North Korean leader Kim Jongun declared the South his “main enemy,” dissolved the peninsula's cooperation and reunification authorities and threatened to start war if they violated “even 0.001 millimeters” of its territory.
But will Kim put this aggressive rhetoric into action? Analysts consulted by AFP assess the situation.
What happened?
After years of deteriorating relations, Pyongyang this week declared Seoul its main enemy, shut down agencies working on cooperation and possible Korean reunification and threatened to invade the South during a war.
It is an important change because “in the past, when there was a threat of armed conflict, there was a support (communication) channel to keep it under control.” “There is no such thing now,” said Hong Min, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Reunification in Seoul.
Pyongyang has “abolished all interKorean mechanisms to prevent conflicts from spiraling out of control,” he added.
“Designating the South as the North's 'main enemy' is not just rhetoric: words can lead to actions,” he warned.
Will it attack South Korea?
Kim has said he has no intention of starting a war, but he also has no intention of avoiding it. He declared that he no longer recognized the “de facto” maritime border between the two Koreas, and his army conducted exercises with real artillery fire in the area for several days.
This creates “an increasing possibility that both sides will become involved in a military conflict, which could lead to a broader conflict,” Hong added.
In addition, Pyongyang approached Moscow and, according to Washington and Seoul, provided it with missiles for the war in Ukraine in exchange for help with its satellite program.
South Korea has threatened to respond “much harsher” to any provocation, a tough stance that also carries risks.
“It is never wise for South Korea or North Korea to pursue a radical strategy on interKorean issues,” the Hankyoreh newspaper said in an editorial note.
“If North Korea becomes more reckless, we hope the government will focus its efforts on dealing with the situation,” the South Korean newspaper added.
What's next?
The two countries are now “most engaged in armed conflict,” said Choi Giil, a professor of military studies at Sangji University.
“Assuming there would be civilian and military casualties in a future provocation by the North. We attack the starting point with missiles. “But will we also attack them with our air force?” he asked.
When Pyongyang bombed a remote border island in Yeonpyeong in 2010, killing four people, Seoul's F16 fighter jets were “in the air and ready to attack, but thenPresident Lee Myungbak called off the attack” to prevent escalation .
“If we have a similar incident, there is no guarantee that air force will not be used in the face of these warmongering calls,” he added.
And the North's response could lead to “in the worst case scenario, an allout war” on the peninsula.
Possibility of rapprochement?
The prospects for Korean reconciliation have always been bleak, but have become even worse after Kim declared Seoul his greatest enemy, said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst who now works at LMI Consulting.
“He not only closed the door to the rapprochement, but also padlocked it to make it clear to South Koreans where their relationship stands,” he told AFP.
But this new rhetoric “doesn’t necessarily change North Korea’s calculations,” he added.
Pyongyang has been developing missiles and nuclear weapons for some time, and Kim is waiting for the right time to conduct a seventh nuclear test.
“These weapons do not develop overnight, and the Kim regime's plans to use them as a coercive, threatening and negotiating tool have been its 'modus operandi' for decades,” he argued.
Why is Kim acting like this?
The new rhetoric toward Seoul “seems to be an ideological adjustment for regime survival, justifying Kim's focus on nuclear missiles,” said LeifEric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
North Koreans “are increasingly aware of their country's economic failures compared to South Korea's successes,” he said. “Therefore, Kim is doubling down on his military capabilities in the face of external threats to his internal legitimacy,” he added.
In addition, South Korea will hold general elections in April, with current President Yoon Suk Yeol's party attempting to regain control of the legislature.
“Perhaps Kim is trying to punish the Yoon government for its policies toward Pyongyang ahead of April's general election,” Easley said.