Montreal could beat its “all-time high temperature record” for the month of November on Saturday, while Quebec has been experiencing an exceptionally hot period since late October.
• Also read: New heat records in Quebec
“We will be 10 to 15°C above the seasonal normal from Friday,” explains André Monette, head of MétéoMédia’s meteorological service. Normal temperatures in early November in southern Quebec are around 9°C during the day and 1°C at night, and in the center of the province between 7°C during the day and -1°C at night.
However, according to forecasts from Environment Canada and MétéoMédia, temperatures are expected to fluctuate between 17 and 23°C between Thursday and Sunday. The mercury could even rise to 23C in Montreal on Saturday.
“There is a possibility of breaking the historic heat record for the month of November,” said Jean-Philippe Bégin, meteorologist at Environment Canada. We had reached 22.4°C in 2020, the maximum ever recorded.”
Several other heat records “are in danger of being broken across Quebec, particularly Friday through Sunday,” MétéoMédia adds.
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Exceptional heat
After almost summery temperatures at the end of October, the province experienced a new mild phase at the beginning of November.
“It’s an exceptional sequence, but without being unique,” specifies André Monette. In 2020, from November 5th to 11th, southern Quebec had experienced temperatures between 18 and 22°C.
For Jean-Philippe Bégin, these two consecutive hot spells in October and November could potentially represent a historic event.
“Starting next week, climatologists will analyze the data to find out whether there is a comparable past,” explains the meteorologist. We will then know whether it is outrageous or not.
Warm south winds
The well above seasonal temperatures may have a scientific explanation, experts say.
“In the next few days, the east of the continent will have a strong ridge that will bring a heatwave out of the Gulf of Mexico,” Monette said. We had the same phenomenon from October 21st to 26th, which is repeated in November.
“Jean-Philippe Bégin confirms that we have blasts of cold air to the west that create a deformation of the jet stream. The jet stream rises in the east of the continent, meaning the mild temperatures of the United States take over all of Quebec’s space.
However, when they agree to recognize the unusual nature of current temperatures, experts believe it is too early to link them to global warming.
“Part of this could be due to climate change,” Mr. Bégin admits. In order to identify a trend, however, it would have to be shown that these phenomena occur more frequently.