The question is not new, and even less its answer. As the months have passed and after the climatic fanfare of “hellish heat” in both Europe and the United States that has been touted by the media in 2022, the fact is that the Northern Hemisphere is now in the winter of 20222023 Europe in particular being hampered by energy supply crises. So the specter of not having enough heating in homes to get through the winter is beginning to hover over European countries that seem less benevolent to “global warming”.
Which causes more deaths, high or low temperatures? If we consider humans as a thermal machine, we will find that their work output is not very high precisely because our system expends a lot of energy to keep its internal temperature around 36.5°C. Biometeorology, a branch of meteorology that studies the interactions of living things with the atmosphere, shows us that we are much better prepared to live in conditions with high temperature values than low ones, in other words, the human machine survives much better in the heat than in the cold.
It’s also worth noting here that the IPCC (the climate panel) and other alarmists are alluding to the average global air temperature and its Gaussian curve (Fig. 1), something that has no logical or pragmatic basis, precisely because we don’t live in that utopian one static global average temperature, but in daily variations which can range from 10.0 ºC to 40.0 ºC depending on geographical location, dynamic atmospheric conditions, time of year and many other aspects.
In this respect, the hypothesis that the cold would cause more deaths than higher temperatures sounds plausible. Any analysis of statistics will show this fact. Let’s look at the data according to the article published in July 2021 by The Lancet Planetary Health (Vol.5 Ed.7) in which Dr. Zhao and others brought the collected records from 2000 to 2019 (this period, if I can recall, was dubbed by the alarmist wing as “the hottest since time immemorial”!). Although the work is supposed to start with modeling, which always raises suspicions, the initialization database is real. Let’s see the results of the work in these terms:
1.1. About 4,592,644 deaths were related to the common cold (8.52% [6,19 a 10,47]); and
1.2. Approximately 490,529 deaths were related to severe heat (0.91% [0,56 a 1,36]);
2.1. About 2,617,322 (51.49%) occurred in Asia, primarily due to the cold;
2.2. Eastern Europe had the highest heatrelated death rate;
2.3. SubSaharan Africa had the highest death rate related to excessive cold;
3.1. The global excess coldrelated mortality rate changed by 0.51 percentage points (95% [−0,61 a −0,42]) reduction in mortality, ie 283,000 fewer deaths, allegedly due to high temperatures;
3.2. The global rate of excess deaths related to high temperatures rose 0.21 percentage points (0.13 to 0.31), resulting in 116,000 more deaths;
3.3. The bottom line there was a Net reduction in deathswith the largest decrease in mortality in the Southeast Asia region, while there were fluctuations in South Asia and Europe as a whole.
After summarizing, we can make some very relevant comments on the data. Research has made several more evaluations, but the core of the issue is already evident. As Bjorn Lomborg (author of The Skeptical Environmentalist and moderate climate change critic) has well written, the stark truth is that the information listed in point (1) indicates that the cold was caused eight times more deaths than situations of extreme heat, precisely because the human body is much less tolerant of these conditions.
In the geographic distribution, item (2.1) and (2.3) showed that most of the deaths occurred in regions with low resources, since they are very cold areas of Asia and African regions, south of the desert on the periphery and also very cold have nights . In both regions, access to energy sources is scarce and there is nothing to turn to except perhaps firewood or animal dung. For excess heatrelated deaths in item (2.2), Eastern Europe stands out from other regions, but the deaths are still lower compared to coldrelated deaths. These cases usually concern that part of the population that lacks the financial means to solve problems in their own country (with equipment) or involve older people, a very relevant point if we assess the problem from another perspective the the age of the population.
When considering the issues related to point (3), we cannot help but consider that over the period studied, the number of older people has increased, as the demographic pyramid indicates an aging population. In general, the highest number of deaths events meteorological of high temperatures involves special care (and not “global warming” or the false issue of “climate change”). Because the human body functions better at higher temperatures than at low temperatures, death from extreme heat is avoided by keeping people hydrated, especially the elderly population who simply forget or don’t feel the constant need for hydration. These are also consolidated facts reported by governments, media, etc. In particular at item (3.2), where a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points was reported for excessive heat deaths, it should be recalled that within the fouryear period 20162019 the The 21st Super El Niño had a hightemperature milestone that likely caused some telelink effects through various regional climates around the world. Indeed, this is a major natural oceanicatmospheric phenomenon that can alter weather patterns on more than a third of the world.
In this first part, we conclude that the predominant cause of death that occurs every year in the world due to insufficient temperatures is related to low temperatures, especially in the northern hemisphere. This problem significantly affects a part of the most vulnerable populations, which have effective means of protection against the cold, excluded from a package that includes energy and simple and cheap technologies for immediate use. Next we will see how access to energy is a fundamental part of the process of solving this problem. It will also become clear what are the cheapest and most efficient forms of energy that can help in this task and we will see what the alarmists think of this whole situation, even if reality contradicts the proposed discourse. Surprises will be shocking in terms of deviation from the vision of this same reality.