There are still 16 days until Republicans in Iowa become the first in the country to select their preferred candidate for the 2024 election. An exclusive poll suggests Nikki Haley is the candidate best able to beat President Joe Biden.
Our poll of 984 likely voters shows she would beat Biden by five points if the election were held tomorrow.
By contrast, former President Donald Trump would win by three points while Ron DeSantis would lose by two points, reinforcing the feeling that his presidential campaign is on life support.
Shares of Haley, the former South Carolina governor, have risen in recent weeks, driven by a series of strong debate appearances and key endorsements.
And the results of our poll with JL Partners underscore her case that she is better positioned than other candidates to win the 2024 election.
JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters across the country from December 15-20. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, but show former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley performing best among Republican competitors against Joe Biden
Haley would beat President Joe Biden by five points if the 2024 election were tomorrow
That gives her 40 percent support to Biden's 35 percent in a head-to-head contest.
Trump would get 46 percent to Biden's 43 percent, while DeSantis would get 41 percent to Biden's 43 percent, all with a 3.1 percent margin of error.
Haley's advantage lies in her ability to win over Democrats. Our poll shows that she votes for one in ten Democrats, almost twice as many as her rivals.
But she's fighting with the Republican base. She receives 69 percent of Republican voters, while DeSantis (80 percent) and Trump (87 percent) can expect significantly more.
“This is a good poll for Nikki Haley,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.
“She's doing great among independents and, upon closer inspection, arguably has more room to grow, as one would expect a significant portion of Republicans who are currently wrong to eventually support her against Biden.”
“However, in its current form, this is an artificial image.” Haley convinces a significant number of Biden voters in the polls simply because she is not Trump.
“We expect that to change as voters on the left become more aware of their positions.”
“DeSantis, meanwhile, is struggling with voters at large. The great irony is that, on paper, DeSantis is the best candidate to beat Trump in the primaries because the Republican electorate is more conservative.”
The fieldwork was conducted before Haley answered a question about the causes of the Civil War. She made negative headlines for days because she didn't mention slavery.
However, Haley does not attract as many supporters among the Republican base as her rivals. About 69 percent of Republican supporters say they would vote for Haley in the general election if she were the nominee. But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are doing better
Trump, who accepted Haley's resignation as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in October 2018, remains the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination
State polls suggest Trump will have the advantage in Iowa when Republicans decide their nominee on January 15.
His voters tend to be more conservative than those in New Hampshire, which has a primary eight days later.
Still, a super PAC has stepped up its efforts in Iowa to capitalize on Haley's momentum and establish her as a top alternative to Trump before seeking even better results in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina.
According to a poll in New Hampshire, she trails Trump by just three points when other candidates drop out.
Experts now say that a nomination race that looked like just a Trump coronation could still turn out to be a real contest.
And our numbers show why that is: Haley is building a very different coalition of voters than the one that elected Trump in 2020.
Although she is losing some Trump supporters according to our flowcharts, she is gaining Biden supporters in 2020. At the same time, Biden's support drops by eight points if the election does not fall to Trump or DeSantis, both of whom appear to increase Democratic turnout.
Haley's coalition is very different from Trump's. She loses some support for Trump in 2020 but gains among independents and voters who went for Biden in 2020
An aerial view shows homes in Jesup, Iowa. Republican presidential candidates are currently crisscrossing Iowa as the Republican caucus draws closer to January 15th
Democratic strategists expect voters to swing back to Biden as the race tightens and the choice becomes clear.
But our survey also showed that voters are not happy about an 81-year-old running for re-election.
Six in 10 voters, including nearly a third of Democrats, believe Joe Biden should not run for president in 2024.
And nearly half of Democrats say it's not too late to replace him as their party's nominee.