Forecast: Trump wins in Iowa, first test in the Republican Party caucuses, says agency

Photo: Portal/Brian Snyder

The former president Donald Trump AP has won the Republican Party's first nomination test in the race for the White House, AP predicted. The internal dispute between the primary candidates began this Monday, the 15th, with the Iowa Caucus.

The agency's forecast was released about 30 minutes after the start of the conventions and is based on preliminary results from eight counties, including rural areas, whose demographic and political representation is similar to regions where the results have not yet been released. This data was combined with a survey carried out this Monday among the party's voters. According to the AP, the former president has an insurmountable advantage in both cases.

With Trump's victory predicted, attention turned to second place, which is still undetermined. This was seen as the first test by the governor of Florida. Ron DeSantisand former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley, which appear to be virtually undecided with less than 12% of the Republican vote in the average poll. Both want to strengthen themselves before the next caucus on January 23rd in New Hampshire.

Donald Trump's quick victory prediction was criticized by representatives of the Florida governor's campaign team. On social media, Andrew Romeo, Ron DeSantis' communications director, spoke of “election interference.” However, predictions are common in the United States, where results are usually announced by the press before they are officially announced. DeSantis has not yet commented on the employee's allegations.

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The Republican primary also features several candidates with low voting intentions, including businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.

Since this is the first dispute in the country, Iowa often has the power to influence the future of the primaries as it provides a boost to the winners. The state has another peculiarity: the voting format. Voters break into small groups to listen to campaign representatives speak, fill out ballots and, if they wish, watch the vote count. This is a type of caucus that is different from primaries held in other states, in which voters only have to go to the polls and cast their votes.

This time the caucus was also marked by snowstorms that hit Iowa. The roads were covered in ice and in some regions the temperature was 42°C.

This was the first time Trump faced voters since his failed reelection bid in 2020, when he lost to Democrat Joe Biden. The former president is well ahead in the polls but is dealing with a series of lawsuits and has to split time between the courts and the election campaign.

He is scheduled to appear in court in New York on Tuesday, where the jury will discuss whether the former president should pay the journalist additional compensation. E. Jean Carroll, who won a civil lawsuit against Trump last year for rape and defamation. The Republican leader has already been fined $5 million.

The Democrats of Iowa will hold election meetings and vote by post until March. But that process is all but set as Biden seeks a second term.

Biden, whose campaign announced this Monday that it had raised more than 97 million dollars (472 million reais) in the fourth quarter of 2023 and now has a record amount of 117 million dollars (570 million reais), has no major competitors. He is competing for the candidacy with writer Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips./With AP and AFP