The New Hampshire primary has already begun. At midnight Monday through Tuesday (six a.m. on the Spanish mainland), Dixville Notch voters were the first to vote, honoring a tradition that gives the town 15 minutes of fame every four years. They have been doing so since 1960, but today only six residents (four Republicans and two independents) live in this rural and remote town in the north of the state, near the Canadian border. When Dixville Notch was at its most populated, it was tempting to analyze the result as an indication of what would happen later in the day. Now it's of little use, even though Nikki Haley won the six votes and celebrated. The key to the day, which lasts all day Tuesday (until the early hours of this Wednesday, mainland Spain time), lies elsewhere. Turnout, mostly from independents, is one of them, particularly to decide whether Republican favorite Donald Trump eliminates candidate Nikki Haley or the fight is extended. But there are other aspects to pay attention to.
1. Participation
Snow and temperatures below 20 degrees led to low turnout at the Iowa caucuses last week. Only 110,000 voters came to meetings, which also require more commitment and motivation. “Iowa didn’t do a good job. Voter turnout was very, very low,” New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu said recently. Both he and Secretary of State David Scanlan are predicting a large mobilization in this Tuesday's primary that could exceed 320,000 voters, or 60% of the census, compared to the 18% that turned out in Iowa.
“The whole country is looking at New Hampshire,” Sununu said this Monday at Haley’s final campaign event. This state's primary election is semi-open. Voters registered as Republicans can only vote in Republican primaries, and Democrats can only vote in their primaries. However, independents, as those who are not registered with any party, can also get involved in one party or the other. Polls suggest Haley has the advantage in that group, which makes up nearly 40% of respondents, while Trump clearly dominates among Republican supporters. How much we mobilize each other will be very important in the final result. In New Hampshire, some movement toward independence among registered Democratic voters was noted, although small. In every state you can change party as long as the deadlines are adhered to.
2. DeSantis' legacy
Ron DeSantis' withdrawal marked the final stretch of the New Hampshire primary campaign. By throwing in the towel before the vote, he leaves with the honor of having finished at least second in Iowa, although his withdrawal at the first opportunity is quite humiliating. In his surrender message, the Florida governor asked for support for Trump and disqualified Haley. According to the polls, DeSantis only had a 6% to 8% voter approval rating in New Hampshire, but if his supporters listened to him, the effect would be devastating for Haley and give Trump another landslide victory, as he did in Iowa. Polls don't make it so clear that the transfer of the legacy from DeSantis to Trump will be so clean.
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3. The Trump-Haley difference
DeSantis' turnout and orphan vote distribution could make the difference in the outcome of the primary. Recent polls suggest a 15 to 20 point difference in favor of Trump. These are obviously the key data of the test. For Trump, the victory this Tuesday means almost as much as the confirmation of his quick nomination, although only 11 delegates will be awarded in New Hampshire. Every candidate who has won the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in the last half century has claimed ultimate victory in the primaries, and Trump has the dominance of an incumbent president.
New Hampshire is the state where Haley has the best prospects. It enjoys the support of the governor, can attract the support of independent voters, and is generally a more moderate state than average. Even the candidate's initials are identical to those of the state, allowing for effective poster designs. If Nikki Haley doesn't win New Hampshire, where will she win? If you don't lose narrowly here, where can you do better? That is the question that will hang in the air if the result is what the polls predict. On the other hand, if the candidate surprises, another question arises: Can her rise be repeated in other states?
Nikki Haley, at a campaign rally in Salem, New Hampshire, on Monday. BRIAN SNYDER (Portal)
4. One president missing and another unknown
In Iowa, there were only Republican caucuses votes. In New Hampshire, however, both Republicans and Democrats vote. However, due to a dispute over the primary calendar, the Democratic Party will not award delegates to the winners in the state. This dispute also explains why President Joe Biden did not register on time, his name does not appear on the ballot and he did not campaign. Citizens can vote for him by handwriting their name in a designated space on the ballot paper, but this not only complicates voting but also counting. In addition to the campaign to vote for Biden by hand, there is another that needs to be written in this gap in reference to the Gaza war: “ceasefire.” Obviously these votes would be zero. There are 21 candidates on the Democratic ballot, including Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota; self-help author Marianne Williamson; the comedian Vermin Supreme, an eccentric activist known for wearing a rubber boot on his head as a hat, and an unknown president, not by office but by name: President R. Boddie. None of them have a chance.
5. The way forward
Donald Trump recalled this Monday that the Republican primary race had started with more than a dozen candidates and only two remained. “And I think one person will probably leave tomorrow,” he stressed, referring to a possible withdrawal by Haley. Whether the former UN ambassador and former South Carolina governor throws in the towel will largely depend on the outcome. What lies ahead is not easy. In the Republican case, the next tier is Nevada, but that's a bit confusing. There will be primaries (voting at the polls at a set time, like a traditional election) on February 6th, and caucuses (more informal gatherings of citizens at which they vote for their candidates) two days later. Until 2020 there were only caucuses, but this year the caucuses and exams were chaotic and the Democratic-held state legislature agreed to introduce primaries in 2024. However, the Republican Party rebelled and not only continued to hold caucuses but also left delegates too dependent on them. Haley is participating in the primary election but is not participating in the caucuses. And with Trump, who will receive the delegates, the opposite happens: he is in the caucuses, but not on the ballot papers.
If there is still a fight after Nevada, the February 24 primary will be in South Carolina, Haley's home state but where the former president has solid support and is the clear favorite. The Democrats, on the other hand, will vote in South Carolina on February 3rd. Biden pushed to move up the Democratic primary in the state where his campaign began four years ago, arguing that it is more diverse and better represents the United States.
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