Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far-right and candidate to replace Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace, wants June's European elections to be a referendum on immigration. He believes he has the wind in his favor as parties more or less similar to his own, the National Regrouping, are on the rise across the continent. Also keep in mind that…
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Marine Le Pen, leader of the French far-right and candidate to replace Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee Palace, wants June's European elections to be a referendum on immigration. He believes he has the wind in his favor as parties more or less similar to his own, the National Regrouping, are on the rise across the continent. He also believes that at a time of global crises and a sense of insecurity among parts of the population, the European Parliament elections are an opportunity for those who defend closed borders, as well as for nationalist and eurosceptic parties.
“There are phases in politics in which great shocks occur, which herald the end of an era, of a system,” said Le Pen this Sunday at a large rally in Marseille to kick off the election campaign of Jordan Bardella, his right-hand man and number one the RN list. At 28, the candidate and president of the RN is one of the prodigies of French politics – the other is Gabriel Attal, who at 34 is the youngest prime minister of the Fifth Republic after being appointed in January by President Macron―. “It is obvious,” Bardella added in his speech, “that [estas elecciones] “They represent a referendum against the infiltration of migration.”
For Le Pen, the European elections, which will take place between June 6th and 9th, are a prelude to the French presidential elections in 2027. She is convinced that a good result will represent a further step in the long process of normalization of the RN and will consolidate it as only alternative to Macron's successor in government, who cannot run again after two five-year terms in office.
According to Bardella, among the thousands who attended the rally were 8,000; The pavilion was full – lots of young people, lots of national flags. “Marine, Marine!” they shouted. “Jordan, Jordan!” They danced, drank beer, sang La Marseillaise. “This is the only party that is close to the people,” said Marjorie Davidaud, 23 years old and a member since she was 15. “What unites us is the love of France and the preservation of our traditions.” France has a thousand-year history, not just 60 like Europe,” added 18-year-old Théo Marquez.
The far right feels stronger than ever. Euphoric. What attracted the most attention this Sunday in Marseille – a left-wing city in a region with strong Lepenist roots – was joy. No trace of the anger associated with the extreme right or the bad mood of the French. As if after so many years, so many defeats, so many feelings of stigmatization, so many rumors that they were right-wing extremists and a threat to democracy, they were finally a normal party. For millions of French people they already are.
The RN is the undisputed favorite for the European Championships in June. If they were held today, Bardella's list would receive 29% of the vote, according to the latest poll by the Ifop Institute. The Macronist list, led by MEP Valérie Hayer, would gain 19%. The Macronists' strategy to avert electoral disaster is to denounce the RN as incompetent and incoherent and to recall its ties to Russia.
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“After the European elections, there will no longer be a need to make projections for the presidential elections,” says Jean-Yves Camus, co-director of the Observatory of Political Radicalities at the Jean Jaurès Foundation, by telephone. Camus recalls that the European elections have historically represented a favorable form of control for the RN, as well as for the Front National, founded by Marine Le Pen's father Jean-Marie. In France they have a comparable function to the midterm elections in the USA: they enable those in power to be sanctioned. Le Pen Sr.'s first electoral success was precisely the European elections of 1984, in which the FN achieved 11%. The daughter's RN has been the party with the most votes in France in the European elections since 2014.
The 2024 European elections could represent the culmination for the RN of a phase that began in 2022, when Marine Le Pen qualified for the second round of presidential elections for the second time, receiving more than 13 million votes, 42%. In the parliamentary elections, 88 Lepenist MPs were elected, forming the first opposition group to Macron. In addition, they followed strict discipline to avoid outbursts and give the impression of seriousness.
With every crisis they move forward. The movement against pension reform? Like the left, they were against it, but avoided joining the parliamentary clamor and taking to the streets. The unrest in the banlieue? They served to confirm their predictions about the fracturing of France and the dangers of immigration, even though those who took part in the riots were not immigrants. The war in the Middle East? Le Pen joined the great march against anti-Semitism on November 12, which, in the eyes of many French people, served to wash away the anti-Semitic past of a party founded by Nazi collaborators. The agricultural protests? An opportunity to take action against the EU's environmental policy, which is said to be damaging to rural areas, and to establish itself as a defender of farmers, a symbol, in Bardella's words, of “a modest and dignified France, a France that refuses to do so “decides to disappear.” .
There are polls predicting a Le Pen victory in the presidential election, but Camus warns: “It is a mistake to predict that.” And he points out that between the 42% that Le Pen achieved in the 2022 presidential election, and there is “a gap” between the 50% plus 1 required for the presidency. And perhaps the most difficult to overcome: that which consists in transforming the RN into a cross-class and all-embracing party, like the great social democratic and Christian democratic formations of the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. “Their victory is not fate,” the political scientist adds, “but if Marine Le Pen’s opponents want to win, they have to come back down to earth a little and deal with the problems that are causing discontent among the population. “ The expert believes that it is not enough to call the RN “Russia’s party”.
In Marseille, Le Pen and Bardella denounced what the candidate, echoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, called “Vanderlayism.” In his view, this form of macronism at EU level is a doctrine that undermines the sovereignty of states. Against this background, they no longer support Frexit (France's exit from the EU), as they did until 2019. The goal now is to change the EU from within. For the RN, the enemy is European environmental policy and immigration policy, which, according to their argument, leads to an opening of borders and a flooding of Europe with foreigners.
“It is up to the French and only them to decide who is allowed to enter our soil, who is allowed to stay and who is not,” Bardella defended. His speech was interrupted several times by thousands of militants and sympathizers chanting “On es chez nous!” (we are our house); a song from the old Front National. Some traditions never die.
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