Today’s notebook begins with an analysis by one expert, former American General Mark Hertling. The role of the United Arab Emirates is also interesting: Mohammed bin Zayed recently met with Putin
It doesn’t matter what weapon is used, effects count. And for now, the constant reports of a looming missile shortage in Vladimir Putin’s arsenal stand in contrast to the tragic situation in Ukrainian cities. Millions of people without light and water precisely because of the bombing. The resistance needs a shield to protect themselves from the threat, but generators are just as important. In the last package decided by the US, 200 were included along with the ammunition.One drop. Today’s notebook begins with an expert’s analysis, former American General Mark Hertling, one of the most interesting voices. Follow his ideas.
The new stage
Moscow will attempt to freeze the conflict, as it has done in other regional crises, pausing to reorganize its forces and resume the attack. Further mobilization is possible but may not be decisive, while Belarusian involvement seems unlikely. Instead, Iran’s role will grow by supplying weapons (drones, missiles). intended to continue the terror campaign by destroying infrastructure in Ukraine, a tactic to break citizens’ morale and force Zelenskyy to make concessions. The Resistance’s resolve is tested, but the Senior Officer believes he will not bow to blackmail.
Ukraine, in turn, will try to launch new offensives to the south and east, but will have to overcome negative factors: the length of supply lines, terrain features (rivers, canals), enemy defense, the use of new equipment during battles . Kyiv is also waiting for other demanding tasks, such as the reorganization of departments, the arrival of thousands of soldiers trained in the West, the formation of new units. Some experts insist on the insufficient number of armored vehicles (and the like) required to conduct integrated maneuvers.
Hertling, like other observers, affirms a concept: the army is coming out of terrible months, it has suffered casualties but has not been defeated. He will take advantage of the reduced front, the influx of reinforcements, the simpler logistics because it has shortened the routes. The former general then recognizes the importance of external support. NATO and the countries that contribute to the coalition cannot reduce humanitarian, military and diplomatic support. We need unity, especially when Ukrainian civilians are suffering the most. Perhaps this is the weakest front, domestic political considerations will prevail.
diplomacy
The UAE’s role is interesting, signaled by a Portal exclusivity. The Gulf Federation has favored direct negotiations in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia, talks on prisoner exchanges and product exports. The monarchy, although allied to the West, remained equally distant. The strongman, Mohammed bin Zayed, recently met with Putin. Connections to the superpower are also well known: many oligarchs have found a warm welcome in Dubai, guests of villas, luxurious skyscrapers, listed residences. Another detail related to diplomacy. Russia’s deputy foreign minister confirmed that there are stable phone exchanges with the Americans, one of the many channels waiting to be launched, along with contacts between intelligence agencies and those involving military leaders.
November 24, 2022 (change November 24, 2022 | 17:26)
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