-kilometer border between the two countries, where Finland recorded a surge in irregular migrant arrivals last summer. Faced with this influx, Helsinki accused Moscow of using foreigners in a “hybrid attack” on the country and ordered the closure of its eastern border in November. “We are in a situation where Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular are using people as weapons,” Stubb said during the final televised debate on Thursday, emphasizing the need to “put the country’s security first.” According to its main rival Haavisto, Finland needs to “send a very clear message to Russia that things cannot continue like this.” Statements that are a far cry from those when Helsinki maintained good relations with Moscow in the post-Cold War era. But also more recently, when current President Sauli Niinisto – who is leaving after two six-year terms – boasted of his close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin before becoming one of his harshest critics. All presidential candidates support both Finland's independence and its new role as a member of NATO. And for similar positions, elections will focus more on the candidates' personalities, according to Tuomas Forsberg, a professor of foreign policy at the University of Tampere. “It will be more about an individual’s choice, their credibility,” he said. Although they share similar political views, Haavisto and Stubb represent different backgrounds, Forsberg noted. And in the second round of voting between the two, the election debates could be decisive.
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